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  • Too Big to Fail

    re: New Rule: If your company is to big to fail, your company is too big to exist. The next Prez. needs to split up huge companies like we did with AT&T.

    Exactly right. Companies too big to fail have massive negative externalities that should be managed through regulation. And the discussion (see link) of this claiming that the huge, anti-capitalist, companies that exist now are not monopolies and therefore anti-trust laws should not be used makes no sense. Anti-trust laws are not for monopolies. Trusts were huge anti-competitive organizations that sought to eliminate the free market and extract benefits by distorting the market. Those laws were adopted not to regulate monopolies but to regulate anti-competitive behavior.

    The free market theory formulated by Adam Smith et.al. was based on perfect competition where no one entity could influence the market. In reality that is not possible but approximations of it can exist (we are far from such a state today, however). Fine, the anti-capitalist large corporations are not monopolies – they are oligopolistic that can still extract profits through their ability to distort the free market. Is the fact they are not a monopoly really that relevant?

    Enforcing rules that prevent businesses from using their size and power to extract outsized profits is the right thing to do. Anti-trust laws are the proper tool. when politicians are paid lots of money by people with the gold to allow them to cripple the free market and create large corporations that profit, not by competing in a free market, but by manipulating the market that is a bad practice. It won’t change until people stop electing politicians that reward those that pay them for favors. And that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

    What we can hope is that there is some limit on how egregious the favors politicians grant those paying them money are. Maybe this latest escapade (and the costs of those favors to bankers) will cause a reduction in the favors granted. I don’t have high expectations for the changes though.
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  • Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007

    The updated data from the United Nations on manufacturing output by country clearly shows the USA remains by far the largest manufacturer in the world. UN Data, in billions of current US dollars:

    Country 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
    USA 1,041 1,289 1,543 1,663 1,700 1,831
    China 143 299 484 734 891 1,106
    Japan 804 1,209 1.034 954 934 926
    Germany 438 517 392 566 595 670
    Russian Federation 211 104 73 222 281 362
    Italy 240 226 206 289 299 345
    United Kingdom 207 219 228 269 303 342
    France 224 259 190 249 248 296
    Korea 65 129 134 200 220 241
    Canada 92 100 129 177 195 218
    Spain 101 103 98 164 176 208
    Brazil 120 125 96 137 170 206
    Additional countries of interest – not the next largest
    India 50 59 67 118 135 167
    Mexico 50 55 107 122 136 144
    Indonesia 29 60 46 80 102 121
    Turkey 33 38 38 75 85 101

    The USA’s share of the manufacturing output of the countries that manufactured over $200 billion in 2007 (the 12 countries on the top of the chart above) in 1990 was 28%, 1995 28%, 2000 33%, 2005 30%, 2006 28%, 2007 27%. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990, 1995 7%, 2000 11%, 2005 13%, 2006 15%, 2007 16%.

    Total manufacturing output in the USA was up 76% in 2007 from the 1990 level. Japan, the second largest manufacturer in 1990, and third today, has increased output 15% (the lowest of the top 12, France is next lowest at 32%) while China is up an amazing 673% (Korea is next at an increase of 271%).
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  • 3 Month Treasury Bill Yield Reached .03%

    On Wednesday of last week the United States 3 month treasury bill yield reached .03%, yet another remarkable chart from the current crisis.

    chart of 3 month treasury bill yield

    via: No one wants to hold risk … – “I guess this is what a close to systemic financial crisis in the US looks like”

    Daily Treasury Yield Rates show that the rate for Friday the 12th of September 1.49%, Monday the 15th 1.02%, Tuesday .84%, Wednesday .03%, Thursday .23% and Friday .99%.

    Related: Corporate and Government Bond Yields – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Search – Credit Crisis Continues (April 2008)

  • SEC Temporarily Bans Short-selling Financial Stocks

    SEC to temporarily ban short-selling: report

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission intends to temporarily ban short-selling, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday night. It’s unclear if the commission has approved the move, the Journal reported. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were briefing congressional leaders Thursday night. The U.S. move would follow a similar action by U.K. regulators on Thursday.

    Wow, that would be very surprising to me (especially if you asked more than a month ago the chances of this happening). But given these crazy times I can believe it. I wish they just properly regulated short selling the last 10 years (the failure to do so has been very disappointing). And I would be against banning short selling unless there were a very extreme situation. I don’t see that are necessary now, but I have far from all the details so maybe it is warranted now (though I am skeptical).

    Update: SEC Halts Short Selling of Financial Stocks

    Under normal market conditions, short selling contributes to price efficiency and adds liquidity to the markets. At present, it appears that unbridled short selling is contributing to the recent, sudden price declines in the securities of financial institutions unrelated to true price valuation. Financial institutions are particularly vulnerable to this crisis of confidence and panic selling because they depend on the confidence of their trading counterparties in the conduct of their core business.

    Given the importance of confidence in financial markets, the SEC’s action halts short selling in 799 financial institutions.

    Related: Naked Short Selling – Shorting Using Inverse Funds – Investor Protection Needed

  • Stock Market Decline

    Watching your new worth decline isn’t fun. But when investing over the long term you will have some good periods and some bad periods. Diversification can help smooth out the extremes but the markets are often driven by emotion. And those emotions (greed, fear…) cause extreme price swings. I am getting ready to invest more in the market. I don’t know how much further we will go down, or if we are at the bottom now (unlikely). But there are investments I am happy to own at these prices. The main reason I don’t buy more is the limitation of my capital. And I would rather buy in slowly so if prices decline I can get more for my money.

    Not surprisingly the stocks I am looking at are those in the 12 stocks for 10 years portfolio. I am looking at buying more Templeton Dragon Fund, Toyota and Google for myself now. I am happy to be able to buy more of these stocks for the long term. It is not fun to see my net asset value decrease but that does provide some opportunities for buying stocks at lower prices. They may turn out to be bargains, or maybe they will drop much further. That only time will tell, but I am happy to add to those positions at these prices.

    On the overall market I am waiting and watching. But I am leaning now toward moving more of my long term investing into stocks – I am already over-weighted there compared to the conventional wisdom but that is my style. I am willing to take more risk with a long long term investment portfolio. As the time frame shrinks (and the assets grow) I believe in reducing the risk profile for the overall portfolio (though I still believe conventional wisdom over-emphasizes price volatility risk (compared to inflation risk, for example). This market does have real potential for creating serious long term problems, which is why I need to think more (and get more information) about the long term implications.

    Related: Investment Risks – books on investing – Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You? – Uncertain Economic Times

  • Fed to Loan AIG $85 Billion in Rescue

    Fed to Loan A.I.G. $85 Billion in Rescue

    Fearing a financial crisis worldwide, the Federal Reserve reversed course on Tuesday and agreed to an $85 billion bailout that would give the government control of the troubled insurance giant American International Group.

    The decision, only two weeks after the Treasury took over the federally chartered mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is the most radical intervention in private business in the central bank’s history.

    This whole meltdown of the companies that exemplified the mantra that government regulation is bad (when they would like to make money by avoiding regulation) that now come begging for government bailouts because of the risk to the economy of failing to provide bailouts sure is disheartening. You might even think real changes will be made. I am sure changes will be made for awhile and then people will forget and special interests will pay politicians to get special favors and we will find ourselves in a different but similar mess a few decades from now.

    Related: Fed Continues Wall Street Welfare – 2nd Largest Bank Failure in USA History – Estate Tax Repeal

  • Allocations Make A Big Difference

    Why Allocations Make A Big Difference

    the closer you get to the time when you want to cash in your investments, the safer you want to get with those investments. Traditionally, stocks are very volatile (ranging from -15% to 20% annual return), while bonds are pretty stable (returning 4-8% consistently).

    Good advice, but I believe people need to be much more careful with bonds than many people believe. Long term bonds can be volatile (both due to interest rate and other risks). And with interest rates low this risk is higher. The duration of your bonds (as well as credit/business risk) is a very important factor (the longer the duration the higher the interest rate risk).

    I also think the importance of asset allocation increases as your assets increase and the goal gets closer (normally retirement but also could be a child’s education fund…). And I think you need to look at more than just stocks versus bonds (different types of stocks, real estate… are important considerations). I discussed some possible retirement account allocations possibilities for early in life in a previous post.

    Related: Lazy Portfolio Results – Investing books – Roth IRA – Dollar Cost Averaging

  • Federal Deficit To Double This Year

    Federal Deficit To Double This Year

    A weak economy and a sharp increase in government spending will drive the federal budget deficit to a near-record $407 billion when the budget year ends later this month, and the next president is likely to face a shortfall in January of well over $500 billion, congressional budget analysts said yesterday.
    …
    The budget picture is likely to grow even bleaker once government analysts factor in the anticipated costs of the Treasury Department’s decision last weekend to take over struggling mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    It is no surprise those that spend what they don’t have personally elect those that do the same thing for the nation. But as those that spend money they don’t have eventually realize you have to become responsible at some point.

    Related: More Government Waste – True Level of USA Federal Deficit – Lobbyists Keep Tax Off Billion Dollar Private Equities Deals and On For Our Grandchildren

  • Ignorance of Capitalism

    Chatting with Obama by Bill O’Reilly

    You can decide if that’s change we should believe in, but keep in mind that the unintended consequences of government interference in the marketplace are impossible to predict. Free markets have a way of chafing under government imposition.

    I really wish people understood capitalism. Capitalism requires regulation. It was known to all the economist in Adam Smith’s time that the government must regulate or powerful forces that would not allow the free market to function as it should – which destroys the potential of capitalism. This is not some minor point, it is absolutely essential to the theory of how capitalism provides value to society.

    The ignorance that equates allowing manipulation of the market by powerful forces undermining capitalism (which is supported by those that claim to support capitalism – “regulation distorting free markets”) with disrupting the free market annoys me. I know I should accept that ignorance is just rampant but sometimes I can’t get over it. I truly support capitalism and seeing it abused by so many ignorant pundits and politicians is distressing.

    And when those with influence constantly reinforce ideas based on ignorance then many, that can’t think for themselves, accept idiotic ideas like “free markets” should allow oligopolies to consolidate reducing the benefits of capitalism, that polluters should be allowed to push negative externalities onto the public, that allowing trust fund babies to receive massive inheritances is good (capitalism is meant to reward those that contribute, not reward those who were related to someone useful) and that the inheritance tax is bad (it is the BEST tax that exists, arguably along with taxes on negative externalities) and on and on.

    The idiotic idea that government regulation of markets is interference is equivalent to saying police interfere with freedom by enforcing laws against violent crime. Yes the watchmen must be watched. You can have bad policing and bad regulation; but the idea that policing the free market, in itself is wrong, is so ignorant we have to stop accepting such claims as if they were anything but ravings of radicals or ignorant people (or people that are both).

    By the way I am using ignorant with the sense of “lacking knowledge or comprehension of the thing specified.” Sometimes the word is used to claim the other person’s opinion is wrong, which is not an accurate way to use the word. It is my opinion that those espousing crazy ideas like, free markets are those without regulation, don’t understand capitalism is based upon the idea of perfect competition. If they do, but have decided that fundamental aspect (along with negative externalities, rewards based on who your parents are instead of what you produce…) of capitalism is wrong, but they have a new theory that somehow updates capitalism I am waiting to hear about it. I am basing my guess of their ignorance on their statement seeming to be completely disconnected with capitalist theory.
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  • Bad News on Jobs

    The growth in the number of jobs in the USA continues to be bad. The growth in jobs has been very poor thus far this century. The good news has been unemployment has been fairly low, it now sits at a 4 year high of 5.7% (which is not great but not horrible by historic standards).

    Update: today the labor department announced the unemployment rate increased to 6.1%.

    This year the news has been worse, with actually declining numbers of jobs and some economics see No job turnaround on horizon:

    Economists expect another weak job report when the government releases its August employment figures Friday. But many also are predicting job losses to continue deep into 2009 as well. USA employers have already trimmed 463,000 jobs from the payrolls during the first seven months of the year.
    …
    “I’m not expecting increases in employment until next year because in the second half of this year we’ll see very lethargic economic growth,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers. The Conference Board has created a new reading called the Employment Trends Index, which combines a number of different economic readings to predict when employment will turn higher or lower. The index, which typically signals three to six months before job losses will turn to job gains, has yet to show signs of a recovery.

    “We think the unemployment rate will keep growing, probably reach between 6 to 6.5% by mid 2009 and only start declining in the second half of next year,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board.

    Related: What Do Unemployment Stats Mean? – Economic Fault: Income Inequality