Investing Curiouscatblog

Author: John Hunter

  • Easiest Countries for Doing Business 2008

    Singapore is again ranked first for Ease of Doing Business by the World Bank. For some reason they call the report issued in any given year as the report for the next year (which makes no sense to me). The data shown below is for the year they released the report.

    Country 2008 2007 2006 2005
    Singapore 1 1 1 2
    New Zealand 2 2 2 1
    United States 3 3 3 3
    Hong Kong 4 4 5 6
    Denmark 5 5 7 7
    United Kingdom 6 6 6 5
    Ireland 7 8 10 10
    Canada 8 7 4 4
    other countries of interest
    Japan 12 12 11 12
    Germany 25 20 21 21
    France 31 31 35 47
    Korea 23 30 23 23
    Mexico 56 44 43 62
    China 83 83 93 108
    India 122 120 134 138
    Brazil 125 122 121 122

    The rankings include ranking of various aspects of running a business. Some rankings for 2008: starting a business (New Zealand 1st, Singapore 10th, USA 6th, Japan 64th), Dealing with Construction Permits (St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1st, Singapore and New Zealand 2nd, USA 26th, China 176th), Employing Workers (Singapore and the USA 1st, Germany 142, Korea 152), protecting investors (New Zealand 1st, Singapore 2nd, Hong Kong 3rd, Malaysia 4th, USA 5th), enforcing contracts (Singapore 1, Hong Kong 2, USA 6, China 18), getting credit (Malaysia 1; UK and Hong Kong 2; Singapore, New Zealand and USA 5th), paying taxes (Maldives 1, Hong Kong 3, USA 46, Japan 112, China 132).

    These rankings are not the final word on exactly where each country truly ranks but they do provide a valuable source of information. With this type of data there is plenty of room for judgment and issues with the data. Several of my posts, from my other blogs, that I recommend on this topic: The Future is Engineering, Science and Engineering in Global Economics (more…)

  • What Does That Say About the Field of Economics?

    So few economists foresaw the current credit disaster, New York Times interview of James Galbraith.

    NYT: there are at least 15,000 professional economists in this country, and you’re saying only two or three of them foresaw the mortgage crisis?
    Dr. Galbraith: Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three.

    NYT: What does that say about the field of economics, which claims to be a science?
    Dr. Galbraith: It’s an enormous blot on the reputation of the profession. There are thousands of economists. Most of them teach. And most of them teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless.

    NYT: You’re referring to the Washington-based conservative philosophy that rejects government regulation in favor of free-market worship?
    Dr. Galbraith: Reagan’s economists worshiped the market, but Bush didn’t worship the market. Bush simply turned over regulatory authority to his friends. It enabled all the shady operators and card sharks in the system to come to dominate how we finance.

    Related: Rodgers on the US and Chinese Economies – Greenspan Says He Was Wrong On Regulation – Leverage, Complex Deals and Mania – What is Economics?

  • Why America Needs an Economic Strategy

    In a recent article in Business Week Michael E. Porter makes some excellent points – Why America Needs an Economic Strategy:

    First, the U.S. has an unparalleled environment for entrepreneurship and starting new companies.

    Second, U.S. entrepreneurship has been fed by a science, technology, and innovation machine that remains by far the best in the world. While other countries increase their spending on research and development, the U.S. remains uniquely good at coaxing innovation out of its research and translating those innovations into commercial products.
    …
    Third, the U.S. has the world’s best institutions for higher learning, and they are getting stronger. They equip students with highly advanced skills and act as magnets for global talent, while playing a critical role in innovation and spinning off new businesses.

    Fourth, America has been the country with the strongest commitment to competition and free markets.
    …
    An inadequate rate of reinvestment in science and technology is hampering America’s feeder system for entrepreneurship. Research and development as a share of GDP has actually declined, while it has risen in many other countries.
    …
    A creeping relaxation of antitrust enforcement has allowed mergers to dominate markets. Ironically, these mergers are often justified by “free market” rhetoric. The U.S. is seeing more intervention in competition, with protectionism and favoritism on the rise. Few Americans know that the U.S. ranks only 20th among countries in openness to capital flows, 21st on low trade barriers, and 35th on absence of distortions from taxes and subsidies

    I have discussed similar idea in this blog and the Curious Cat Science and Engineering Blog: The Future is Engineering – Engineering the Future Economy – Science Gap – Not Understanding Capitalism

  • 30 Year Mortgage Rate and Federal Funds Rate Chart

    More dramatic evidence that changing in the federal funds rate do not lead to similar changes in 30 year fixed mortgage rates. It is true the last few months are very unusual times for the credit market. However, the current lack of correlation is not the exception, the graph clearly shows there is very little correlation between changes in the two interest rates.

    30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate 2000-2008

    Related: historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate – Affect of Fed Funds Rates Changes on Mortgage Rates – posts on financial literacy – Jumbo v. Regular Fixed Mortgage Rates: by Credit Score

    For more data, see graphs of the federal funds rate versus mortgage rates for 1980-1999. Source data: federal funds rates – 30 year mortgage rates

  • Corrupt Officials Have Fled China With As Much As $100 billion

    As many as 10,000 corrupt government officials have fled China with $100 billion.

    he joins as many as 10,000 corrupt Chinese officials who have fled the country over the past decade, taking as much as $100 billion of public funds with them, according to an estimate by Li Chengyan, head of Peking University’s Anticorruption Research Institute.

    More unexpected, however, was the heavy press coverage that Yang’s walkabout attracted in a country where the government is generally reluctant to wash its dirty linens in public. That suggests that “the government is sending a signal” that it regards “the number of officials fleeing as a very important problem which needs to be solved,” says Mao Zhaohui, director of anticorruption studies at Beijing’s Renmin University.

    Corruption is pervasive at almost every level of the government, and it is a major factor eroding faith in the ruling Communist Party. Earlier this year, after thousands of schoolchildren died in the Sichuan earthquake, the Internet was ablaze with accusations that local officials had taken bribes to approve substandard materials for school construction.

    Chinese President Hu Jintao has repeatedly declared that the fight against fraud is a top government priority and courts have handed down heavy sentences against prominent offenders. Last year, the former head of the Chinese Food and Drug Administration, Zheng Xiaoyu, was executed after being found guilty of taking bribes to approve thousands of new drugs.

    China has many strong winds for economic growth. Corruption is an anchor holding back their progress.

    Related: Capitalism in China – Not Understanding Capitalism – Oil Consumption by Country – Data on Leading Manufacturing Countries – Curious Cat Economics Search Engine

  • JPMorgan Chase Freezes Mortgage Foreclosures

    JPMorgan Chase Freezes Foreclosures

    For the next 90 days, JPMorgan will not place any new homes into foreclosure. The banking behemoth, which acquired troubled lender Washington Mutual on Sept. 25, says it hopes to modify terms for 400,000 homeowners, accounting for $70 billion in loans. Among the steps it is taking: eliminating toxic “pay option” loans, offering new loan terms to homeowners before they default
    …
    According to the most recent data compiled by the Hope Now Alliance of lenders, counselers, and other industry players, lenders started the foreclosure process on 565,000 homeowners in this year’s third quarter. Some 265,000 homes were actually foreclosed on, nearly twice the number from the third quarter of 2007. Moreover, more than 2.2 million homeowners are more than 60 days delinquent in their mortgage payments, also a near doubling from last year.

    FDIC Chairman, Sheila Bair, has been encouraging banks to take such action and instituted such action on the mortgages the FDIC acquired when they took over Indymac – Loan Modification Program for Distressed Indymac Mortgage Loans

    IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB (“Indymac Federal”) will implement a new program to systematically modify troubled mortgages. The program is designed to achieve affordable and sustainable mortgage payments for borrowers and increase the value of distressed mortgages by rehabilitating them into performing loans. This in turn will maximize value for the FDIC, as well as improve returns to the creditors of the former IndyMac Bank and to investors in those mortgages.

    Related: Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders (July 2007) – Foreclosure Filings Continue to Rise – Historical 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record (Sep 2007) – 2nd Largest Bank Failure in USA History

  • Scott Adams on Investing

    In his blog Scott Adams, author of Dilbert, provides often quite intelligent and interesting thoughts. In a recent post he wrote on investing and Diversification:

    When I first started making serious Dilbert money, I let experts manage half of it, and I managed the rest, as a hedge against both the experts and myself. The experts invested in Enron, Worldcom, and a number of other companies that promptly exploded. The experts reduced their portion of my money by about a third over five years. (The experts work for one of the most respected financial institutions on Earth, by the way.) My own investments did better, precisely because they were more diversified. So now I handle my own investments, probably incompetently.

    I didn’t own much in the way of stocks for the past several years, thanks to not using professional advisors. A big chunk of my money has been in California Municipal bonds of various types, and all are insured.
    …
    In order to diversify more, I started migrating money over to the stock market during this recent plunge. The market could go a lot lower still, but this is either the beginning of the end of the United States as we know it, in which case it doesn’t matter how I invested, or it is a once-in-a-lifetime stock buying opportunity. It was an easy decision.

    Related: Stock Market Decline – Warren Buffett on Diversification – Investment Allocations Make A Big Difference

    Dilbert comic on investors

  • National Debt Down Almost $1 Billion Yesterday

    The USA national debt decreased almost $1 billion yesterday. If it decreased by $1 billion dollars a day in just 10,526 days the USA government would be out of debt. That is just under 29 years, that doesn’t seem so bad. Unfortunately the decrease yesterday is not likely the start of a new trend (it is just daily variation).

    In the last month the debt is up over $580 Billion. At that rate, well lets just say if that rate continued long we would be in even more serious trouble than we have been placed in by the amazingly irresponsible behavior of the politicians increasing taxes on our grandchildren (with massive spending they chose to fund by huge tax increases on our grandchildren) have been doing the last 5 years. In the last year they have spent $1.46 Trillion more than they paid for (which will have to be paid for by future taxes – although the recent decision to purchase $125 billion in bank stocks perhaps opens another option for the the government to start buying companies and use profits they make to pay off the debt they are taking on).

    The current debt stands at $10,525,823,144,117. That is a bit over $10.5 Trillion.

    Related: True Level of USA Federal Deficit – USA Federal Debt Now $516,348 Per Household – Washington Paying Out Money it Doesn’t Have

  • Treasury Bought $125B in Bank Stocks

    On Tuesday the United States Treasury department purchased $125 billion of bank stocks becoming one of the largest stockholders in the world instantly.

    $25 billion was invested in Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

    $15 billion was invested in Bank of America and $10 billion in Merrill Lynch (which is being acquired by Bank of America).

    $10 billion was invested in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. And the treasury department invested $3 billion in Bank of New York Mellon $2 billion in State Street.

    Related: Goldman Sachs Rakes In Profit in Credit Crisis (Nov 2007) – Warren Buffett Webcast on the Credit Crisis – Rodgers on the US and Chinese Economies (Feb 2008) – Credit Crisis

  • Personal Finance Basics: Long-term Care Insurance

    Long term care insurance is an important part of a personal financial portfolio. It provides insurance for for expenses beyond medical and nursing care for chronic illnesses (assisted living expenses). So while looking at your personal finance insurance needs (health insurance, disability insurance, automobile insurance, homeowners [or rental] insurance [with personal liability insurance – or separate personal liability insurance] and life insurance don’t forget to consider long term care insurance.

    Can You Afford Long-Term-Care Insurance?

    Long-term care is likely to be most Americans’ greatest expense of all in retirement. A private room in a nursing home costs $76,460 annually on average, or $209 a day, and Medicare typically won’t cover it.
    …
    AARP estimates that a 65-year-old in good health can expect to pay between $2,000 and $3,000 a year for a policy that covers nursing-home and home care.

    “About 70 percent of individuals over age 65 will require at least some type of long-term care services during their lifetime. Over 40 percent will need care in a nursing home for some period of time.” – National Clearinghouse for Long-Term Care Information

    Advice on buying long term care insurance from AARP, the Department of Health and Human Services and Consumer Reports.
    (more…)