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  • More Bad News on Inflation

    Wholesale Prices Rising at Fastest Pace Since 1981

    Wholesale prices jumped in July at the fastest rate in more than a quarter century, furthering concern about a continued increase in inflation at a time when economic activity has ebbed.

    New federal government data showed that the cost of materials used by businesses increased 1.2 percent in July and have risen 9.8 percent during the past 12 months. It was the largest yearly increase since 1981, as businesses absorbed sharp increases in energy and other commodity costs.

    Today’s report follows recent news that consumer prices are also rising faster than expected — and faster than the Federal Reserve’s generally accepted target rate of around 2 percent.

    Inflation can cause serious damage to your personal finances. As prices increase if you don’t get a raise (or your investments don’t raise) to match the increased costs you must pay your financial situation deteriorates. One benefit, to those with 30 year fixed rate mortgages, is that you get to pay back your loan with inflated dollars. This can be a huge advantage for some, and a huge loss for whoever holds the mortgage.

    Related: inflation risk for investmentsInflation is a Real ThreatFood Price Inflation is Quite Highposts on inflation

  • Naked Short Selling

    Short selling is when you sell something before you buy it (you try to sell high and then buy low later, instead of buying low and then selling high later). In order to sell short, you are required to borrow the shares that you then sell. So if I own 1,000 shares of Google (I wish), I could lend them to someone to sell. Nothing happens to my position, it is just that those shares are now allocated to that short sale. If I sell them then the short seller has to go borrow them elsewhere or buy the stock to close their position. In general the borrowing is either from brokers that hold shares for individuals or from large institution (mutual funds, insurance companies…).

    However from everything that I read it appears the SEC hasn’t bothered to actually enforce this law much. There was a bunch of excitement recently when the SEC announced it would bother to enforce the law to protect a few large banks, many of whom are said to practice naked short selling but didn’t like it when that was done to their stock. As you can see, this does make the SEC look pretty bad, when they chose to enforce a law, not in all circumstances, but only to protect a few of those who actually take advantage of the SEC’s failure to enforce the law to make money.

    CEOs Launch Web Site To Protect Short Sellers

    In 2005, the SEC required the publishing of the daily threshold lists, which include companies that have a high degree of FTDs [failure to deliver – stocks sold short with the promise they would borrow the shares but they then don’t]. Brokers are mandated 13 days to resolve any FTDs after landing on the lists. Despite this, some companies have been there for hundreds of days, with millions of failed shares.

    Some people find the whole concept of short selling bad since it is based on making money on stock price declines. I don’t feel that way and believe it can help the market. But it requires regulators that actually do their jobs and enforce laws. A favorite tacit of those who seek to keep open special ways for themselves to benefit from abusing the system is to try and make things seem complex. The recent SEC order saying they would enforce the intent of the law to protect a few powerful banks from the behavior many (or most) practice themselves for years shows that it isn’t that complicated.

    Adding the decision not to enforce the requirement to borrow shares to their recent decision to eliminate the requirement that short sales take place on down ticks in price (a measure put in after the 1929 stock market crash to not have short sellers accelerate market declines and insight panic seems like a really bad combination).

    Related: Shorting Using Inverse FundsMonopolies and Oligopolies do not a Free Market MakeFed Continues Wall Street WelfareSEC data on “failures to deliver”

  • Medieval Peasants had More Vacation Time

    There are ways to get more vacation time

    De Graff, national coordinator of Take Back Your Time Day, based his figures on the number of religious holidays peasants took off to eat, drink and spend time with their families, and found it was about two weeks extra.

    According to Robinson, mentioning to your boss that you are willing to go on vacation without any pay can often be a very effective way to get some time off.

    Take what you get: It may seem obvious, but many people don’t check how much time they are entitled to take off. Many others are reluctant to take the average nine days of paid vacation to which they are entitled, often because they are afraid it will show weakness or lack of loyalty.

    Joe Robinson said there may be “ongoing subtle discouragement” in the work force, but employees should remember that they are entitled to their vacation and should not be afraid to take it. In 2005, U.S. workers collectively turned down a staggering 1.6 million years of vacation time that was offered to them.

    I find these discussions of how little time off we have interesting. Similar studies look further back, at hunter gathers and find similar patterns. Still they are a bit misleading. What about total hours worked during the year (for peasants). What about the conditions of work and life. What about life expectancy… Still I agree with the thought that more vacation is more important than more work to fund more spending. I would rather reduce my spending and have more free time. I have taken unpaid vacation myself, and have worked part time, at times, to buy myself more freedom to spend my time as I wished.

    Related: Vacation: Systems ThinkingWorkplace Experiments

  • Apple Tops Google

    Today, the market capitalization of Apple exceeded Google for the first time since Google went public. Both Companies are now valued at $185 billion. In 2007 Google had revenue of $16.6 billion and net profit of $4.2 billion. Apple had revenue of $24 billion and net profit of $3.5 billion. Since Google went public on 27 August 2004 their stock price is up 367% and Apple is up 1064% – both pretty good. I own Google and have it as the largest holding in the 12 stocks for 10 years portfolio.

    Related: Buy GoogleStop Picking StocksLazy Portfolio ResultsGreat Google Earnings

  • Can I Afford That?

    I figure it is pretty easy to figure out if I can afford something. Do I have cash available (my paycheck already has retirement funds etc. deducted before it shows up in my checking account)? I also have a separate saving account for medium term savings and a separate brokerage account for long term investing (and a Roth IRA). So the money in my checking account basically is how much I have to spend. If I have the money and want to spend it, I can afford it. If I don’t have the money, I can’t afford it. I can just save until I can.

    There is a nice post, How to find out if you can afford something, that explores when that simple concept isn’t quite enough.

    For example, when determining if you can buy a car or not you not only after factor in the cost or monthly payments, but also insurance, gas and maintenance costs. The same applies for a home.

    I made this mistake when I decided to start a saltwater aquarium. I found a great deal on the tank and some supplies on Craigslist, and went ahead and bought it. What I didn’t factor in was the costs of additional supplies, fish and ongoing maintenance. Turns out, saltwater aquariums are an expensive hobby. In hindsight, I wish I had done my homework a little more.

    Good Advice. Related: Americans are Drowning in DebtToo Much StuffAdd to Your Roth IRATeaching Children About Money Matters

  • Mortgage Costs Rising

    Fannie Mae (the quasi government mortgage giant) is raising fees for mortgages it buys. Banks and mortgage lenders often sell the mortgage to Fannie Mae shortly after completing the loan. Mortgages get more expensive – again

    Fannie increased fees for some loans by a quarter of a percentage point, based on borrowers’ credit scores and the amount of their down payments. It will charge, for example, 1% (up from 0.75%) for a buyer with a credit score of 680 paying 20% down.

    And Fannie doubled its “adverse market delivery charge” to 0.5%. That is an across-the-board fee assessed against every loan Fannie buys, according to a Fannie spokeswoman. Fannie first instituted the charge this spring.

    The added fees will be passed on to borrowers and could mean quarter-point increases in interest rates.

    Fannie will also eliminate buying Alt-A loans by the end of 2008. Alt-A loans, a category between prime and subprime, accounted for about 11% of the company’s loans during the last years of the boom. They have been used mostly by people who couldn’t or wouldn’t document their incomes, their assets or both. These buyers will find it harder to obtain financing once Fannie stops buying the loans.

    According to Yun, however, the cutback in Alt-A will hurt people buying second homes to rent out or resell, rather than first time homeowners. “These are people who often rely on their good credit to buy investment properties putting little or no money down,” he said.

    Related: Mortgage Rates RisingFed Funds Rate Changes Don’t Indicate Mortgage Rate ChangesJumbo and Regular Mortgage Rates By Credit ScoreHomes Entering Foreclosure at Record

  • Bankruptcies Among Seniors Soaring

    Bankruptcies among seniors soaring

    The average age for filing bankruptcy has increased and the rate of bankruptcy among those ages 65 and older has more than doubled since 1991, say researchers Teresa Sullivan of the University of Michigan, Deborah Thorne of Ohio University and Elizabeth Warren of Harvard Law School.

    Expensive health care costs from a serious illness before a patient received Medicare and the inability to work during and after a serious illness are the prime contributors to financial crises among those 55 and older. But even among those 75 to 84 and receiving retirement, Social Security and Medicare benefits, the rates soared—from just 1.8 percent of all filers in 1991 to 5 percent in 2007.

    Most Americans have two major assets: their homes and their retirement plans. And borrowing against those assets can present new risks when home values and stock markets decline, Sullivan and colleagues say. In some cases, older Americans trying to help children and grandchildren, borrow too much, putting themselves at risk.

    Related: Boomers Face RetirementRetirement Tips from TIAA CREFSaving for Retirement

  • Jumbo v. Regular Fixed Mortgage Rates: by Credit Score

    Example 30 year mortgage rates (from myfico.com – see site for current rate estimates). Previous posts on this topic: Feb 2008August 2007May 2007. Since the last post both jumbo and conforming mortgages rates are up (and are up most for high credit scores).

    FICO score APR Aug 2008 APR Aug 2008 – jumbo APR Feb 2008 APR Feb 2008 – jumbo APR Aug 2007 APR May 2007
    760-850 6.12% 7.00% 5.53% 6.61% 6.27% 5.86%
    700-759 6.34% 7.22% 5.75% 6.83% 6.49% 6.08%
    660-699 6.62% 7.50% 6.04% 7.12% 6.77% 6.37%
    620-659 7.43% 8.31% 6.85% 7.93% 7.58% 7.18%
    580-619 9.45% 9.63% 9.22% 9.40% 9.32% 8.82%
    500-579 10.31% 10.49% 10.20% 10.37% 10.31% 9.68%

    For scores above 620, the APRs above assume a mortgage with 1.0 points and 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio. For scores below 620, these APRs assume a mortgage with 0 points and 60 to 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio.

    Since February the premium for jumbo loans has decreased to 88 basis points (from 108) for all credit scores above 620 (the combination of higher down payment and higher regular interest rates below 620 result in very little premium from Jumbo loans, under 20 basis points.

    Related: 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate DataLearning About MortgagesHow Much Worse Can the Mortgage Crisis Get?Real Free Credit Report (in USA)

  • Spending Guidelines in Retirement

    Retirement planning is a huge financial need and one of the areas where financial literacy can pay off very well. Understanding the incredible power of compound interest can be used to start your retirement savings early and provide you with a huge benefit. Understanding the risks of inflation can guide your investment decisions. The recent Business Week Retirement Guide is very good. In Spending Safely, they explore how to spend while preserving your capital in retirement.

    For more than a decade, financial advisers have warned retirees that draining over 4% of their nest eggs in their inaugural retirement year could ultimately lead to financial ruin.

    Bengen now suggests that the 4% figure – actually 4.1% for a 60/40 portfolio of large caps and bonds and 4.5% if you toss in small caps – merely seems impressive when plugged into Excel (MSFT) spreadsheets. In practice, the strategy, which Bengen stopped using with his own clients about three years ago, is inflexible and unrealistic he says – and the formula is too stingy.

    Flexibility is factored into Bengen’s revised approach, which permits withdrawals to fluctuate within guidelines. His “floor-and-ceiling strategy” suggests that an initial withdrawal rate of 5.16% would be appropriate if a retiree pares back subsequent withdrawals by as much as 10% of the initial withdrawal during hard times (the floor). On the other hand, a retiree could withdraw extra cash equaling up to 25% of the first-year withdrawal (the ceiling) when the market is strong.

    This adjusted thinking is correct I believe. People want simpler answers but some things just require a more complex understanding.

    Related: How Much Retirement Income?Add to Your Roth IRARetirement Tips from TIAA CREFOur Only Hope: Retiring Later

  • Parfrey’s Glen, Wisconsin Photos

    John Hunter Durwood Glen

    photo of Yellow Flower in Parfreys Glen

    See more photos from my visit to Parfrey’s Glen Natural Area in Wisconsin, about an hour outside of Madison. It really was amazingly beautiful – the pictures do not do it justice. The Parfrey’s Glen trail is under a mile but well worth visiting. If you want to hike more try the Ice Age National Scenic Trail or nearby Devil’s Lake State Park. The top photo is of me (John Hunter) at nearby Durwood’s Glen. The yellow flower is from Parfrey’s Glen.

    Related: Clifton Gorge State Nature Preserve, OhioMesa Trail Boulder, ColoradoNature Recreation DecliningMason Neck State Park, Virginia

    Parfrey’s Glen is Wisconsin’s first State Natural Area, is a spectacular gorge deeply incised into the sandstone conglomerate of the south flank of the Baraboo Hills. The exposed Cambrian strata provide excellent opportunities for geological interpretation. The walls of the glen – a Scottish word for a narrow, rocky ravine – are sandstone with embedded pebbles and boulders of quartzite.