Investing Curiouscatblog

Category: Retirement

  • Managing Retirement Investment Risks

    The Society for Actuaries has published a good resource: Managing post-retirement risks.

    Experts disagree about when annuitization is a good strategy. Disadvantages include losing control of assets, costs, and inability to leave money to one’s heirs. Annuities without inflation protection are only partial protection against living “too long.”
    …
    Many investors try to own some assets whose value may grow in times of inflation. However, this sometimes will trade inflation risk for investment risk.
    • Common stocks have outperformed inflation in the long run, but are
    poor short-term hedges. The historically higher returns from stocks
    are not guaranteed and may vary greatly during retirement years.
    …
    Retirement planning should not rely heavily on income from a bridge job. Many retirees welcome the chance to change careers and move into an area with less pay but more job satisfaction, or with fewer demands on their time and energy.

    Terminating employment before age 65 may make it difficult to find a source of affordable health insurance before Medicare is available.
    …
    Insurance for long-term care covers disabilities so severe that assistance is needed with daily activities such as bathing, dressing and eating. Some policies require a nursing home stay; others do not. The cost of long-term care insurance is much less if purchased at younger ages, well before anticipated need.

    The full document is well worth reading.

    Related: Many Retirees Face Prospect of Outliving Savings – How to Protect Your Financial Health – Financial Planning Made Easy – personal finance tips

  • Bogle on the Retirement Crisis

    John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard Group and a well respected investment mind. He has written several good books including: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, Common Sense on Mutual Funds and Bogle on Mutual Funds. This interview from 2006 discusses the state of the retirement system, before the credit crisis.

    John Bogle: The whole retirement system, in fact, in the country is in, I think, very poor shape, and it’s going to be the next big financial crisis in the country, I honestly believe. … The private pension plans are underfunded by an estimated $400 billion, and the state and local government plans are underfunded by an estimated $800 billion. That’s a $1.2 trillion shortfall between the assets the plans have and the liabilities they will have to the pensioners as they pay out their retirement checks over the rest of their lifetimes.

    Frontline: How do they get away with that? Don’t they have to fund them?

    John Bogle: No, they don’t, because a lot of it is based on assumptions. Our corporations are now assuming that future returns in their pension plan will be about 8.5 percent per year, and that’s not going to happen. The future returns in the bond market will be about 4.5 percent, and maybe if we’re lucky 7.5 percent on stocks. Call it a 6 percent return — before you deduct the cost of investing all that money, the turnover cost, the management fees. So maybe a 5 percent return is going to be possible, in my judgment, and they are estimating 8.5 percent.

    Why? Because when they do it that way, corporation earnings become greatly overstated, and all the executives get nice, big bonuses. They are using pension plan assumptions as a way to manage corporate earnings and meet the expectations of Wall Street.

    Frontline: So if a company overstates the value of its pension plan assets, it makes the company look better to Wall Street, so there’s an incentive to kind of exaggerate, if not cheat.

    John Bogle: That is precisely correct. And let me clear on the cheating: It’s legal cheating; it’s not illegal cheating. In other words, you can change any reasonable set of numbers — and corporations have done this, have raised the pension assumption from 7 percent to 8.5 percent — and all of a sudden that corporation will report an earnings gain for the year rather than an earnings loss that they would otherwise have. Simple, legal.

    The entire PBS series (from 2006) on 401(k)s (including interviews with Elizabeth Warren, David Wray and Alicia Munnell) is worth reading.

    In February of 2009 he spoke to the House of Representatives committee exploring retirement security.
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  • Immediate Annuities

    Life Insurers Profit as Retirees Fear Outliving Cash by Alexis Leondis

    Sales of so-called immediate annuities are climbing as retirees are drawn to lifetime payments guaranteed by U.S. insurance companies. Immediate annuities pay a periodic fixed amount of money for life in exchange for a lump-sum payment.
    …
    Payouts among insurers vary significantly, said Weatherford of NAVA. Monthly payments range from $629 to $745 for a $100,000 investment by a 65-year-old male, according to a survey of six issuers by Hueler Companies, a Minneapolis-based data research firm and provider of an independent annuity platform.

    An annuity is a comforting in that you cannot outlive your annuity payment. However, there are drawbacks also. Having a portion of retirement financing based on annuity payments does help planning. Social security payments are effectively an annuity (that also increases each year, to counter inflation). While living off social security payments alone is not an enticing prospect, as a portion of a retirement plan those payments can be valuable. If you have a pension that can also serve as an annuity.

    It can make sense to put a portion of retirement assets into an annuity however I would limit the amount, myself. And the annuity payout is partially determined by current interest rates, which are very low, and those now the payout rates are low. If interest rates stay low, then you lose nothing but if interest rates increase substantially in the next several year (which is certainly possible) the payout for annuities would likely increase.

    Choosing to purchase an annuity is something that should be done after careful study and only once you understand the investment options available to you. Also you need to have saved up substantial retirement saving to take advantage of the option to buy enough monthly income to contribute substantially to your retirement (so don’t forget to do that while you are working).

    Related: Many Retirees Face Prospect of Outliving Savings – Spending Guidelines in Retirement – Retirement Tips from TIAA CREF – Social Security Trust Fund

  • Add to Your 401(k) and IRA

    The recent performance of investments can be discouraging. However, the most damaging reaction to your financial future is to reduce your contributions to retirement savings. IRAs and 401(k)s are great ways to save for retirement. In fact the recent performance has convinced me to increase my contributions. This is for two reasons.

    First, I had been somewhat optimistic in my guesses about investment returns. The current decline means that investments in the S&P 500 have returned about 0% over the last 10 years. That is a horrible performance and it will take many years to even bring that up to a bad performance. So if you reduce your long term investment performance expectations you need to add more while you are working (or reduce your retirement expectations – or work longer).

    Second, I think now is a very good time (long term) to be investing. I think the declines in the markets (both the stock market and real estate market) now provide good investment opportunities. Of course I could be wrong but I am willing to make investments based on this believe. And I believe there are plenty of place real estate prices may still be too high, but I believe there are also good buys.

    A third reason worth considering is the damage done to the economy over the last 10 years and the costs of dealing with that today. Those costs are going to have long term impacts. Likely the economy will be stressed paying for the over-indulgences of the past for quite a long time. That means the risks to those in that economy will increase. And therefore having larger reserves is a wise course of action to survive the rough times ahead. Those rough times include a substantial risk of inflation. Investing to protect against that risk is important.

    I would recommend starting with at least a 200 basis point increase in retirement contributions. For example, if you were saving 10% for retirement, increase that to 12%. If you have not added to your IRA for 2008, do so now (you have until April 15th to do so). In fact, if you haven’t added to your IRA for 2009, do so now.

    Related: How Much Will I Need to Save for Retirement? – Nearly half of all workers have less than $25,000 in retirement savings – Investing – What I am Doing Now

  • How Much Will I Need to Save for Retirement?

    Retirement Myths and Realities provides some ideas from former Boeing President, Henry Hebeler:

    Hebeler says all Americans should become self-educated about retirement issues, even if they have a financial planner.
    …
    My father used to tell me to save 10 percent of my wages all the time for retirement. And so I did. I never looked at any retirement plan; we didn’t have retirement planning tools in those days.
    …
    I think the number is closer to 15 (percent) to 20 percent — that’s from the time when you’re a relatively young person, say, 30 years old or something like that.
    …
    A retiree’s inflation rate is about 0.2 percent higher than the normal Consumer Price Index. When you retire, you have medical expenses that continually increase. You have more need for this service and the unit cost is increasing much faster than inflation.
    …
    Now, if you’re going to retire at 80 years old, you could actually have a bigger number than 4 percent. If you’re going to retire around 65 or so, 4 percent is not a bad number. Some people are now saying 3.5 percent instead of 4 percent. If you’re going to retire at 55, you’d better spend a lot less than 4 percent because you’ve got another 10 years of life that you’re going to have to support.

    He makes some interesting points. I agree it is very important for people to become financially literate and take the time to understand their retirement plans. Just hoping it will work out or trusting that just doing what someone told you are very bad ideas. You need to educate yourself and learn about financing your retirement.

    I am not really convinced by his idea that you need to start saving 15-20% for retirement at age 30. But that is a decision each person has to make for themselves. Of course there are many factors including how much risk you are willing to accept, when you plan on retiring, what standard of living you want in retirement…

    Related: How Much Retirement Income? – posts on retirement – Saving for Retirement – Our Only Hope: Retiring Later

  • Investing – What I am Doing Now

    The economy (in the USA and worldwide) continues to struggle and the prospects for 2009 do not look good. My guess is that the economy in 2009 will be poor. If we are lucky, we will be improving in the fall of 2009, but that may not happen. But what does that mean for how to invest now?

    I would guess that the stock market (in the USA) will be lower 12 months from now. But I am far from certain, of that guess. I have been buying some stocks over the last few months. I just increased my contributions to my 401(k) by about 50% (funded by a portion of my raise). I changed the distribution of my future contributions in my 401(k) (I left the existing investments as they were).

    My contributions are now going to 100% stock investments (if I were close to retirement I would not do this). I had been investing 25% in real estate. I also moved into a bit more international stocks from just USA stocks. I would be perfectly fine continuing to the 25% in real estate, my reason for switching was more that I wanted to buy more stocks (not that I want to avoid the real estate). The real estate funds have declined less than 3% this year. I wouldn’t be surprised for it to fall more next year but my real reason for shifting contributions to stocks is I really like the long term prospects at the current level of the stock market (both globally and in the USA). The short term I am much less optimistic about – obviously.

    I will also fully fund my Roth IRA for 2009, in January. I plan to buy a bit more Amazon (AMZN) and Templeton Emerging Market Fund (EMF). And will likely buy a bit of Danaher (DHR) or PetroChina (PTR) with the remaining cash.

    Related: 401(k)s are a Great Way to Save for Retirement – Lazy Portfolio Results – Starting Retirement Account Allocations for Someone Under 40

  • Financial Planning Made Easy

    Scott Adams does a great job with Dilbert and he presents a simple, sound financial strategy in Dilbert and the Way of the Weasel, page 172, Everything you need to know about financial planning:

    • Make a will.
    • Pay off your credit cards.
    • Get term life insurance if you have a family to support.
    • Fund your 401(k) to the maximum.
    • Fund your IRA to the maximum.
    • Buy a house if you want to live in a house and you can afford it.
    • Put six months’ expenses in a money market fund. [this was wise, given the currently very low money market rates I would use “high yield” bank savings account now, FDIC insured – John]
    • Take whatever money is left over and invest 70% in a stock index fund and 30% in a bond fund through any discount broker, and never touch it until retirement.
    • If any of this confuses you or you have something special going on (retirement, college planning, tax issues) hire a fee-based financial planner, not one who charges a percentage of your portfolio.

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  • Companies Beg Congress to Allow Them to Avoid Paying Into Pension Funds

    Pension Funds Beg Congress to Suspend Billions in Contributions

    Pension funds at Pfizer Inc., International Business Machines Corp., United Parcel Service Inc. and dozens of other companies have joined the parade of businesses seeking relief from Congress amid this year’s economic meltdown.

    Instead of money, they want legislation to suspend a federal law that would make them pump billions of dollars into retirement plans to offset stock-market losses as many struggle to find enough cash just to stay in business.

    So lets see, you minimally fund the pension plan for your workers and make optimistic projections about investing returns. The market goes down, and you are now so far underfunding your pension that the law requires you to add funds to the pension. Your solution, go cry to the politicians. How sad. If Pfizer or IBM are having cash flow problems that is amazing. They really should be able to manage their cash better than that. Their most recent quarterly reports do not indicate cash flow problems. Yes I understand we have a credit crisis so if GM were having problems I wouldn’t be surprised (but you know what – they aren’t, in this area).

    “Without relief, plan sponsors must shoulder the immediate burden of sudden, unexpected, large increases in plan contributions at a time when cash may be difficult to generate internally or to obtain in the credit markets,” Mercer’s Hartshorn says.
    …
    GM was notably absent from the five-page list of companies and organizations asking Congress for relief from the asset thresholds. GM said its pension plans had a $1.8 billion deficit as of Oct. 31, down from a $20 billion surplus 10 months earlier. At that level, GM’s plans would top the pension law’s 2008 asset threshold.

    I think companies need to meet their obligations. If they choose to minimally fund their pensions without understanding that financial market are volatile, then they will have to pay up as required by law. When times are good you see all these CEOs taking advantage of pension fund “excesses” to reward themselves. They need to learn that you don’t raid your pension funds (either by taking cash out or not funding current investments – because you claim the assets are already sufficient). Pension funds are long term investments and you cannot manage as though the target value is the minimum amount allowed by law (unless you are willing to pay up cash every time your investments don’t meet your predicted returns). This is very simple stuff.

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  • Feds Rethink Rules on Retirement Savings – They Shouldn’t

    Feds Rethink Rules on Retirement Savings

    Amid growing concern over the stock market’s severe drop, government officials are considering last-minute relief from rules requiring millions of Americans who are 70½ or older to withdraw money from their retirement accounts.

    Among the possible changes: allowing taxpayers to delay taking required withdrawals from their individual retirement accounts, 401(k) plans and other similar accounts this year — or at least reducing the amount that must be withdrawn. Also under consideration are various ways to provide tax relief for people who already have made their required withdrawals for this year.

    This is silly. Everyone in the situation of having to make a withdrawal has know about the requirement for years. My guess is this has been the law for over 20 years. Yes, the stock market is down. Yes, being forced to sell now would be bad. And how does providing “tax relief” to those who already made required withdrawals make any sense? Why not just have the treasury send checks to every American, who had a loss on an investment this year, equal to the amount of their loss? (By the way this is sarcasm – they should not really do that). These people have lost any sense of what investing, planning, responsibly… are.

    First, knowing you have required withdrawals from your IRA, you should not hold those assets in stock (I suppose you could have significant cash assets outside your IRA and chose to just use the next option). Second, you can buy the stock outside your IRA at the same minute you sell them in the IRA. What is the big deal: the cost should be about $20 in stock commission for each stock – you save that much each time you fill up your gas tank lately (compared to prices this summer). All that not having to withdraw funds does is let those wealthy enough not to need a small amount of their IRA or 401(k) savings by the time they are 70 1/2 to keep deferring taxes on their investment gains.

    The amount of the distribution is based on the market value of the taxpayer’s account as of the last day of the previous year.

    Therein lies one of the major problems. This year’s distributions are based on Dec. 31, 2007, levels — a time when market prices generally were far above today’s deeply depressed values. As a result, “millions of Americans are forced to withdraw larger-than-anticipated amounts from already-depleted retirement funds,” says David Certner, legislative policy director at AARP, an advocacy group that represents nearly 40 million older Americans.

    What kind of 1984 newspeak is this? I mean this is absolutely ridicules. You have to withdraw the exact amount you knew on January 1st 2008. Nothing about that has changed in almost a year. How can the Wall Street Journal report this without pointing out the completely false claim.
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  • Personal Finance Basics: Long-term Care Insurance

    Long term care insurance is an important part of a personal financial portfolio. It provides insurance for for expenses beyond medical and nursing care for chronic illnesses (assisted living expenses). So while looking at your personal finance insurance needs (health insurance, disability insurance, automobile insurance, homeowners [or rental] insurance [with personal liability insurance – or separate personal liability insurance] and life insurance don’t forget to consider long term care insurance.

    Can You Afford Long-Term-Care Insurance?

    Long-term care is likely to be most Americans’ greatest expense of all in retirement. A private room in a nursing home costs $76,460 annually on average, or $209 a day, and Medicare typically won’t cover it.
    …
    AARP estimates that a 65-year-old in good health can expect to pay between $2,000 and $3,000 a year for a policy that covers nursing-home and home care.

    “About 70 percent of individuals over age 65 will require at least some type of long-term care services during their lifetime. Over 40 percent will need care in a nursing home for some period of time.” – National Clearinghouse for Long-Term Care Information

    Advice on buying long term care insurance from AARP, the Department of Health and Human Services and Consumer Reports.
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