Investing Curiouscatblog

Category: Tips

  • Beating the Market

    For those that don’t find picking stocks fun it is nice to know that just investing in indexes is likely the best option for almost everyone. I have much of my retirement assets invested in index funds. I still think I can beat the market (though the results of the last few months have not been kind) but the amount I invest in individual stocks is not a huge percentage of my portfolio. I still like Google, for example, and in fact might well be buying more this week (it is down over 10% since I added to my position a couple weeks ago). Can You Beat the Market? It’s a $100 Billion Question

    In 2006, the last year for which he has comprehensive data, this total came to $99.2 billion. Assuming that it grew in 2007 at the average rate of the last two decades, the amount for last year was more than $100 billion. Such a total is noteworthy for its sheer size and its growth over the years – in 1980, for example, the comparable total was just $7 billion, according to Professor French.
    …
    From 1986 to 2006, according to his calculations, the proportion of the aggregate market cap that is invested in index funds more than doubled, to 17.9 percent. As a result, the negative-sum game played by active investors has grown ever more negative.

    The bottom line is this: The best course for the average investor is to buy and hold an index fund for the long term. Even if you think you have compelling reasons to believe a particular trade could beat the market, the odds are still probably against you.

    Interesting. I am surprised by the rapid increase in the total expense of trying to beat the market. I guess all those wall street bonuses add up. In my opinion the article does not provide adequate support the claims made, but I think overall the claim are sensible (based on numerous studies of results). The odds of beating the market yourself are very low. And the odds of paying the right people to beat the market for you are likely not worth the cost (in the market today).

    Related: Advice from Warren Buffett – Stop Picking Stocks? – 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update – Feb 2008

  • Great Advice from Warren Buffett

    Great advice from Warren Buffett. He spoke to students at UTexas at Austin business school and one of the students, Dang Le, posted notes of the discussion online. The internet is great.

    On diversification:

    If you are a professional and have confidence, then I would advocate lots of concentration. For everyone else, if it’s not your game, participate in total diversification. The economy will do fine over time. Make sure you don’t buy at the wrong price or the wrong time. That’s what most people should do, buy a cheap index fund and slowly dollar cost average into it.

    Great advice. Warren Buffett uses great concentration (little diversification) but you are not Warren Buffett.

    There are $10 billion mistakes of omission that no one knows about; they don’t show up in the accounting. In 1994 we paid $400 worth of Berkshire stock for a shoe company. The company is now worth 0, but the stock is worth $3.5 billion. So now, I’m happy to see Berkshire go down since it reduces the size of my mistake. In 1973 Tom Murphy offered us NBC for $35 million, but we turned it down. That was a huge mistake of omission.
    …
    Getting turned down by HBS [Harvard Business School] was one of the best things that could have happened to me, bad luck can turn out to be good.
    …
    We did an informal office survey by looking at the total tax footprint versus the total income. I earned 46 million and paid a tax rate of 17.5%. My rate was the lowest, the average was 33%, and my cleaning lady paid 40%. The system is tilted towards the rich. The Forbes 400 total net worth has gone from 220 billion to 1.54 trillion, an increase of 7-to-1. You see in legislature that there is lobbying carried on by the powerful over issues such as the estate tax and carried interest for private equity investments. We need to flatten income and payroll taxes, and those making under $30,000 shouldn’t be bothered.

    It is hard to beat reading Warren Buffet’s ideas on investing and economics.

    Related: Buffett on Taxes – The Berkshire Hathaway Meeting 2007 – Buffett’s 2006 Letter to Shareholders – Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report – books on investing

  • Americans are Drowning in Debt

    The story is a bit boring. People spend money they don’t have. But it is hard to ignore the story when it is so important. And so many people are foolishly ruining their financial future. When credit cards put you in jeopardy

    Consumers have racked up more than $2.2 trillion in purchases and cash advances on major credit cards in just the last year. And it’s become a habit for them to spend more than they have. The overall credit card debt grew by 315 percent from 1989 to 2006, according to public policy research firm Demos. To compound the problem, fewer people are paying their credit cards bills on time.

    Please stop. Don’t spend money you don’t have. Don’t think those political “leaders” that practice the same spending money they don’t have financial management are worthy of respect and don’t follow the bad example they continue to set.

    The article gives some tips. I would suggest the tips for using your credit cards I have blogged about earlier. But the main thing is really simple: don’t use your credit card for loans – pay off your full balance every month. Save money for things you want. When you have the money saved, then buy them. This is not rocket science it is pretty darn easy. Don’t spend what you don’t have.

    Related: Too Much Stuff – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap – Poor Customer Service from Discover Card – Trying to Keep up with the Jones – Raising Taxes on Future Generations

  • Sneaky Fees

    The use of sneaky fees by service companies is growing

    It’s a phenomenon that Bob Sullivan, who runs the consumer blog “Red Tape Chronicles” for MSNBC, calls “Gotcha Capitalism” – the title of his recent book, which catalogues the growing use of sneaky fees by service companies from banks to hotels to airlines:

    In early February, United Airlines began to charge customers $25 for an extra bag. Some rental car companies charge an airport concession fee if the lot is conveniently located near the airport. A hotel in Las Vegas now bills customers for any item they take out of the minibar for more than 60 seconds, even if it is not consumed. Some bank gift cards lose part of their value if not used by a certain date.
    …
    banks collect up to a 3 percent processing fee for third-party credit transactions. Most of that 3 percent is called the “interchange fee.” That fee has outraged merchants in continental Europe, where credit card use is sparse and consumers are accustomed to debit cards. In December the European Commission won a case against Mastercard that requires it to eliminate interchange fees within the next six months.

    As I have mentioned before the problems of bad practices by financial companies and the unfortunate truth that they force you to be on guard against them tricking you and taking your money. The Curious Cat credit card tips page provides advice on how not to get tricked by credit card companies into paying big fees along with some other tips.

    It a shame financial companies don’t seem to believe in providing an honest service and making a profit as part of provide good value. Instead you have to watch them with the belief they will take you money if they can trick you (through hidden fees, misleading ads…). And it is sad other companies are expanding such anti-customer methods to other markets.

    Related: Credit Card Currency Conversion Costs – Bad Practice: .05% Interest – Customer Hostility from Discover Card – Challenge Those Credit Fees

  • Starting Retirement Account Allocations for Someone Under 40

    One of the most important financial moves you can make is to start investing for your retirement early. This post is directed at those in the USA (but you can adjust the ideas for your particular situation). Retirement accounts with tax free growth, tax deferred growth and/or even tax deductible contributions can add to the benefits of such an investment. And matching by your company can give you an immediate return or 100% or 50% or some other amount. With 100% matching if you invest $2,000 your company adds $2,000 to your retirement account. For 50% they would add $1,000 in the event you added $2,000.

    In other posts I will cover some of the other details involved but some people can be confused just by what investment options to chose. Normally you will have a limited choice of mutual funds. Hopefully you will have a good family of funds to choose from such as Vanguard, TIAA-CREF, American, Franklin-Templeton, T.Rowe Price etc.). If so, the most important thing is really just to get started adding money. The details of how you allocate the investment is secondary to that.

    So once you have made the decision to save for your retirement what allocation makes sense? Well diversification is a valuable strategy. Some options you will likely have include S&P 500 index fund, Russel 5000 (total market index – or some such), small cap growth, international stocks, money market fund, bond fund and perhaps international bonds, short term bonds, specialty funds (health care, natural resources) long term bonds, real estate trusts…

    Just to get a simple idea of what might make sense when you are starting out and under 40 and don’t have other substantial assets in any of these areas (large mutual fund holdings, your own house, investment real estate…) this is an allocation I think is reasonable (but don’t take my word for it go read what other say and then make your own decisions):

    25% Total stock market index (~Wilshire 5000)
    25% international stocks
    20% small cap stocks
    10% real estate
    10% high quality short term bonds in a Euros, Yen…
    10% short term bonds (or money market)
    (more…)

  • You Don’t Need an Extended Warranty

    Why you don’t need an extended warranty, Consumer Reports:

    Retailers are pushing hard to get you to buy extended warranties, or service plans, because they’re cash cows. Stores keep 50 percent or more of what they charge for warranties. That’s much more than they can make selling actual products. For the consumer, extended warranties are notoriously bad deals because:

    – Some repairs are covered by the standard manufacturer warranty that comes with the product
    – Products seldom break within the extended-warranty window–after the standard warranty has expired but within the typical two to three years of purchase–our data show.
    – When electronics and appliances do break, the repairs, on average, cost about the same as an extended warranty.

    Related: Save Money on AV Cables – Shop Around for Drugs – Real Free Credit Report

  • Discount NYC Hotels

    NYC hotels at a price that’s right

    New York City hotels charge nearly $300 a night on average. But with some persistence, it’s possible to book a far more affordable place that’s central, comfortable, and — sometimes — even charming. Be sure to plan well in advance.

    Chelsea Lodge from $119, Pod Hotel from $89, Abingdon Guest House from $179.
    New York City Hotels and Hostels – Curious Cat lodging connections – Curious Cat NYC photos

  • Municipal Bonds – After Tax Return

    In the USA Municipal bonds are issued by state and local governments and are exempt from federal tax. Therefor if you earn a 5% yield your after tax return is equal to that of a 7.5% yield if you are in the 33% federal tax bracket (7% * .67 = 5%). One way to invest in bonds is using a mutual fund (open or closed end funds). Right now the tax equivalent yields (compared to other bonds) of muni bonds are higher than normal.

    Muni Bond Funds Offer High Yields, Tax Perks Dec, 2007:

    take a look at closed-end mutual funds that invest in high-quality municipal bonds. It’s easy to find a solid national muni fund that pays a yield of between 5.5% and 6%, with no federal taxes at all. It depends on your tax rate, but that’s the equivalent of a taxable fund that pays 7.5% to 8%.
    …
    With so many defaults going on in the mortgage arena, investors are worried that the insurers won’t be there to back up any munis that might get into trouble. A fair point, but the bond insurers are bolstering their own capital structures to deal with these concerns, and historically, as I said before, defaults in munis are few and far between.

    Why are closed-end muni funds trading at a discount? Typical discounts today are about 10%, which is about as deep as such discounts have ever gotten on a historical basis. The typical discount is half that, or less. Closed-end muni funds sometimes even trade at a premium.

    One explanation for the big discount might be the fact that many closed-end muni funds use leverage, in order to increase the tax-exempt returns they can offer investors. In the current credit crisis, leverage is seen as an inherently dangerous thing.

    In general I find bonds to be a less desirable investment. Especially in the low yield environment recently (and really going back quite a few years). But for diversification some bonds can make sense for certain portfolios. Given the current tradeoffs (risk v. after tax yield) muni bonds certainly deserve consideration. I would shy away from long term bonds or funds (intermediate or short term) but of course every investor makes their own decisions.

    Related: Roth IRA (another good tax smart investing tool) – what are bonds? – Alternative Minimum Tax

  • Bad Practice: .05% Interest From a Stock Broker

    Unfortunately it is not uncommon to find companies that choose to line their pockets at the expense of customers. I wish we could find companies that want to provide good value and make some profit by doing so. My stock broker used to allow clients idle cash to be invested and earn a reasonably decent rate (not Vanguard money market fund but you know for a company that doesn’t want to provide the best customer value a least something remotely approaching fair). This year (or last year) they stopped doing so and switched to the following rate structure:

    Dollar Range Interest Rate Annual Percentage Yield
    $0.01-$4,999 0.04999% 0.05%
    $5,000-$24,999 0.04999% 0.05%
    $25,000-$99,999 0.29959% 0.30%

    You might think they make an error and mean 5% and just put the decimal in the wrong place but you would be wrong. It used to be leaving your money in money market accounts with the broker wasn’t great but the 50+ basis point hit was worth the convenience. Now HSBC pays 4.25% for online savings. So at 100 times what the broker pays they would be slightly higher than HSBC. Sorry paying 1/85 of what HSBC pays is not just talking a bit of your clients money for yourself. That is obscene. You can no longer trust that your stock broker will only talk 50+ basis points of you money market earnings. Take a look at your account and setup an account with HSBC, Vanguard (current yield 4.64%) or something similar that pays a reasonable rate for any short term savings.

    If your broker pays less than 2% on a money market account of $5,000 that is a scary sign. What else they might be doing that isn’t so obviously unfair is difficult to know. Getting above 4% for a cash saving account now is pretty good, in my opinion.

    Related: Customer Hostility from Discover Card – Frugality Versus Better Returns – Learning About Personal Loans

  • $8,000 Per Gallon

    $8,000-per-gallon printer ink leads to antitrust lawsuit

    For most printer companies, ink is the bread and butter of their business. The price of ink for HP ink-jet printers can be as much as $8,000 per gallon, a figure that makes gas-pump price gouging look tame. HP is currently the dominant company in the printing market, and a considerable portion of the company’s profits come from ink.

    The printer makers have been waging an all-out war against third-party vendors that sell replacement cartridges at a fraction of the price. The tactics employed by the printer makers to maintain monopoly control over ink distribution for their printing products have become increasingly aggressive. In the past, we have seen HP, Epson, Lenovo and other companies attempt to use patents and even the Digital Millennium Copyright Act in their efforts to crush third-party ink distributors.

    The companies have also turned to using the ink equivalent of DRM, the use of microchips embedded in ink cartridges that work with a corresponding technical mechanism in the printer that blocks the use of unauthorized third-party ink.

    Tip – by a printer from a company that doesn’t rip you off as much for ink: The Kodak 5300 All-in-One Printer, which uses ultra low-priced ink to help you save up to 50 percent. Kodak has made the strategic decision to compete with the entrenched printing companies by not ripping off customers as much.

    Related: Kodak Debuts Printers With Inexpensive Cartridges – Price Discrimination in the Internet Age – Zero Ink Printing – Open Source 3-D Printing