Investing Curiouscatblog

Blog

  • How to Balance the Benefits of Foreign Workers and the Potential Damage to Citizen’s Job Prospects

    There have been quite a few complaints about companies hiring foreign nationals to work in the USA to save money (and costing citizens jobs or reducing their pay). The way the laws are now, companies are only suppose to hire people to work in the USA that can’t be met with USA workers. The whole process is filled with unclear borders however – it is a grey world, not black and white.

    I think one of the things I would do is to make it cost more to hire foreigners. Just slap on a tax of something like $10,000 per year for a visa. If what I decided was actually going to adopted I would need to do a lot more study, but I think something like that would help (maybe weight it by median pay – multiple that by 2, or something, for software developers…).

    It is a complex issue. In general I think reducing barriers to economic competition is good. But I do agree some make sense in the context we have. Given the way things are it may well make sense to take measures that maybe could be avoided with a completely overhauled economic and political system.

    I believe there are many good things to having highly skilled workers in your country. So if the problem was in recruiting them (which isn’t a problem in the USA right now) then a tax on the each visa wouldn’t be wise, but I think it might make sense now for the USA.

    I think overall the USA benefits tremendously from all the workers attracted from elsewhere. We are much better off leaving things as they are than overreacting the other way (and being too restrictive) – but I do believe it could be tweaked in ways that could help.

    Outsourcing Made by India Seen Hit by Immigration Law

    In June the U.S. Senate passed an immigration bill that allows more H-1Bs while also increasing their cost and barring some companies from placing holders of the visa with customers.
    …
    Indians received more than half the 106,445 first-time H-1Bs issued in the year ending September 2011, according to a U.S. Department of Homeland Security report. The second-biggest recipient was China with 9.5 percent.
    …
    While the legislation raises the annual H-1B cap to as much as 180,000 from 65,000, it increases visa costs five-fold for some companies to $10,000. It also bans larger employers with 15 percent or more of their U.S. workforce on such permits from sending H-1B staff to client’s sites.

    The aim is to balance the U.S. economy’s need to fill genuine skills gaps with protection for U.S. citizens from businesses that may use the guest-worker program to bring in cheaper labor

    Related: Relocating to Another Country – Working as a Software Developer – Science PhD Job Market in 2012 – Career Prospect for Engineers Continues to Look Positive

  • A Risk You Probably Don’t Consider: Solar Storms

    The extremely large investment risks due to global climate change are in the minds of sensible investors. One risk people often fail to consider is the damage that can be done to our electronics and our electrical system (large scale distribution) by solar storms.

    When space weather attacks!

    Today, electric utilities and the insurance industry are grappling with a scary possibility. A solar storm on the scale of that in 1859 would wreak havoc on power grids, pipelines and satellites. In the worst case, it could leave 20 million to 40 million people in the Northeast [USA] without power — possibly for years — as utilities struggled to replace thousands of fried transformers stretching from Washington to Boston. Chaos and riots might ensue.

    That’s not a lurid sci-fi fantasy. It’s a sober new assessment by Lloyd’s of London, the world’s oldest insurance market. The report notes that even a much smaller solar-induced geomagnetic storm in 1989 left 6 million people in Quebec without power for nine hours.

    “We’re much more dependent on electricity now than we were in 1859,” explains Neil Smith, an emerging-risks researcher at Lloyd’s and co-author of the report. “The same event today could have a huge financial impact” — which the insurer pegs at up to $2.6 trillion for an especially severe storm. (To put that in context, Hurricane Sandy caused about $68 billion in damage.)
    …
    A truly severe geomagnetic storm could create currents powerful enough to overload electric grids and damage a significant number of high-voltage transformers, which can take a long time to repair or replace. That could leave millions without power for months or years.
    …
    there are technologies that could harden the grid, such as capacitors that can help block the flow of ground currents induced by a geomagnetic event. In Quebec, the Canadian government has spent about $1.2 billion on these technologies since the 1989 blackout.

    Likely in the event of extremely large solar storms that knock out a significant number of large transformers would provide business to companies that manufacture replacements and companies that offer protection (once insurers raise insurance rates for unprotected equipment the economics will quickly justify the expenses).

    I am still looking for investment ideas that stand to benefit from global climate change. We seem pretty determined not to take actions to reduce the risks so reducing the impacts seems unlikely. Mostly this will cause great damage to our standards of living (and even endangering many lives). But even so I image there will be some investments that should benefit.

    Even if say global climate changes reduce global economic well being by 10% I don’t think it will be 10% evenly distributed. Some places/businesses.. will go down 20%, some 12% some 3% and I would think there is also the chance some will actually increase. But I have not been successful in thinking of investments that will benefit due to global climate change (and our refusal to take sensible steps to reduce the damage). If you have ideas add a comment.

    I wish we would take significant action to reduce the damage global climate change will cause. But since we are not, and the damage will be huge, reducing what I can expect from average investment returns, seeking investments to help balance those losses is a wise step to take.

    Related: Investment Risk Matters Most as Part of a Portfolio, Rather than in Isolation – Disability Insurance is Very Important – Unless We Take Decisive Action, Climate Change Will Ravage Our Planet – Solar Cycle Prediction – Don’t Expect to Spend Over 4% of Your Retirement Investment Assets Annually

  • The Risks of Too Big to Fail Financial Institutions Have Only Gotten Worse

    Printing money (and the newer fancier ways to introduce liquidity/capital) work until people realize the money is worthless. Then you have massive stagflation that is nearly impossible to get out from under. The decision by the European and USA government to bail out the too big to fail institutions and do nothing substantial to address the problem leaves an enormous risk to the global economy unaddressed and hanging directly over our heads ready to fall at any time.

    The massively too big to fail financial institutions that exist on massive leverage and massive government assistance are a new (last 15? years) danger make it more likely the currency losses value rapidly as the government uses its treasury to bail out their financial friends (this isn’t like normal payback of a few million or billion dollars these could easily cost countries like the USA trillions). How to evaluate this risk and create a portfolio to cope with the risks existing today is extremely challenging – I am not sure what the answer is.

    Of the big currencies, when I evaluate the USA $ on its own I think it is a piece of junk and wouldn’t wan’t my financial future resting on it. When I look at the other large currencies (Yen, Yuan, Euro) I am not sure but I think the USD (and USA economy) may be the least bad.

    In many ways I think some smaller countries are sounder but smaller countries can very quickly change – go from sitting pretty to very ugly financial situations. How they will wether a financial crisis where one of the big currencies losses trust (much much more than we have seen yet) I don’t know. Still I would ideally place a bit of my financial future scattered among various of these countries (Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Brazil [maybe]…).

    Basically I don’t know where to find safety. I think large multinational companies that have extremely strong balance sheets and businesses that seem like they could survive financial chaos (a difficult judgement to make) may well make sense (Apple, Google, Amazon, Toyota, Intel{a bit of a stretch}, Berkshire Hathaway… companies with lots of cash, little debt, low fixed costs, good profit margins that should continue [even if sales go down and they make less they should make money – which many others won’t]). Some utilities would also probably work – even though they have large fixed costs normally. Basically companies that can survive very bad economic times – they might not get rich during them but shouldn’t really have any trouble surviving (they have much better balance sheets and prospects than many governments balance sheets it seems to me).

    In many ways real estate in prime areas is good for this “type” of risk (currency devaluation and financial chaos) but the end game might be so chaotic it messes that up. Still I think prime real estate assets are a decent bet to whether the crisis better than other things. And if there isn’t any crisis should do well (so that is a nice bonus).

    Basically I think the risks are real and potential damage is serious. Where to hide from the storm is a much tricker question to answer. When in that situation diversification is often wise. So diversification with a focus on investments that can survive very bad economic times for years is what I believe is wise.

    Related: Investing in Stocks That Have Raised Dividends Consistently – Adding More Banker and Politician Bailouts in Not the Answer –
    Failures in Regulating Financial Markets Leads to Predictable Consequences – Charlie Munger’s Thoughts on the Credit Crisis and Risk – The Misuse of Statistics and Mania in Financial Markets

  • Investment Options Are Much Less Comforting Than Normal These Days

    I think the current investing climate worldwide continues to be very uncertain. Historically I believe in the long term success of investing in successful businesses and real estate in economically vibrant areas. I think you can do fairly well investing in various sold long term businesses or mutual funds looking at things like dividend aristocrates or even the S&P 500. And investing in real estate in most areas, over the long term, is usually fine.

    When markets hit extremes it is better to get out, but it is very hard to know in advance when that is. So just staying pretty much fully invested (which to me includes a safety margin of cash and very safe investments as part of a portfolio).

    I really don’t know of a time more disconcerting than the last 5 years (other than during the great depression, World War II and right after World War II). Looking back it is easy to take the long term view and say post World War II was a great time for long term investors. I doubt it was so easy then (especially outside the USA).

    Even at times like the oil crisis (1973-74…, stagflation…, 1986 stock market crash) I can see being confident just investing in good businesses and good real estate would work out in the long term. I am much less certain now.

    I really don’t see a decent option to investing in good companies and real estate (I never really like bonds, though I understand they can have a role in a portfolio, and certainly don’t know). Normally I am perfectly comfortable with the long term soundness of such a plan and realizing there would be plenty of volatility along the way. The last few years I am much less comfortable and much more nervous (but I don’t see many decent options that don’t make me nervous).

    One of the many huge worries today is the extreme financial instruments; complex securities; complex and highly leveraged financial institution (that are also too big to fail); high leverage by companies (though many many companies are one of the more sound parts of the economy – Apple, Google, Toyota, Intel…), high debt for governments, high debt for consumers, inability for regulators to understand the risks they allow too big to fail institutions to take, the disregard for risking economic calamity by those in too big to fail institutions, climate change (huge insurance risks and many other problems), decades of health care crisis in the USA…

    A recent Bloomberg article examines differing analyst opinions on the Chinese banking system. It is just one of many things I find worrying. I am not certain the current state of Chinese banking is extremely dangerous to global economic investments but I am worried it may well be.

    China Credit-Bubble Call Pits Fitch’s Chu Against S&P

    (more…)

  • Solar Direct Investing Bonds

    Mosaic offers a new investment option to easily invest in solar energy projects. Mosaic connects investors seeking steady, reliable returns to high quality solar projects. To date, over $2.1 million has been invested through Mosaic and investors have received 100% on-time repayments.

    The site provides full prospectives on each project. The yields have been between 4.5% and 5% for 8 to 10 year projects. The funds pay for solar installation and then the locations that take the loans pay them back with the saving on their electricity bill (sometimes selling power to the utility based on the organizations electricity needs and amount generated at any specific time).

    The bonds have risks, of course. And I am pretty sure they are very illiquid. But for those looking for some decent yield alternatives they may offer a good choice. They also provide the benefit of supporting green energy

    The current bond being offered, 657 kW on Pinnacle Charter School in Federal Heights, Colorado offers a yield of 5.4%. The public offerings have only been available for a few months and they have sold out quickly so far.

    Mosaic has done a good job creating a simple process to invest online. You create your account and if you chose to invest and are allocated a portion of an offering it is funded from your bank account. You can invest as little as $25.

    Related: Looking for Yields in Stocks and Real Estate – Taking a Look at Some Dividend Aristocrats – Pay as You Go Solar in India – posts on solar energy on Curious Cat Science and Engineering blog

  • Eurozone Unemployment at 12.2% and for Those Under 25 is 24.4%

    Eurozone unemployment hits new high with quarter of under-25s jobless

    The problem was most extreme in Greece where almost two-thirds of those under-25 are unemployed. The rate was 62.5% in February, the most recently available data.
    …
    Youth unemployment in Spain is 56.4%, in Portugal 42.5%. Italy recorded its highest overall unemployment rate since records began in 1977, at 12%, with youth joblessness at 40.5%. Economists said that the rise in unemployment was fairly broad-based with rises in so-called core countries as well, including Belgium and the Netherlands. The rate in France was 11%.
    …
    Ireland recorded one of the biggest falls in unemployment, down to 13.5% from 14.9% a year ago. That compares with a rate of 7.7% for the UK, where youth unemployment is 20.2%. The lowest rates for youth unemployment were in Germany at 7.5% and Austria at 8%.

    Unemployment continues to be a huge problem. The slow recovery from the great recession caused by the too big to fail financial institutions continues to do great damage. That damage is very visible in unemployment figures and the huge transfer of wealth from savers to bail out otherwise failed financial institutions (that not only haven’t been made to be small enough to fail but continue to pay themseves enormous bonuses while taking the billions in transfer of wealth from retirees that have had their income sliced by the interest rate policies necessatated to bail out the bankers).

    The USA employment situation is still bad but has actually could easily be much worse. Unemployment in the USA stands at 7.5% now (the rate for teenagers is 24.1%).

    Related: 157,000 Jobs Added in January and Adjustments for the Prior Two Months add 127,000 More (Feb 2013) – USA Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%, 200,000 Jobs Added (Oct 2012) – USA Adds 216,00 Jobs in March and the Unemployment Rate Stands at 8.8% (March 2011)

  • Career Flexibility

    I think we could use some innovation in our model of a career. I have thought retirement being largely binary was lame since I figured out that is mainly how it worked. You work 40 hours a week (1,800 – 2,000 hours a year) and then dropped to 0 hours, all year long, from them on.

    It seems to me more gradual retirement makes a huge amount of sense (for society, individuals and our economy). That model is available to people, for example those that can work as consultants (and some others) but we would benefit from more options.

    Why do we have to start work at 22 (or 18 or 26 or whenever) and then work 40 or so straight years and then retire? Why not gap years (or sabbaticals)? Also why can’t we just go part time if we want.

    The broken health care system in the USA really causes problems with options (being so tightly tied to full time work). But I have convinced employers to let me go part-time (while working in orgs that essentially have 0 part time workers). And I am now basically on gap year(s)/sabbatical now. It can be done, but it certainly isn’t encouraged. You have to go against the flow and if you worry about being a conventional hire you may be nervous.

    Related: Working Less: Better Lives and Less Unemployment – Why don’t we take five years out of retirement and spread them throughout your working life? – Retiring Overseas is an Appealing Option for Some Retirees – Living in Malaysia as an Expat – 67 Is The New 55

  • 12 Stocks for 10 Years – May 2013 Update

    The 12 stock for 10 years portfolio consists of stocks I would be comfortable putting into an IRA for 10 years. The main criteria is for companies with a history of large positive cash flow, that seemed likely to continue that trend.

    Since April of 2005 the portfolio Marketocracy* calculated annualized rate or return (which excludes Tesco) is 7.5% (the S&P 500 annualized return for the period is 6.8%).

    Marketocracy subtracts the equivalent of 2% of assets annually to simulate management fees – as though the portfolio were a mutual fund – so without that (it is not like this portfolio takes much management), the return beats the S&P 500 annual return by about 270 basis points annually (9.5% to 6.8%). And I think the 270 basis point “beat” of the S&P rate is really under-counting as the 200 basis point “deduction” removes what would be assets that would be increasing (so the gains that would have been made on the non-existing deductions in the real world – are missing). Tesco reduces the return, still I believe the rate would stay close to a 200 basis point advantage.

    I make some adjustments (selling of buying a bit of the stocks depending on large price movements – this rebalances and also lets me sell a bit if I think things are getting highly priced and buy a bit if they are getting to be a better bargin). So I have sold some Amazon and Google as they have increased greatly and bought some Toyota as it declined (and now sold a bit of Toyota as it soared). This purchases and sales are fairly small. Those plus changes (selling Dell and buying Apple for example) have resulted in a annual turnover rate under 5%.

    I am strongly considering buying ABBV and maybe ABT. Abbot recently split into these 2 separate companies. I probably would have added this last year but I wasn’t sure what to do given the breakup so I waited (luckily I bought it, personally, as they have performed quite well) I may also sell some or all of Tesco and PetroChina.

    The current stocks, in order of return:

    Stock Current Return % of sleep well portfolio now % of the portfolio if I were buying today
    Amazon – AMZN 486% 8% 8%
    Google – GOOG 311% 17% 15%
    PetroChina – PTR 104% 6% 6%
    Templeton Dragon Fund – TDF 89% 4% 4%
    Danaher – DHR 78% 9% 9%
    Toyota – TM 70% 13% 11%
    Templeton Emerging Market Fund – EMF 50% 6% 8%
    Apple – AAPL 22% 12% 15%
    Pfizer – PFE 20% 7% 7%
    Cisco – CSCO 19% 4% 5%
    Intel – INTC 9% 7% 7%
    Cash – 7%* 4%
    Tesco – TSCDY -5%** 0%* 4%

    The current marketocracy results can be seen on the Sleep Well marketocracy portfolio page.

    Related: 12 Stocks for 10 Years: Oct 2012 Update – 12 Stocks for 10 Years, July 2011 Update – 12 Stocks for 10 Years, July 2009 Update – hand selected articles on investing

    (more…)

  • Real Estate Tax Compared to Rental Income in Several Cities in the USA

    I was just taking a look at a couple of properties in Zillow and found it interesting how big the real estate tax bite can be. I have 2 rental properties and the real estate tax cost is 15% and 12% of the rental income. At least for my area Zillow underestimate rent rates (the vacancy rate is very low and properties in general rent within days or weeks – at rates 10%+ higher than Zillow estimates on average -based on my very limited sample of just what I happen to notice).

    I thought I would look at the real estate tax to property value estimate and rent estimate by Zillow in Various locations.

    Arlington, Virginia – real estate taxes were 1% of estimated property value and 17.5% of rental estimate.
    Chapel Hill, North Carolina – 1.5% of value and 41% of rental estimate.
    Madison, Wisconsin – 2.4% of value and 39% of rental estimate.
    Flagstaff, Arizona – .7% of value and 9.5% of rental estimate.
    Grand Junction, Colorado – .4% of value and 6% of rental estimate.

    This is just an anecdotal look, I didn’t try to get a basket of homes in each market I just looked at about 1-5 homes so there is plenty of room for misleading information. But this is just a quick look and was interesting to me so I thought I would share it. While the taxes are deductible (from the profit of the rental property) they are a fixed expense, whether the house is rented or not that expense must be paid.

    A high tax rate to rental rate is a cash flow risk – you have to make that payment no matter what.

    In my opinion one of the most important aspects of rental property is keeping the units rented. The vacancy rate for similar properties is an extremely important piece of data. Arlington, Virginia has an extremely low vacancy rate. I am not sure about the other locations.

    I wanted to use Park Slope, Brooklyn, NYC but the data was confusing/limited… so I skipped it; the taxes seemed super low.

    Related: USA Housing Rents Increased 5.4% in the Last Year (Sep 2012) – USA Apartment Market in 2011 – Top Markets in the USA for Buying Rental Property (2011) –
    Home Values and Rental Rates

  • Apple’s Outstanding Shares Increased a Great Deal the Last Few Years

    One of the frustrating things for shareholders is how readily companies give away stock. A huge company like Apple has been giving away huge amounts of stock (through stock options) even while adding tens of billions in cash to their stockpile.

    Outstanding stock for Apple

    Jan 2006 – 848 million shares
    Jan 2007 – 862 million shares
    Jan 2008 – 879 million shares
    Jan 2009 – 891 million shares
    Jan 2010 – 907 million shares
    Jan 2011 – 921 million shares
    Jan 2012 – 932 million shares
    Jan 2013 – 939 million shares

    So even in the last year, while promoting a $10 billion buyback – the net result was 7 million more shares (not fewer as a “buyback” suggests); it did reduce the amount of increase to less than it has been recently. 7 million more shares * $425 = $2.975 billion more stock in place. If Apple uses $50 billion more to buy back stock that would allow purchase of 100 million shares at $500 a share ($500 is less than I would guess the average price will be, but we will see what actually happens). That would get the share balance back to the Jan 2006 level, if there were not huge new additions during the buyback period (which there probably will be).

    Companies certainly like to heavily publicize share buyback programs. They don’t trumpet how much additional stock they issue each year with the same zeal (most of which, for successful companies not in desperate need for cash, is provided through extremely sweetheart stock options for executives and board members at the expense of diluting stockholder’s equity – the easiest form of excessive executive pay to give away as it doesn’t cost the company cash).

    It will be interesting to see to what extent share buybacks actually decrease the share balance and to what extent they just eliminate the exploding issuance of shares Apple has engaged in while piling up the largest cash reserves ever recorded.

    Given Apple’s financial position I do not believe diluting stockholders equity by issuing huge amounts of stock was a wise policy the last 7 years. I think reversing that policy is wise. Buying back the stock they gave away is sensible but it would have been wiser not to give so much away in the first place. I’ll be surprised, and happy, if the outstanding share balance drops below 890 million (the Jan 2009 figure).

    I do think Apple is a great buy at these levels (I bought some more last week). The earnings reported today are not as spectacular as those reported recently but they still made a profit of $9.5 billion in the quarter (and had positive cash flow of $12.5 billion bringing total cash on hand to $145 billion). It isn’t like this is a company that is failing. It is just a company that isn’t growing earnings as rapidly. They are still earning enormous amounts of cash.

    The decline in margins is disappointing (but not surprising) but the margins are still great (just not as amazingly great as recently). The worry over further declines in margins seems justified to me and is one of the big risks for the stock going forward. I think margins will remains at a level that justifies a much higher price than the stock has today, but only time will tell.

    I would have liked to see the dividend increase more, but a dividend increase was a good move.

    Related: Is it Time to Sell Apple? – Apple’s Impossibly Good Quarter (Jan 2012) – Google to Let Workers Sell Options Online