Is Productivity Growth Bad?

Why Rising Productivity Is Cause for Worry

But history also tells us something else: Massive economic disruptions are typically accompanied by weak or negative productivity growth, because businesses have trouble raising money and operating efficiently. Output per hour stagnated in the two deepest postwar recessions, 1974-75 and 1981-82. During the worst of the Great Depression, 1929 to 1933, productivity plunged.

But there may be another, less benign, reason for rising productivity. In past downturns, educated professionals have escaped mainly unscathed. This time businesses are relentlessly hacking at their professional workforce—a tactic that boosts short-term productivity while hurting long-term growth. Rising productivity may be a sign of weakness, not strength.

Over the past year the number of employed professionals has fallen by 0.7%, a rare decline. Outside of the still-growing education and health-care occupations, the number of employed professionals has dropped by a dramatic 3.6%.

Cutting productive staff for short term rewards is definitely a negative for long term productivity. My guess is the management ranks are not as productive as the non-management ranks are however. My sense is their is more room to eliminate non-value added activity from management positions which will not harm long term productivity growth.

A good way to improve productivity is to reduce excessive pay for senior executives. As the money wasted on exorbitant pay that senior executives lavish on themselves is reduced the capital wasted on them can be better deployed in ways that will improve productivity.

Related: The Real Threat Is Decreased ProductivityManufacturing Productivity (data accuracy)Manufacturing Contracting Globally

Because of budget cuts in 2008, the preliminary figures published by the BEA go only through 2004—no help today. The new budget just put out by the Obama Administration boosts the BEA’s budget and specifically directs the agency to “produce new and expanded GDP-related statistics that uniquely measure the role of innovation.” That would fund better statistics on R&D and other intangible investments. But given the mammoth federal deficits, it still is not clear whether this request for extra funds will survive the coming congressional debates.

I hope that funding does come through. Accurate economic data is important to judge the state of the economy.

Comments

One response to “Is Productivity Growth Bad?”

  1. I definitely see a huge improvement of productivity in web application software development, myself.

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