Investing Curiouscatblog

Category: Financial Literacy

  • USA Living Beyond Means

    Comptroller Says Medicare Program Endangers Financial Stability:

    What would happen in 2040 if nothing changes? “If nothing changes, the federal government’s not gonna be able to do much more than pay interest on the mounting debt and some entitlement benefits. It won’t have money left for anything else – national defense, homeland security, education, you name it,” Walker warns.
    …
    Asked if he knows any politicians willing to raise taxes or cut back benefits, Walker says, “I don’t know politicians that like to raise taxes. I don’t know politicians that like to cut spending, but I think what we have to recognize is this is not just about numbers. We are mortgaging the future of our children and grandchildren at record rates, and that is not only an issue of fiscal irresponsibility, it’s an issue of immorality.”

    Strong words and I agree, as stated in: Washington Paying Out Money it Doesn’t Have and USA Federal Debt Now $516,348 Per Household.

  • Old and Wealthy

    I am not exactly sure why but for some reason people seem very ignorant of the wealth distribution by age. The richest group by far are those over 65. There are several reasons for this including self preservation. Once you stop working you better have a large pool of capital or you will most likely have little income (you could have a great pension and no other savings but…). Another is that the “miracle” of compound interest. Those that actually saved enough for retirement often find their investments out-earning their spending thus wealth increasing yearly. This effect over time results in wealth increasing dramatically. Many of those that failed to save enough will have their savings dissolve very quickly thus leaving the inverse of a bell curve (a high number of wealthy and of poor and a lessor number in the middle). Social Security helps those that failed to save enough for retirement to slow the decline (and those that saved enough to become even wealthier even faster). The presence of large numbers of poor elderly I think is one reason so many are surprised that they are the richest age group.

    I used to be surprised how few people know this – now I know, for those I talk to anyway, they are always surprised. This has several public policy impacts such as why do we have a huge “social security transfer system” (social security including medicare) to move money from the young to the old when the old are wealthier than the young? People see the 7.65% deducted from their check but the employer has to pay an equal amount to this transfer of wealth between the generations bringing the total to 15.3%.

    It doesn’t make much sense to me to have those working at Wal-mart and McDonalds transfer 15.3% of the income from their labor to much wealthier people. Yes, paying something in I think is fair. But the system should be adjusted. One method I would use is to reduce (or eliminate) payments to the wealthy elderly (continuing the existing payments to the poor elderly is affordable so I see continuing those payments as good public policy) and reduce taxes on the working poor. Obviously others disagree so we transfer a large amount of money from those working at Wal-mart to those with hundreds of thousands in investments. I think this is wrong. I wish at least the facts would be known so that the decision is made with awareness of the facts.

    The median net worth of people 55 to 64 has climbed to nearly $250,000, while it has dropped to about $50,000 for those in their late 30s
    …
    The growing divide between the rich and poor in America is more generation gap than class conflict, according to a USA TODAY analysis of federal government data. The rich are getting richer, but what’s received little attention is who these rich people are. Overwhelmingly, they’re older folks. Nearly all additional wealth created in the USA since 1989 has gone to people 55 and older, according to Federal Reserve data. Wealth has doubled since 1989 in households headed by older Americans.
    …
    The implications are far-reaching and can turn conventional wisdom on its head. Social Security and Medicare increasingly are functioning as a transfer of money from less affluent young people to much wealthier older people.

    Wow, I don’t recall seeing publications actually point out this fact very often. Good for the USA Today.
    (more…)

  • Customer Hostility from Discover Card

    I am not even expecting good customer service but how about just the absence of customer hostility. The latest from Discover Card. I still have not received the money they said they would send (waiting more than a month now) – this is the amount they overcharged my bank (after they had already been told the charges were invalid. I guess it is acceptable to charge me for charges they knew were invalid?). But heck even accepting that, how about paying that money back as they said they would.

    Amazingly they did send me a “bill” [with a balance they owe me instead of me owing them so it is not really a bill in the sense of money I owe them] for the account they said didn’t exist which was the reason they claimed that they could not pay the cash back bonus they promised. If people didn’t expect credit card companies to provide outrageously bad customer service wouldn’t this be seen as shockingly bad – so much so that certainly no company would tolerate it if it was brought to their attention. Well, we have evidence that such a thought is not true when dealing with Discover Card.

    So according to Discover they don’t owe the money on the cash back bonus they promised because the account is closed. Yet they send me a bill (with a balance owed to me but it is exactly like the bill I would get from them each month including the cashback bonus section where instead of listing the amount they promised to pay me they list $0) that has an new account number on it. Paying what they promised in cash back bonus doesn’t seem like it would be hard (and frankly I can’t imagine not paying it in this circumstance can be acceptable according to the rules but who has the time to try and fight with them). And they don’t send the money that even they agree they owe, but instead just send a bill? What are they thinking?

    As I said in a previous post if Discover Card pays the money they owe I will add an equal amount of my own money and lend that amount through Kiva (a charity that arranges loans from individuals to those in need worldwide on the micro-lending model). And I will either continue to roll those loans over for at least 10 years or I will donate the entire amount to a micro-lending charity (if for example Kiva shuts down or I decide that they are not doing a good job or whatever).
    (more…)

  • $10 DSL

    AT&T $10 DSL Today

    We’ve confirmed with AT&T HQ that the company is offering $10 768kbps DSL starting today across their 22-state footprint (new customers only, one-year contract and bundled landline required). The $10 DSL was something they agreed to offer as a BellSouth merger condition, but unless they plan on issuing a Saturday press release later today, they apparently don’t intend to tell anyone (via website, press release, or via any other form) that they’re actually offering it.

    The merger condition required they offer the price point for 2.5 years. Unfortunately it appears it didn’t require that AT&T actually tell anyone about it.

    So you can get discount DSL, if you live in the service area, and can figure out how to get the company to allow you to get the price they proposed to the court to bolster their case for merger approval. It sure would be nice if you could deal with companies that didn’t seem to have teams of lawyers kept busy trying to figure out how to say one thing while tricking customers out of as much money as possible. It seems to me we are getting less and less ethical. We just accept that companies are going to try and trick customers into paying as much as possible. My belief that you should just provide an honest service or product at a fair price seems to be some quaint old idea 🙁 But since that seems to be the case you have to treat companies as though they are going to trick you in any way they can. Be careful out there.

    Related: Incredibly Bad Customer Service from Discover Card – Fake Checks That Make You Pay – Companies Claim to Value Customers

  • Why Investing is Safer Overseas

    Jim Jubak makes a good case for why investing is safer overseas now.

    To which I say: Wake up and smell the new world order. The U.S. financial markets are relatively riskier now than they were five years ago, and (many) emerging country financial markets are relatively less risky. If you haven’t updated your view of what’s called country risk in the last five years, you’re costing yourself money.
    …
    And as I look ahead, I see few signs that the United States will put its financial ship into better trim and lower the country risk that comes with owning U.S. equities and bonds.
    …
    I think you need to compare markets one by one to look for those where investors, who tend to stick with the conventional wisdom until something whacks them over the head, have mispriced risk. The countries that I find particularly interesting as investment targets are those that have made the biggest strides in getting their houses in order.

    He makes a good point. I have long advocated the benefits of international investing. And looking forward the potential for economic development (and investment gains) outside the USA are strong. As he says this does not mean abandoning the USA stock market but does mean thinking about increasing ownership of foreign stocks (probably using mutual funds though in our 10 stocks for 10 year portfolio we have 3 individual stocks: Toyota, Tesco (added in the December 2006 update), PetroChina and Templeton Dragon Fund [closed end mutual fund]).

    Related: State of the nation? Broke – Our Only Hope: Retiring Later

  • Fourteen Fold Increase in 31 Years

    chart of house price increases by country

    From 1975 to 2006 house prices in the UK increased 14 times. At 14 times that works out to about a 9% annual rate of return which is doesn’t sound nearly as impressive as a 14 fold increase to most people (I believe). The article does not mention if the chart is adjusted for inflation (a 9% return after inflation is incredibly good, a 9% return before factoring in inflation – which would reduce the rate of return – is good but reasonable) – my guess is that the chart is adjusted for inflation (meaning Britain’s owning real estate have been fortunate). Online calculator for annual rates of return over time.

    Real estate rate of returns (when calculated on the total price) also underestimate the “real return” most investors experience because investors often only put down a portion of the investment. So the real rate of return is increased dramatically to the investor as a result of the the multiplier effect of buying on margin. Of course, real estate also has expense related to upkeep and the advantage of providing a place to live…

    The graph (from the economist – see: Through the roof) shows other countries, USA: about 6 times, France 9 times… Remember these rates are averages for entire countries some areas in each country will have far exceeded these rates.

    The graph could be a bit better if they didn’t make several of the colors almost the same.

    Related: More Non Bubble Bursting in Housing – Europe and USA Housing Price Boom – How Not to Convert Equity – 30 year fixed Mortgage Rates

  • Study on Real Estate Sales With and Without Realtors

    Realtors take a large percentage of a home’s sale price for their services. It has never made much sense to me. It does not seem like the services are proportional to the sales price. I don’t see how it costs 5 times more to sell a $1,000,000 house than a $200,000 house. The Freakonomics authors have commented on the problems caused by the way realtors charge for services.

    Study Offers Provocative Comparison of Selling a Home:

    The research suggests that some sellers seem to be better at getting a favorable price. They might be better at marketing and bargaining or are more patient; they also are more likely to choose to use FSBO. “Sellers in Madison appear to sort themselves as expected across platforms, the more patient and astute ones going to FSBO, and those who need more help or a quick transaction going to MLS,” said Ortalo-Magné.

    “Our results are good news for buyers,” he said. “The price buyers pay appears to be driven entirely by the characteristics of the property and of the seller. Whether the property is sold through FSBOMadison.com or a realtor appears to make little difference in terms of purchase price.” “Realtors undoubtedly can provide value to sellers,” Nevo concluded. “But our research shows that for-sale-by-owner Web sites increasingly are making selling your own home more appealing and offering a viable alternative to realtors.”

    Study: The Relative Performance of Real Estate Marketing Platforms: MLS versus FSBOMadison.com (pdf)

  • Frugality Versus Better Returns

    Very nice illustration in Personal Finance Success Comes More From Smart Budgeting Than Smart Investing:

    Let’s say Kevin and I both make $50,000 a year. Kevin spends his spare time chasing individual stocks; I spend my spare time looking for frugal living ideas. Kevin spends $45,000 in a year and is thus able to invest $5,000 a year, while I, through budgeting and frugal living, only spend $40,000 in a year and am thus able to invest $10,000 a year.

    Now, Kevin’s a smart investing cookie and is able to crank out a 16% return each year. I just take my money, dump it in a Vanguard 500, and move on with life, which means over the long haul I earn a 12% return. Who earns more in the long run?

    After five years of this same investing, Kevin has $34,385.68 in his investment account, while I have $63,528.47 in mine, a difference of $29,142.79 in the frugal guy’s favor. Even at the twenty five year mark, if the investments have continued for that long, Kevin has $1,246,070.12 in his account, while I have $1,333,338.70 in mine, a difference of $87,268.58.

    I would use lower returns (to better match what I think is reasonable to use in projections about the future) but by using higher returns it actually makes a stronger point (the compounding at 16% is extraordinary – I was actually surprised that at the 25 year mark that the results were the way they were). The lesson is powerful. Your personal finance situation is a factor of several things, but very close to the most important is just actually saving money, as the post illustrates.

    Related: Trying to Keep up with the Jones – Earn more, spend more, want more – Living on Less – Saving for Retirement – How much have people saved?

  • The Widening “Marriage Gap” is Breeding Income Inequality

    The frayed knot

    And the divorce rate among college-educated women has plummeted. Of those who first tied the knot between 1975 and 1979, 29% were divorced within ten years. Among those who first married between 1990 and 1994, only 16.5% were.

    At the bottom of the education scale, the picture is reversed. Among high-school dropouts, the divorce rate rose from 38% for those who first married in 1975-79 to 46% for those who first married in 1990-94. Among those with a high school diploma but no college, it rose from 35% to 38%. And these figures are only part of the story. Many mothers avoid divorce by never marrying in the first place. The out-of-wedlock birth rate among women who drop out of high school is 15%. Among African-Americans, it is a staggering 67%.

    Does this matter? Kay Hymowitz of the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think-tank, says it does. In her book “Marriage and Caste in America”, she argues that the “marriage gap” is the chief source of the country’s notorious and widening inequality. Middle-class kids growing up with two biological parents are “socialised for success”. They do better in school, get better jobs and go on to create intact families of their own. Children of single parents or broken families do worse in school, get worse jobs and go on to have children out of wedlock.

  • Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap

    The article is definitely worth reading, read the “related items” also – The Poverty Business from Business Week:

    “Having access to credit should be helping low-income individuals,” says Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “But instead of becoming an opportunity for upward social and economic mobility, it becomes a debt trap for many trying to move up.”

    Why? Mainly due to financial illiteracy. Except in the most extreme circumstance (and then for a short time only) it does not make sense to borrow (given the current interest rates) at an interest rate above 15% (and other than large purchases – car, house… borrowing is normally unhealthy for your financial well being). If you want a new computer, new TV… “rent to own” effective interest rates are horrendous. Just save the money needed and then buy what you want. Borrowing worsens your financial position and since most making such bad financial choices already have a very weak financial position the impact is even more negative. One goal of this blog is to help people become financially literate, so they can improve their economic position by making intelligent financial choices.

    One very simple but powerful personal finance tip: save money to buy what you want, don’t borrow to buy what you want. And a related tip, save money to act as an emergency fund. If you don’t create an emergency fund it is far too easy to find yourself in need of emergency funds and then being forced to borrow and getting yourself trapped in a downward spiral.