Investing Curiouscatblog

Category: Financial Literacy

  • Teaching Children About Money Matters

    In response to: What do you think? Should you discuss finances with your children?

    My wife and I both grew up in households where our parents talked about their money situation and taught us the basics of finance, but didn’t disclose any information about how much they made, their savings, their debt, or their overall expenses.
    …
    We both waffle back and forth on these two perspectives and right now we’ve settled somewhere in between. Our children know we have debt, but don’t know the amount. They know I make pretty decent money, but don’t know how much. Our older boys pretty much know the details of our monthly expenses, such as the cable bill, phone bill, utility bills, etc. We’ve shared this with them to help them appreciate things a little more.

    I definitely think talking about finances with children is important. I don’t have kids, but I was one 🙂 I don’t think you need to get into exactly what the figures are to have valuable conversations. Far too many people become adults with far too poor an understanding of personal finance. Given how important managing money is today I think it is like hunter-gathers not teaching a kid how to hunt.

    Books: Money Sense for Kids – Growing Money: A Complete Investing Guide for Kids – The Motley Fool Investment Guide for Teens – Raising Financially Fit Kids – A Smart Girl’s Guide to Money: How to Make It, Save It, And Spend It

    A few blog posts on teaching children about money: Personal Finance for Children and Pre-Teens – 5 Tips for Savvy Parents – Teach your teen the basics of money management

    Related: Questions You Should Ask About Your Investments – Why Americans Are Going Broke – How Not to Convert Home Equity

  • Not Understanding Capitalism

    The day the dream of global free- market capitalism died

    The implications of this decision are evident: there will have to be far greater regulation of such institutions. The Fed has provided a valuable form of insurance to the investment banks. Indeed, that is already evident from what has happened in the stock market since the rescue: the other big investment banks have enjoyed sizeable jumps in their share prices (see chart below). This is moral hazard made visible. The Fed decided that a money market “strike” against investment banks is the equivalent of a run on deposits in a commercial bank. It concluded that it must, for this reason, open the monetary spigots in favour of such institutions. Greater regulation must be on the way.

    The lobbies of Wall Street will, it is true, resist onerous regulation of capital requirements or liquidity, after this crisis is over. They may succeed. But, intellectually, their position is now untenable.

    The intellectually depravity of such claims were obvious well before. Two problems make that truth less important. First, few actually believe in intellectual rigor any longer. Second, huge payments to politicians from those wishing to receive special favors from the government work (not very surprisingly). So given the lack of intellect and the alternative of just rewarding those that pay you huge sums of money it is no surprise politicians turned against capitalism and instead gave favors to a few that paid them well.

    Maybe the latest huge bailout will change how things are done. I doubt it. New rules will be put in place. Plenty of people will pay politicians plenty of money to assure their methods of subverting the intent of those rules are allowed to continue. To change things you would need to vastly improve the intellectual rigor of decision making. That is unlikely, but if it happens it will be plenty obvious from how debate is carried out.
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  • Homeowners Won’t Cut the Price

    It has long been the case that home owners refuse to accept falling prices and choose to demand higher prices than the market demands in a falling market. Therefore when prices should fall (to find buyers) instead the sales decrease as buyers don’t decrease prices to a level buyers are willing to pay. Be It Ever So Illogical: Homeowners Who Won’t Cut the Price

    So the couple, who both have finance jobs in the technology industry, told their real estate agent that they wanted to offer $1.575 million. He told them that the owner wouldn’t even listen to such a low bid. The owner’s attitude was “we’ll just stay here until we sell it for 1.875,” the agent said, “even if it takes years.”

    Three years ago, when the real estate bubble was still inflating, this sort of standoff was the exception. It’s the norm today. Overall home sales have fallen a remarkable 33 percent since the summer of 2005. Home prices, on the other hand, continued to rise until 2006 and are now only 5 to 10 percent below where they were in mid-2005, according to various measures.

  • Real Free Credit Report

    From the official US Federal Trade Commission site:

    A recent amendment to the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act requires each of the nationwide consumer reporting companies – Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion – to provide you with a free copy of your credit report, at your request, once every 12 months. But there’s only one online source authorized to do so. That’s annualcreditreport.com. Beware of other sites that may look and sound similar.

    Viewing your credit report is an important step to financial security. You should review your credit reports annually (at least) to correct and any errors. Also doing so can be a tool to help you spot identity theft. The credit report site also has a large frequently asked question section with answers to questions like: What is a credit score? How do I request a “fraud alert” be placed on my file? Should I order all my credit reports at one time or space them out over 12 months? (I would suggest spreading the requests out during the year myself).

    Reposting, original is from last January.

  • Bond Yields: 2005-2008

    graph of 10 year bond rates

    From January 2005 to July 2007 the Federal Funds Rate was steadily increased. The rate was held for a year. Since then the rate has been decreasing (dramatically, recently). As you can see from the chart, 10 year bond yields have been much less variable. The chart also shows 10 year corporate bond yields increasing in February when the federal funds rate fell 100 basis points.

    Is the worst over, or just beginning?

    The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury currently stands at about 3.33%, down from nearly 4% about a month ago.
    …
    If rates continue to fall, they could hit not only a new low for the year – the 10-year briefly touched 3.28% in January – but could come close to falling below the 3.07% level they hit in June 2003, which was a 45-year low at the time.

    Treasury bond yields are down but a huge part of the reason is a “flight to quality,” where investors are reluctant to hold other bonds (so they buy treasuries when they sell those bonds). Therefore other bond yields (and mortgage rates) are not decreasing (the data in the chart is a bit old – the yields may well decrease some for both 10 year bonds once the March data is posted, though I would expect the spread between treasuries be larger than it was in January).

    Data from the federal reserve – corporate Aaa – corporate Baa – ten year treasury – fed funds

    Related: 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates versus the Fed Funds Rate – After Tax Return on Municipal Bonds

  • Uncertain Economic Times

    So lets say you have a 401(k) and are adding to it regularly, you own your house, you have no credit card debts, you are paying off your car loan and overall your financial house is in fairly good order. Still you keep hearing the news about credit crisis, mortgage meltdown, dollar depreciation… It is enough to make you nervous but what should you do?

    Frankly very little in the macro economy has much impact on what is a smart long term strategy. Should you move your retirement money into a money market fund, because of the risks of stocks now? No. If you are good enough to time the market you are already amazingly rich (or will be soon). But either no one is able to do this or next to no one is. Occasionally you might get lucky and time things right but being able to consistently do so over 40 years is just not something that happens.

    So what you should do now is what you should always do. Have cash savings. Pay off your mortgage (don’t over-leverage yourself – don’t take out equity just because you have some). Save for retirement. Have health insurance. Don’t take on credit card debt (or most other debt). Keep up your employment skills (learn new skills…). Diversify your investments (stocks, international stocks, real estate, cash…).

    People often get careless when the overall economy is good. And so maybe you failed to do what you should have been doing then. But the right thing to do today is essentially the right thing to do always. For example, Americans are drowning in debt. They were also drowning in debt 3 years ago. That problem is the same. If you have too much debt you should fix that. Not because of all the fear today, but because to much debt is always bad. You should not take out too much debt in the first place and if you have to much you should fix it whether the economy is strong or weak.
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  • 1,000 True Fans

    1,000 True Fans by Kevin Kelly

    The long tail is famously good news for two classes of people; a few lucky aggregators, such as Amazon and Netflix, and 6 billion consumers. Of those two, I think consumers earn the greater reward from the wealth hidden in infinite niches.

    But the long tail is a decidedly mixed blessing for creators. Individual artists, producers, inventors and makers are overlooked in the equation. The long tail does not raise the sales of creators much, but it does add massive competition and endless downward pressure on prices.
    …
    Assume conservatively that your True Fans will each spend one day’s wages per year in support of what you do. That “one-day-wage” is an average, because of course your truest fans will spend a lot more than that. Let’s peg that per diem each True Fan spends at $100 per year. If you have 1,000 fans that sums up to $100,000 per year, which minus some modest expenses, is a living for most folks.
    …
    I am suggesting there is a home for creatives in between poverty and stardom. Somewhere lower than stratospheric bestsellerdom, but higher than the obscurity of the long tail.

    Another interesting idea from Kevin Kelly. I like real life examples of applying economic and financial thinking, which I think his post does well. We have more options that just working for some organization. I have a bit of work to do to gain myself 1,000 fans and quite a bit more to get to 1,000 true fans. But I am making some progress in that direction.

    Related: Who Influences Your Thinking – Street Use with Kevin Kelly – Signs You Have a Great Job… or Not – Curious Cat Investing Search

  • Warren Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders

    As usual, Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders is packed with wisdom. Berkshire Hathaway 2007 Letter to Shareholders:

    We will soon purchase 60% of Marmon and will acquire virtually all of the balance within six years. Our initial outlay will be $4.5 billion, and the price of our later purchases will be based on a formula tied to earnings.
    …
    This deal was done in the way Jay would have liked. We arrived at a price using only Marmon’s financial statements, employing no advisors and engaging in no nit-picking. I knew that the business would be exactly as the Pritzkers represented, and they knew that we would close on the dot, however chaotic financial markets might be. During the past year, many large deals have been renegotiated or killed entirely. With the Pritzkers, as with Berkshire, a deal is a deal.
    …
    Charlie and I look for companies that have a) a business we understand; b) favorable long-term economics; c) able and trustworthy management; and d) a sensible price tag. We like to buy the whole business or, if management is our partner, at least 80%. When control-type purchases of quality aren’t available, though, we are also happy to simply buy small portions of great businesses by way of stock market purchases….

    A truly great business must have an enduring “moat” that protects excellent returns on invested capital. The dynamics of capitalism guarantee that competitors will repeatedly assault any business “castle” that is earning high returns. Therefore a formidable barrier such as a company’s being the lowcost producer (GEICO, Costco) or possessing a powerful world-wide brand (Coca-Cola, Gillette, American Express) is essential for sustained success. Business history is filled with “Roman Candles,” companies whose moats proved illusory and were soon crossed.
    …
    Susan came to Borsheims 25 years ago as a $4-an-hour saleswoman. Though she lacked a managerial background, I did not hesitate to make her CEO in 1994. She’s smart, she loves the business, and she loves her associates. That beats having an MBA degree any time. (An aside: Charlie and I are not big fans of resumes. Instead, we focus on brains, passion and integrity.
    …
    I should emphasize that we do not measure the progress of our investments by what their market prices do during any given year. Rather, we evaluate their performance by the two methods we apply to the businesses we own. The first test is improvement in earnings, with our making due allowance for industry conditions. The second test, more subjective, is whether their “moats” – a metaphor for the superiorities they possess that make life difficult for their competitors – have widened during the year.
    …
    You will recall that in our catastrophe insurance business, we are always ready to trade increased volatility in reported earnings in the short run for greater gains in net worth in the long run.
    …
    The U.S. dollar weakened further in 2007 against major currencies, and it’s no mystery why: Americans like buying products made elsewhere more than the rest of the world likes buying products made in the U.S. Inevitably, that causes America to ship about $2 billion of IOUs and assets daily to the rest of the world. And over time, that puts pressure on the dollar.
    …
    What is no puzzle, however, is why CEOs opt for a high investment assumption: It lets them report higher earnings. And if they are wrong, as I believe they are, the chickens won’t come home to roost until long after they retire.

    A must read for all investors.

    Related: Buffett Letter to Shareholders (from last year) – Live From Omaha (2007) – Overview of Warren Buffett

  • Great Advice from Warren Buffett

    Great advice from Warren Buffett. He spoke to students at UTexas at Austin business school and one of the students, Dang Le, posted notes of the discussion online. The internet is great.

    On diversification:

    If you are a professional and have confidence, then I would advocate lots of concentration. For everyone else, if it’s not your game, participate in total diversification. The economy will do fine over time. Make sure you don’t buy at the wrong price or the wrong time. That’s what most people should do, buy a cheap index fund and slowly dollar cost average into it.

    Great advice. Warren Buffett uses great concentration (little diversification) but you are not Warren Buffett.

    There are $10 billion mistakes of omission that no one knows about; they don’t show up in the accounting. In 1994 we paid $400 worth of Berkshire stock for a shoe company. The company is now worth 0, but the stock is worth $3.5 billion. So now, I’m happy to see Berkshire go down since it reduces the size of my mistake. In 1973 Tom Murphy offered us NBC for $35 million, but we turned it down. That was a huge mistake of omission.
    …
    Getting turned down by HBS [Harvard Business School] was one of the best things that could have happened to me, bad luck can turn out to be good.
    …
    We did an informal office survey by looking at the total tax footprint versus the total income. I earned 46 million and paid a tax rate of 17.5%. My rate was the lowest, the average was 33%, and my cleaning lady paid 40%. The system is tilted towards the rich. The Forbes 400 total net worth has gone from 220 billion to 1.54 trillion, an increase of 7-to-1. You see in legislature that there is lobbying carried on by the powerful over issues such as the estate tax and carried interest for private equity investments. We need to flatten income and payroll taxes, and those making under $30,000 shouldn’t be bothered.

    It is hard to beat reading Warren Buffet’s ideas on investing and economics.

    Related: Buffett on Taxes – The Berkshire Hathaway Meeting 2007 – Buffett’s 2006 Letter to Shareholders – Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report – books on investing

  • Americans are Drowning in Debt

    The story is a bit boring. People spend money they don’t have. But it is hard to ignore the story when it is so important. And so many people are foolishly ruining their financial future. When credit cards put you in jeopardy

    Consumers have racked up more than $2.2 trillion in purchases and cash advances on major credit cards in just the last year. And it’s become a habit for them to spend more than they have. The overall credit card debt grew by 315 percent from 1989 to 2006, according to public policy research firm Demos. To compound the problem, fewer people are paying their credit cards bills on time.

    Please stop. Don’t spend money you don’t have. Don’t think those political “leaders” that practice the same spending money they don’t have financial management are worthy of respect and don’t follow the bad example they continue to set.

    The article gives some tips. I would suggest the tips for using your credit cards I have blogged about earlier. But the main thing is really simple: don’t use your credit card for loans – pay off your full balance every month. Save money for things you want. When you have the money saved, then buy them. This is not rocket science it is pretty darn easy. Don’t spend what you don’t have.

    Related: Too Much Stuff – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap – Poor Customer Service from Discover Card – Trying to Keep up with the Jones – Raising Taxes on Future Generations