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Economists Raise Projections for Second Half of 2009

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John Hunter

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Economists are raising projections for the USA economy in the second half of 2009. The predictions are still for an anemic economy growing at just 1.5% and with unemployment reaching 10.1%. Still I think if we achieve that we should feel lucky. Economists Raise U.S. Outlook as Recession Fades

Growth will average 1.5 percent in the July-to-December period, compared with last month’s 1.2 percent projection, according to the median of 57 forecasts in the survey taken from July 2 to July 8. The jobless rate will exceed 10 percent early next year and average 9.8 percent for 2010.
…
The economy probably shrank at a 1.8 percent rate from April to June, the latest survey showed, less than economists forecast last month. The U.S. will return to growth in the current quarter and expand 2.1 percent next year.
…
A separate report from the Commerce Department today showed the trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in May as exports jumped while imports of crude oil and auto parts slid. The gap between imports and exports decreased 9.8 percent to $26 billion, the smallest since November 1999, from $28.8 billion in April.

Unemployment will rise to 10.1 percent in the first quarter of 2010 from 9.5 percent last month, already the highest since August 1983, the survey of economists showed.

The trade deficit is still far to large. And the to move the economy in the right direction we need to continue reducing personal debt (and start reducing government debt).

Related: First Quarter GDP 2009 down 6.1% – When Will the Recession Be Over? – Warren Buffett Webcast on the Credit Crisis

Comments

2 responses to “Economists Raise Projections for Second Half of 2009”

  1. john Avatar
    john

    Until consumers wake up and cut up the credit cards we are likely to continue on the road we are currently on. I think it will take more than a 10% unemployment to cause people to really change their ways.

    Reply
  2. 2nd Quarter USA GDP down 1% at Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog

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