Investing Curiouscatblog

Tag: data

  • Jumbo v. Regular Fixed Mortgage Rates: by Credit Score

    Example 30 year mortgage rates (from myfico.com – see site for current rate estimates). Previous posts on this topic: Feb 2008 – August 2007 – May 2007. Since the last post both jumbo and conforming mortgages rates are up (and are up most for high credit scores).

    FICO score APR Aug 2008 APR Aug 2008 – jumbo APR Feb 2008 APR Feb 2008 – jumbo APR Aug 2007 APR May 2007
    760-850 6.12% 7.00% 5.53% 6.61% 6.27% 5.86%
    700-759 6.34% 7.22% 5.75% 6.83% 6.49% 6.08%
    660-699 6.62% 7.50% 6.04% 7.12% 6.77% 6.37%
    620-659 7.43% 8.31% 6.85% 7.93% 7.58% 7.18%
    580-619 9.45% 9.63% 9.22% 9.40% 9.32% 8.82%
    500-579 10.31% 10.49% 10.20% 10.37% 10.31% 9.68%

    For scores above 620, the APRs above assume a mortgage with 1.0 points and 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio. For scores below 620, these APRs assume a mortgage with 0 points and 60 to 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio.

    Since February the premium for jumbo loans has decreased to 88 basis points (from 108) for all credit scores above 620 (the combination of higher down payment and higher regular interest rates below 620 result in very little premium from Jumbo loans, under 20 basis points.

    Related: 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate Data – Learning About Mortgages – How Much Worse Can the Mortgage Crisis Get? – Real Free Credit Report (in USA)

  • Oil Consumption by Country

    The largest oil consuming countries (and EU), in millions of barrels per day:

    Country consumption % of oil used % of population % of World GDP
    USA 20.8 25.9 4.5 21.0
    European Union 14.6 18.1 7.4 21.9
    China 6.9 8.6 19.9 10.7
    Japan 5.4 6.7 1.9 6.5
    Russia 2.9 3.6 2.1 3.2
    Germany 2.6 3.3 1.2 4.3
    India 2.4 3.0 17.0 4.6
    Canada 2.3 2.9 0.5 1.9
    Korea 2.1 2.7 0.7 1.8
    Brazil 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.8
    Mexico 2.1 2.6 1.6 2.1

    All data is from CIA World Factbook 2008 (downloaded Jun 2008). GDP calculated using purchasing power parity.

    Related: Top 10 Manufacturing Countries 2006 – Country H-index Rank for Science Publications – Best Research University Rankings (2007)

  • Corporate and Government Bond Yields

    graph of 10 year bond rates

    Over the last 2 months the yields on bonds have increased the discount rate has continued to decline.

    The spread between corporate bond yields and government bonds has decreased a bit as treasury yields have increased 37 basis points compared to just 4 and 6 basis point increased in corporate bond yields.

    Data from the federal reserve – corporate Aaa – corporate Baa – ten year treasury – fed funds

    Related: Bond Yields 2005-2008 – 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates versus the Fed Funds Rate – Initial Retirement Account Allocations

  • 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update – June 2008

    I originally setup the 10 stocks for 10 years portfolio in April of 2005.

    At this time the stocks in the sleep well portfolio in order of returns:

    Stock Current Return % of sleep well portfolio now % of the portfolio if I were buying today
    Google – GOOG 163% 17% 14%
    Amazon – AMZN 124% 7% 7%
    PetroChina – PTR 114% 7% 7%
    Templeton Dragon Fund – TDF 90% 10% 10%
    Templeton Emerging Market Fund – EMF 47% 4% 4%
    Cisco – CSCO 42% 7% 8%
    Toyota – TM 38% 10% 11%
    Tesco – TSCDY 9% 0% 10%
    Intel – INTC 3% 5% 6%
    Danaher – DHR 1% 5% 8%
    Pfizer – PFE -29% 4% 6%
    Dell -30% 7% 6%

    At this point I am most positive on Google, Toyota, Templeton Dragon Fund and Tesco. I am wary of Dell – they seem to be moving in the wrong direction, but I am willing to give them longer to improve. I am even more wary of Prizer but again willing to stick with them for the long term. I will be looking for a suitable replacement.

    In order to track performance I setup a marketocracy portfolio but had to make some minor adjustments. The current marketocracy calculated annualized rate or return (which excludes Tesco) is 9.8% (the S&P 500 annualized return for the period is 7.9%) – marketocracy subtracts the equivalent of 2% of assets annually to simulate management fees – as though the portfolio were a mutual fund – so without that the return is about 10.8%). View the current marketocracy Sleep Well portfolio page.

    Related: 12 Stocks for 10 Years Update (Feb 2008) – Retirement Account Allocations for Someone Under 40 – Lazy Portfolio Results

  • Economist Challenges Government Data

    Economist challenges government data

    By Williams’ estimation, the government’s calculation that unemployment was 5 percent in April and that inflation was 4 percent and economic growth 2 percent over the last year, is fantasy. It might even be disinformation.

    An update e-mailed to ShadowStats subscribers at the beginning of the month warned darkly that “GDP (gross domestic product) and Jobs Data Appear Rigged” and “Despite Manipulated Data, the Recession Deepens.”

    By his reckoning, the economy shrank 2.5 percent in the year that ended in March, unemployment is really 13 percent and year-over-year inflation is 7.5 percent.

    If I was to believe one of those I would pick 7.5% inflation (or at least something a bit closer to that than to and the government figure). If I had to pick one I think is way off, I would pick the unemployment rate. One thing people need to remember is that numbers can be questioned. Often people see a number and just believe it must be true because it is a number (they usually don’t consciously think this but do so sub-consciously). I am losing confidence in the inflation figures quoted by the government (they just seem to far from what seems to be happening). The GDP is never exact, so being off by a couple percent depending on what assumptions you make is not impossible to understand (yet the news media, politicians, business press… act as though the figure is exactly accurate).

    John Williams’ web site, Shadow Government Statistics, has the feel of someone that is a gadfly. And I don’t accept his statements, but I believe the government figures are indeed deserving of more scrutiny. It makes perfect sense for inflation to more accurately take into account the substitution effects people can make but that also allows the figures to be more influenced by judgments of what is a fair substitution (and also what is increased quality worth…). And those questions on inflation can directly effect whether the economy (GDP) grew by 1% of shrunk by 2%.

    Related: What Do Unemployment Statistics Really Mean? – the Proxy Nature of Data – Washington’s Funny Accounting

  • Bond Yields: 2005-2008

    graph of 10 year bond rates

    From January 2005 to July 2007 the Federal Funds Rate was steadily increased. The rate was held for a year. Since then the rate has been decreasing (dramatically, recently). As you can see from the chart, 10 year bond yields have been much less variable. The chart also shows 10 year corporate bond yields increasing in February when the federal funds rate fell 100 basis points.

    Is the worst over, or just beginning?

    The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury currently stands at about 3.33%, down from nearly 4% about a month ago.
    …
    If rates continue to fall, they could hit not only a new low for the year – the 10-year briefly touched 3.28% in January – but could come close to falling below the 3.07% level they hit in June 2003, which was a 45-year low at the time.

    Treasury bond yields are down but a huge part of the reason is a “flight to quality,” where investors are reluctant to hold other bonds (so they buy treasuries when they sell those bonds). Therefore other bond yields (and mortgage rates) are not decreasing (the data in the chart is a bit old – the yields may well decrease some for both 10 year bonds once the March data is posted, though I would expect the spread between treasuries be larger than it was in January).

    Data from the federal reserve – corporate Aaa – corporate Baa – ten year treasury – fed funds

    Related: 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates versus the Fed Funds Rate – After Tax Return on Municipal Bonds

  • Top 10 Manufacturing Countries 2006

    Here is updated data from the UN on manufacturing output by country. China continues to grow amazingly moving into second place for 2006. UN Data, in billions of current US dollars:

    Country 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006
    USA 1,040 1,543 1,545 1,629 1,725
    China 143 484 788 939 1096
    Japan 808 1,033 962 954 929
    Germany 437 392 559 584 620
    Italy 240 206 295 291 313
    United Kingdom 207 230 283 283 308
    France 223 190 256 253 275
    Brazil 117 120 130 172 231
    Korea 65 134 173 199 216
    Canada 92 129 165 188 213
    Additional countries of interest – not the next largest
    Mexico 50 107 111 122 136
    India 50 67 100 118 130
    Indonesia 29 46 72 79 103
    Turkey 33 38 75 92 100

    (more…)

  • Manufacturing Data – Accuracy Questions

    re: Myths of Manufacturing Productivity

    Output counted should only measure the value added – it should not count the entire value (not the same thing exactly but similar – when a HDTV is sold by the plant to a wholesaler and then the wholesaler sells it to a retailer and then the retailer sells it to a customer the economic data does not add those 3 purchases together to get the total value of HDTV sales). The measures are suppose to be the amount added at the point of measure. So the output of the local plant does not count the total value of say the car but the value added at the plant. Obviously, like with most economic measures, this data has plenty of room for error.

    While they intend to measure the added value as far, this is not easy and there can be reasons to distort the data (taxes, bonuses…). The VAT, used in Europe, is helpful illustration (both of the concepts and some of the measurement difficulties).

    I keep looking for better data (I am actually surprised how sparse the data is given the importance). I would not want to make economic policy with the very incomplete data I have been able to find. Still, my belief is real global manufacturing output is up. And global manufacturing jobs are down. If those statements are right, productivity increase is the only reason – by definition.

    When trying to look at country specific measures it does get more difficult – to find data that is obviously clear. Still, based on the data I have been able to find it seems that the USA continues to increase manufacturing output and decrease jobs. This seems right to me though I do agree the data I have seen still leaves questions. Previous posts I have made on the topic include: Manufacturing Value Added Economic Data – Manufacturing Jobs Data USA, China and globally, even manufacturing jobs data can include data quality issues but it is probably cleaner than most of the rest of this data. The data from this Clemson study shows the USA has lost a lower percentage of jobs than most every other country – Global Manufacturing Data by Country

    Global data sources certainly still has data quality issues but you can be reasonably certain huge double counting is not going on. If so you would see the global totals increasing hugely. If a GM car was manufactured with 50% Mexican parts and the GM counted 100% of the value and Mexico counted there value then you would have 150% of the total value counted. Which would then mean the global figures would be counted not just increased output but also going up as the countries “over-counted” their output. And remember, in this example Mexican output could include (40% of their 50%) from Brazil…