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  • Longer Commutes Translate to Larger Housing Price Declines

    Home Prices Drop Most in Areas with Long Commute by Kathleen Schalch

    Economists say home prices are nowhere near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And a pattern is emerging as to which neighborhoods those are. The ones with short commutes are faring better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what has long been inexorable — urban sprawl.

    The Washington, D.C., metropolitan area has been hit hard. Prices tumbled an average of 11 percent in the past year. That’s the big picture. But a look at Ashburn, Va., about 40 miles from the center of town, finds a steeper fall.
    …
    Jonathan Hill, vice president of Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, which tracks home sales, sat in his office recently, clicking through page after page of price data sorted by ZIP code. There were a lot of negative numbers, but not in places that are close in or near public transit.
    …
    David Stiff, chief economist for the company that produces the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, saw the trend in other cities, as well – including Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, San Diego, Miami and Boston. Stiff recently matched home resale values against commute times and found that in most of these major metropolitan areas, the trend is the same. The longer the commute, the steeper the drop in prices.

    Related: Urban Planning – How Walkable is Your Prospective Neighborhood – Exurbs Hardest Hit in Recent Housing Slump (Feb 2007)

  • Personal Finance Basics: Health Insurance

    Much of personal finance is not amazingly complex once you take some time to lay out the basics. We have covered some important topics previously: tips on using credit cards, retirement saving, creating an emergency fund… One of the most critical factors is to insure yourself against possible catastrophic events.

    Some personal finance mistakes can set you behind, say falling to save for retirement when you are 28 or cashing in your 401(k) when you switch jobs at 27. Those mistakes however are most often manageable. You just need to save more later. For health insurance the critical need is to protect yourself from huge costs.

    Bankruptcies are a huge problem due to health costs. If you have done everything else right and have saved up say $150,000 in mutual funds (in addition to retirement savings and a house) at age 40 but have no health insurance there is little I can think of more likely to result in your losing that saving than a health crisis when you are without coverage (disability insurance is another critical personal finance need that I will discuss in another post and the another such risk – as is an uninsured home). The costs of health care are just too large for any but the richest to survive a major cost without either ruining an entire lifetime of smart financial moves or coming close.

    There are certain things that cannot be compromised in your personal financial situation. Health coverage for significant costs is one of those. If you can afford a $5,000 (or higher) deductible that is fine. The critical need for health insurance is not the first $2,000 or $20,000 but the 2nd, 3rd, 4th… $100,000 bill. A bill for $2,000 you can’t afford is a challenge but a bill for $100,000 you can’t afford can ruin decades of smart and diligent financial moves.
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  • Gen X Retirement

    Half of Gen X Doesn’t Expect to Retire

    Boomers who are frustrated that they can’t afford to retire may turn out to be lucky compared to their kids. A new survey shows that more than two-thirds of Generation X don’t think they’ll be able to retire at all.
    …
    “They are earning money and paying into Social Security and yet they fear they may never see the payback,” said Moloney. “They feel they deserve it, but it looks like a financial black hole to them right now.”

    The government certainly is failing to pay for future obligations today instead choosing to raise taxes on the future. But Social Security itself is actually in better shape than most think. We really do need to move out the benefit payment date (when it began projected life expectancy was almost the same as the date payments would start – which would mean moving the retirement date more than 15 years later, I believe). Going that far is not needed but it should be moved back. But really social security is in good shape for 30 years or more. First, it isn’t going to go from good shape to failed in a day. And second, they will make adjustments as they have in the past to make it work (the adjustment they made in the last 15 years helped a great deal so now they can just add some additional delays in when it starts paying out… and extend the good condition of Social Security without too much trouble).

    Medicare is the huge problem. The country either needs to stop paying an extra 50-80% for health care than other countries do (and thus reduce the cost of Medicare liabilities) or massively cut benefits or massively increase taxes. Likely a combination of all 3.
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  • World’s Wealthiest People

    Nationalities of the 25 richest people:

    Country Number
    Russia   7
    India   4
    USA   4
    Hong Kong   2
    Germany   2
    France   2
    Mexico   1
    Sweden   1
    Spain   1
    Saudi Arabia   1

    11 Richest in order: Warren Buffett, USA $62Billion; Carlos Slim Helu & family, Mexico, $60B; William Gates III, USA $58B; Lakshmi Mittal, $45B; Mukesh Ambani, India, $43B; Anil Ambani, India, $42B; Ingvar Kamprad & family, Sweden, $31B; KP Singh, India, $30B; Oleg Deripaska, Russia, $28B; Karl Albrecht, Germany, $27B; Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong $26.5B.

    Data from Forbes 2008 Billionaires List, using country of citizenship. Using stock values on 11 February, 2008.

    Related: Best Research University Rankings (2007) – Top 10 Manufacturing Countries (2006) – How Rich Are You?

  • The Budget Deficit, the Current Account Deficit and the Saving Deficit

    Read a nice review of The Budget Deficit, the Current Account Deficit and the Saving Deficit:

    Reducing the Deficits. What are the policy implications of these interdependent imbalances? Here are three:

    • Tax incentives to encourage saving would likely also stimulate investment and lower both the budget deficit and the trade deficit.
    • Reducing the budget deficit would reduce the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to foreign creditors; rising deficits could lead to foreigners dumping dollar assets, causing equities to decline, interest rates to spike and the dollar to plunge.
    • Reducing the budget deficit doesn’t necessarily mean higher tax rates; marginal rate cuts reinforced by slower government spending growth would be ideal incentives.

    Unfortunately, the recent tax “rebates” designed to stimulate the economy dealt a setback to budget discipline. Most people probably understand that. What they probably don’t understand is that the increased budget deficit will also tend to worsen our international balance of payments and weaken the dollar. The hip bone is connected to the thigh bone; so policymakers need to study these interconnected deficits. They need to borrow my boxes.

    More economics related posts

  • Credit Crisis Continues

    US banks Citigroup and Merrill Lynch reveal fresh $15bn loss

    In another sign of the intense pressure on leading banks, Deutsche Bank is attempting to offload some of its €35 billion (£28 billion) of toxic debt to a consortium of private-equity firms. Huge exposure to American mortgages is expected to result in Citi taking a $10 billion hit to its accounts, dragging the bank to a first-quarter loss of almost $3 billion. Some analysts believe Citi’s write-downs could stretch to as much as $12 billion.

    Merrill will suffer $5 billion of write-downs, analysts say, which would push the bank $2.7 billion into the red. t is expected to knock a further 20% from the value of its sub-prime holdings, in spite of the fact that it announced $18 billion of write-downs only three months ago. The new rash of Wall Street losses and write-downs come in addition to the billions that have already been recorded.

    The world’s biggest banks have suffered losses and write-downs totalling almost $250 billion since the beginning of 2007, according to analysts. Last week the IMF shocked markets by saying that global losses from the credit crisis could rise to $945 billion.

    The language becomes even more extreme as the losses balloon.

    Related: Fed Continues Wall Street Welfare – Credit Crisis (Aug 2007) – Central Bank Intervention Unprecedented in scale and Scope – Soros Says Credit Crisis Will Worsen Before Improving – Volcker: Spendthrift Americans Bred Credit Crisis

  • Creating a World Without Poverty

    Creating a World Without Poverty by Muhammah Yunus (founder of the Grameen Bank and 2006 Nobel Peace Prize recipient). Giving people the opportunity to advance economically is something I see as very important. It is hard to imagine in the USA when those that are seen as poor have air conditioning, indoor plumbing, cars, TVs, electricity… but billions of people would love to approach such material wealth.

    When you really have to struggle to put food on your plate or get clean water economic concerns are critically important. Economic progress may well decide whether your children live or not. Muhammah Yunus’ new book is a good read to hopefully encourage more people to realize there really are much more important things than your fourth pair or shoes (to say nothing of you 20th pair) or expensive wine or a newer car or…

    Microfinance is a great system where those that have been lucky to receive material wealth can help provide opportunity to others. Loans of $200-$500 can make a huge difference in an entrepreneurs life. Just giving them the chance to use their intellect and hard work to create a life where they can get raise themselves slightly can change their lives, their children’s lives and together with others perhaps their community.

    Trickle Up, Kiva and Grameen Bank are three great ways to help give entrepreneurs a chance to improve their lives. As I have mentioned before if you are a Kiva lender add a comment with your Kiva page and I will add a link to: Curious Cat Kiva Supporters. I will say I am happy with the success of this blog in general, the thing that disappoints me is how few links we have on that page.

    Related: Microfinancing Entrepreneurs – Interview with Mohammad Yunus – Trying to Keep up with the Jones – Providing a Helping Hand via Kiva – Curious Cat Science and Engineering blog posts on appropriate technology

  • Lazy Portfolio Results

    Lazy Portfolios update by Paul Farrell provides some examples of how to use index funds to manage your investments:

    These portfolios are virtually “zero maintenance!” Set them and forget them. Plus you can ignore Wall Street’s relentless, misleading chatter about markets and the economy. Seriously. After customizing your own Lazy Portfolio you can ignore the news and focus on what’s really important: your family, loved ones, friends, your career, hobbies, travel — you name it — anything but wasting time tracking and playing the market.

    I think the article is a bit misleading in showing the out-performance of the S&P 500 index (during periods where the S&P 500 index does very well these portfolios will under-perform it). The out-performance shown in the article is largely due to the great performance of international markets recently. Still the strategy is well worth reading about. The strategy is based on using index funds from Vanguard (very well run mutual funds with very low fees). But don’t get tied into Vanguard, if they start to focus on lining their pockets by increasing your fees look for alternatives.

    Overall, I give this concept high marks. Dollar cost average appropriate levels of money into such a strategy and you will give yourself a good chance at positive results.

    My preference would be to include significant levels of international and developing stocks. For aggressive long term investing I like something like:

    40% USA total stock market
    15% Real Estate
    25% international developed stock market index
    20% developing stock market index

    When aiming for more security and preserving capital (over growth) I favor something like:

    30% USA total stock market
    10% Real Estate
    25% international developed stock market index
    10% developing stock market index
    10% short term bond index
    15% money market

    Of course all sorts of personal financial factors need to be considered for any specific person’s allocations.

    Related: Allocating Retirement Account Assets – Why Investing is Safer Overseas – Saving for Retirement – 12 stocks for 10 years – what is a mutual fund?

  • What Should You Do With Your Government “Stimulus” Check?

    What Should You Do With a Check Out of the Blue?

    The USA government is sending out checks to taxpayers in an effort to encourage spending which in turn will provide stimulus to the economy in the very short term. First, this is bad policy in my opinion. Second, if you support this policy the precondition is you run surpluses in order to pay for it when you want to carry out such a policy. They have not, instead they have run huge deficits. What they have chosen to do is spend huge amounts and have the taxes paid by the children and grandchildren of those the politicians are spending the money on today. I would support Keynesian government spending in a serious recession or depression – just not for a country already with enormous debts and in a very mild recession.

    But ok, so the government chooses to spend your children’s taxes foolishly, what should you do now? This is very easy. Whatever is the wisest move for your personal financial situation for any windfall you receive, regardless of the source of that windfall. If all your savings needs are met there is nothing wrong with buying some toy. But most people need to pay off debt, build an emergency fund, save for retirement or something similar not get another toy. Of course would be nothing wrong with donating it Kiva, Trickle Up, the Concord Coalition or your favorite charity.

    The politicians are acting like a 5 year old that wants a new toy. I can too get the new toy now :-O, Mommy you can use your credit card. So what if you already bought me so many toys you couldn’t afford by using your other credit cards and they won’t lend you any more money. Just get another one. Similar to how congress recently yet again increased the allowable federal debt limit to over $9,000,000,000,000.

    The stimulus effect of spending is that if you actually purchase a new toy (say a TV), then the store needs to replace that TV so the factory makes another TV… The store, shipper, factory, supplier to the factory all pay staff to carry this out, those staff can buy new books, dishwasher… and the business may buy a new forklift or computer to keep up…
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  • $2,540,000,000,000 in USA Consumer Debt

    U.S. Consumer Borrowing Rose $5.2 Billion in February

    Consumer credit increased $5.2 billion for the month to $2.54 trillion, the Fed said today in Washington. In January, credit gained $10.3 billion, more than a previously reported increase of $6.9 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate, such as home-equity loans.

    $2.54 Trillion seems like a great deal to me. Based on a population of 300 million people that would mean $8,467 for every person in just personal debt. USA GDP = $13 trillion. USA federal debt = $9.4 trillion (based on the USA government accounting – so way understating the true debt). USA federal budget $3 trillion.

    Related: Americans are Drowning in Debt – Too Much Personal Debt (UK, £1.3 trillion in 2006 – even more than the USA) – Incredibly Bad Customer Service from Discover Card