Investing Curiouscatblog

Category: Real Estate

  • Urban Planning

    Next Stop, Tysons – good article on urban planning and real estate development in Northern Virginia. Urban planning can create excellent real estate development opportunities but it is not easy. It is easy to look around the country and see how poorly planned development has been resulting in huge wastes of time through long commutes. But it is not surprising, smart planning requires long term thinking which is often lacking. Arlington made excellent decisions in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s (and I am sure plenty of less than perfect ones too). The wrong decisions could have been made during that process that would have greatly reduced the benefits. Arlington now seems pretty well set and now the path toward smart development is the default position. Still they have challenges.

    Fairfax, which borders Arlington, made poorer decisions in the past. Now they have difficult decisions. It will be interesting to see how they can do. Both counties have a huge incentive to push for more subway capacity but we will see if they do it. They can’t wait until the need is urgent. Any plans will likely take decades to bring online. Plans have been floated for many years but still nothing has been decided.

    Ballston in 1979. Most notably, the surge in development along the corridor has produced relatively little additional automobile traffic, which is why Fairfax, Montgomery County and other suburbs are invoking the high-density model as the cure to their traffic woes.

    “If we don’t change the old pattern of growth and development, we will continue to get what we have always gotten,” said Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors.

    It is not going to be a simple process and many years of tough decisions, good management, good planning will need to follow any decisions made now. But the options of clustering high density development seems like the best bet for success to me. One strategy of a real estate investor can be to find a good long term (say 10+ years) play (like Arlington) and invest before the prices skyrocket. Then just sit back as the likely takes place and watch your investment grow.

    Arlington now has fairly high housing prices, the question is likely whether they have skyrocketed yet (many say they have – I am not so sure, they are not cheap but for what the potential for the area is they could go much higher). It certainly is not as great an opportunity as it was in 1995. The government sure feels flush – spending over $80 million each for 2 high school in the next couple of years (replacing schools build a few decades ago – school population is actually shrinking not growing)! Real estate taxes have been increasing dramatically each year to pay for more and more spending.

  • More Non Bubble Bursting in Housing

    Housing sales drop in 40 states:

    Nationally, sales declined by 10.1 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the same period a year ago. The national median price – the point where half sell for more and half sell for less — fell to $219,300, down 2.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005.

    While there is no agreed upon definition of bubble bursting, a almost 3% decline certainly can’t be seen as a “bursting bubble” can it?

    In all, median home prices fell in 49 percent of the 149 metropolitan areas surveyed, the largest percentage of areas showing price declines in the 27-year history of the Realtors’ price survey.

    Again hardly data of bubble bursting proportions.

    Related: Coming Collapse in Housing? – Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – Colored Bubbles

  • Mortgage Defaults: Latest Woe for Housing

    The main point of this article is the increasing evidence of problems due to loose underwriting for mortgages of the last few years. Mortgage defaults: Latest woe for housing:

    The rate of subprime borrowers who are more than a month late on a mortgage payment was 13.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006, the latest numbers available, up from a 10.5 percent delinquency rate in the third quarter of 2005.

    The overall mortgage delinquency rate was 4.7 percent in the third quarter, just slightly above the 4.4 percent rate of a year earlier, when it was a historic low.

    The problem of loose credit is real and important. But isn’t it really amazing how 4.4% is the historic low for mortgages over a month late? That seems really high too me. Obviously 13.2% for sub-prime loans shows how risky it is to take out such a loan. In my opinion, the delinquency rate for over 90 days late is a more important figure (but these numbers can serve as a leading indicator).

    Related: articles on investing – investment dictionary – How Not to Convert Equity

  • Exurbs Hardest Hit in Recent Housing Slump

    Exurbs hardest hit in recent housing slump:

    While the U.S. housing downturn has depressed once-thriving real estate markets around the nation, far-flung suburbs of major cities have suffered the most abrupt market correction. Home construction in these distant exurbs has slowed and prices and sales have fallen more than those of close-in suburban neighbors since a five-year U.S. housing boom ended in the summer of 2005.

    Average home prices in Loudon County, Virginia, 35 miles outside of Washington, D.C., fell roughly 11 percent in 2006, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. By contrast, Virginia’s Arlington County, which hugs the nation’s capital, saw a price decline of only about 2 percent.

    And, so far there has been no “bust.” As I mentioned previously I did not, and do not, see a “bursting of the real estate bubble” overall.

    Related: Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – real estate investing articles

  • View Rental Prices in Your Area

    Rentometer is a cool interactive web site that maps rental prices near your rental (either as a renter or an investor). The site is new and expanding so the features are a bit limited now but still it is worthwhile and the new features will really make it great (active rental listings…).

    Related: Real Estate Investing Articles

  • Coming Collapse in Housing?

    I do not believe we will have a huge decline in most housing markets see: Housing and the Economy. Still the article below is packed with great information. Definitely worth reading. Other related posts: 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates – Europe and USA Housing Price Boom – How Not to Convert Equity – Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble?

    The Coming Collapse in Housing November 17, 2006

    by John Mauldin

    I am convinced that the housing bubble is gigantic and will burst before long with massive implications here and abroad. In fact, it’s the key to the global economic outlook.

    Setting the Scene

    House prices in recent years have leaped well beyond their normal relationships to the CPI.

    Even when the increasing size of houses–the McMansion effect–is excluded, inflation-adjusted house prices have jumped as never before in over a century.

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  • Europe and USA Housing Price Boom

    The booms in Spanish and Irish real estate make the US real estate boom look timid

    Central banks are concerned that recent pursuance of housing price growth in both countries wasn’t supported by fundamentals. The Irish national Bank stated in its latest financial stability report that the 2006 price surge wasn’t expected. In Spain, the Central bank has already issued some warnings regarding credit risk monitoring. The IMF Directors noted “that an abrupt correction cannot be ruled out” in Ireland.

    Cotis from the OECD has acknowledged that several big countries are at risk of a housing downturn: with the USA, France and the UK topping the list. But, given the extreme dependence of both Spain and Ireland on housing, both countries are even more exposed to a sharp correction.

  • How Not to Convert Equity

    CNNMoney is not exactly intellectual discussion of economic and investing issues but normally it offers fairly good material for the large number of people. Especially those who really don’t want to read Warren Buffett or Brad Setser. Still the following quote in their article, Cashing in on hot real estate is just wrong:

    They also have one extremely valuable asset: a house in the now trendy Silverlake neighborhood of Los Angeles that’s worth $1 million, nearly four times what they paid in 1995. The equity, Handel says, is “lovely,” but it’s not doing them much good right now.
    …
    San Diego-based certified financial planners Christopher Van Slyke and Terry Green recommend an unconventional plan: taking out a new $500,000 ARM.

    Handel and Laport can pay off their existing mortgage before the rate rises and retire their other debts. They can put the remaining $200,000 into stock and bond funds.

    To be sure, borrowing against a house to put the proceeds into the market rarely makes sense. But in Handel and Laport’s case it does because so much of their net worth is tied up in their home, and the super-hot L.A. real estate market looks primed for a fall…

    They can convert equity that might melt away.

    They can what? In no way does increasing their leverage convert equity that might melt away. Any amount of “melting away” will still happen after this increase in leverage – no conversion has happened. They still have a full ownership interest in the real estate. If the value of their house fell $300,000 before or after this supposed “conversion” they would “lose” (on paper) the same amount: $300,000. The investment risk for the house has not changed (for the whole portfolio you could argue it has but that gets complicated and subject to debate).
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  • 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates

    Fairly frequently I am asked, by friends, for investing advice. One topic I am asked about frequently is mortgages (locking in rates, etc.). Often they are concerned about what a Federal Reserve decision to raise or lower rates will effect the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. Essentially the decision by the Fed won’t have any predictable impact (this is not the complete truth but close enough for the question being asked – this article has more, though it still just provides a cursory view of the situation).
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  • Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble?

    re: Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? – Dan Gilmor blog post

    I doubt we are at the end of the bubble. However, financial bubbles are very difficult to time. My guess is the bubble will continue for over a year for most, if not all locations in the USA. And unless the bubble continues and prices reach levels much higher than they are now, the end of the bubble will not be dramatic decline of prices (say an drop in prices of over 25%) in most locations.

    Manhattan (with historically very volatile prices) and certain other locations will likely have dramatic declines. But overall the real estate market will slow down (fewer sales) greatly and may experience say a 5 year period where prices decline slightly (or increase slightly). Real Estate normally does not behave the same way the stock market does when a bubble breaks, but we will see what actually happens.
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