Investing Curiouscatblog

Tag: Investing

  • Avoiding Hedge Fund Investments is One of the Benefits of Being in the 99%

    Hedge funds sell themselves as investments for elites and justify their extraordinary expenses mainly by appealing to elites egos. Well, hedge funds by and large do poorly. This is largely due to huge expenses. Add to that the incentives managers have to take huge risks: the managers often get 20% of extraordinary gains and if they lose, well you lose your money. These incentives to take huge risks do mean a few hedge funds do spectacularly well each year (of course more usually do spectacularly poorly over time).

    Warren Buffett knew this and wagered a long term investment in a low cost Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund would beat a hedge fund over the long term.

    Buffett Seizes Lead in Bet on Stocks Beating Hedge Funds

    The wager that began on Jan. 1, 2008, pits the Omaha, Nebraska, billionaire against Protégé Partners LLC, a New York fund of hedge funds co-founded by Ted Seides and Jeffrey Tarrant. Protégé built an index of five funds that invest in hedge funds to compete against a Vanguard mutual fund that tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The winner’s charity of choice gets $1 million when the bet ends on Dec. 31, 2017.
    …
    Buffett’s argument, like the large pension funds, is that funds of hedge funds cost too much, according to a statement he posted on longbets.org, a website backed by the nonprofit Long Now Foundation that fosters “long-term thinking.” In addition to the 2 percent management fee and 20 percent performance fee that hedge funds typically charge, the funds of funds add another layer of fees, on average 1.25 percent of assets and 7.5 percent of any gains, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    There may be many nice things about being in the 1% of the USA (being in 1% of the World is something more people in the USA should realize they are – more than 50% of the USA is in the 1% of everyone) but investing in hedge funds is mainly fools helping make a few more of the 1% by paying huge fees for lousy investments. Yes a few hedge funds will manage to do well. As would a few monkey’s throwing darts at a page of investments each quarter. The odds of picking a hedge fund for a long period of time that does so well the huge fees are justified are not great. Missing out on this investment option is not one you should feel sad about.

    Related: Is the Stock Market Efficient? – Investment Risk Matters Most as Part of a Portfolio, Rather than in Isolation – 12 Stocks for 10 Years: January 2012 Update

  • Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival #27

    Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival. The carnival is published twice each month. This carnival is different than others in two significant ways. First, I select posts from the blogs I read (instead of just posting those that submit to the carnival). I think this provides readers a better selection of valuable material (many of the best blogs don’t take time to submit to carnivals). And second, I include articles when I think they are interesting. If you are interested in hosting the carnival, add a comment including a link to your blog.

    • Savers, who did nothing to create the financial crisis, are being punished – “Our policy makers do need to think about what we are transferring to the banks,” Mr. Todd said. “Why is the public obligated to provide them with all those subsidies? Nobody will ask these questions.” [I agree, the large financial institutions are most responsible for the credit crisis and what they get is welfare paid for by others and they don’t even admit to their welfare status, pretending that the large financial institutions are not getting billions of dollars in direct and indirect aid from the rest of us]
    • You’d Be A Fool To Hold Anything But Cash Now, interview with David Stockman – “Q: You sound as if we’re facing a financial crisis like the one that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
      A: Oh, far worse than Lehman. When the real margin call in the great beyond arrives, the carnage will be unimaginable.”
    • The end of cheap China – “Labour costs have surged by 20% a year for the past four years… Labour costs are often 30% lower in countries other than China, says John Rice, GE’s vice chairman, but this is typically more than offset by other problems, especially the lack of a reliable supply chain.”
    • Killing the competition: How the new monopolies are destroying open markets by Barry Lynn – “the basic characteristics shared by all real markets. Most important is an equality between the seller and the buyer, achieved by ensuring that there are many buyers as well as many sellers.” [this is fundamental to how capitalism provides benefits to the society. As markets are made less free (think of any market with very few buyer or sellers – that is lots of them today) the risks increase that society will lose to those few players who can extract monopolistic rents from the broken markets. The concept that free markets result in benefit to society through competition require real markets and competition, just using the word capitalism doesn’t bring the benefits, the system must have capitalistic traits – John]
    • What Portion Of Your Portfolio Should You Invest In Bonds? – “The universal rule is quite simple. If you own 100% of your portfolio in stocks and bonds you would invest so that: Bond proportion = your age %; Stock proportion = 100% – bond proportion” [I have a long comment on the post, I disagree with this specific advice today, the concept is sound, but bonds are not the right investment to balance the portfolio – John]
    • Adam Smith versus Business by Sheldon Richman – “Smith knew the difference between being sympathetic to the competitive economy – which he called the ‘system of natural liberty’ — and being sympathetic to owners of capital (who might well have acquired it by less-than-kosher means, that is, through political privilege). He knew something about business lobbies.”
    • USA Consumer and Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rates from 2001 to 2011 by John Hunter – “Residential real estate delinquency rates fell just 25 basis points (to a still extremely large 9.86%). Commercial real estate delinquency rates fell an impressive 186 basis points (to a still high 6.12%). Credit card delinquency rates fell 86 basis points to a 17 year low, 3.27%.”

  • 60% of Workers in the USA Have Less Than $25,000 in Retirement Savings

    2012 Retirement Confidence Survey

    (60 percent) report they and/or their spouses have less than $25,000 in total savings and investments (excluding their home and defined benefit plans), including 30 percent who have less than $1,000

    The data would be better if some value were placed on defined benefit plans; currently it is a bit confusing how much they may help. But the $25,000 threshold is so low that no matter what being under that value is extremely bad news for anyone over 40. And failing to have saved over just $25,000 toward retirement is bad news for anyone over 30 without a defined benefit plan.

    The large majority of workers who have not saved for retirement have little in savings. Almost two-thirds (63 percent) report they have less than $1,000 in savings and investments, and another quarter (25 percent) have $1,000–$9,999.

    Thirty-four percent of workers report they had to dip into savings to pay for basic expenses in the past 12 months.
    …
    Thirty-five percent of all workers think they need to accumulate at least $500,000 by the time they retire to live comfortably in retirement. Eighteen percent feel they need between $250,000 and $499,999, while 34 percent think they need to save less than $250,000 for a comfortable retirement.

    Workers who have performed a retirement needs calculation are more than twice as likely as those who have not (23 percent vs. 10 percent) to expect they will need to accumulate at least $1 million before retiring.

    66% of workers say their family has retirement savings and 58% say they are currently saving for retirement. These results are fairly consistent over the last few decades (the current values are in the lower ranges of results).

    Nearly everyone wishes they had more money. One way to act as though you have more than you do is to borrow and spend (which is normally unwise – it can make sense for a house and in limited amounts when you are first going out on your own). Another is to ignore long term needs and just live it up today. That is a very bad personal finance strategy but one many people follow. Saving for retirement is a personal finance requirement. If you can’t save for retirement given your current income and lifestyle you need to reduce your current spending to save or increase your income and then save for retirement.

    A year or two of failing to do so is acceptable. Longer stretches add more and more risk to your personal financial situation. It may not be fun to accept the responsibilities of adulthood and plan for the long term. But failing to do so is a big mistake. Determining the perfect amount to save for retirement is complicated. A reasonable retirement saving plan is not.

    Saving 10% of your gross income from the time you are 25 until 65 gives you a decent ballpark estimate. Then you can adjust even 5 or 10 years as you can look at your situation. It will likely take over 10% to put you in a lifestyle similar to the one you enjoy while working. But many factors are at play. To be safer saving at 12% could be wise. If you know you want to work less than 40 years saving more could be wise. If you have a defined benefit plan (rare now, but, for example police or fire personnel often still do you can save less but you must work until you gain those benefits or you will be in extremely bad shape.

    IRAs, 401(k) and 403(b) plans are a great way to save for retirement (giving you tax deferral and Roth versions of those plans are even better – assuming tax rates rise).

    Related: In the USA 43% Have Less Than $10,000 in Retirement Savings – Saving for Retirement

  • Solar Power Market Solutions For Hundreds of Millions Without Electricity

    400 million people in India and 1.2 billion people worldwide do not have electric power at home. Mera Gao Power provides a wonderful market solution. Mera Gao Power can install solar power systems at a low cost that can be paid back in just 2 years by charging only 50 cents a month to users (for 7 hours of electricity a day). So they provide funding (through investors and grants) and recoup the investment quickly by providing a valuable service at a price users can afford.

    Four solar panels are sufficient to power an entire village of 100 households with quality light and mobile charging. These panels are installed on the roofs of existing households, thus eliminating the need for land. Since power is generated during the day and used at night they use batteries to store the power.

    By utilizing LED lights, MGP’s micro grid design is ultra energy efficient. This is the key to reducing power generation and storage equipment. Each household is provided with two or four LED lights.

    Mera Gao Power received funding from USAID Development Innovation Ventures. The video presents their innovation for a village-level solar micro grid to electrify rural Uttar Pradesh for a White House meeting.

    Related: Appropriate Technology: Solar Water Heaters in Poor Cairo Neighborhoods – Top Countries For Renewable Energy Capacity – Water Pump Merry-go-Round – Letting Children Learn, Hole in the Wall Computers – Homemade Windmills for Electricity – Water and Electricity for All

  • Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival #26

    Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival: find useful recent personal finance, investing and economics blog posts and articles. The carnival is published twice each month. This carnival is different than others in two significant ways. First, I select posts from the blogs I read (instead of just posting those that submit to the carnival). I think this provides readers a better selection of valuable material (many of the best blogs don’t take time to submit to carnivals). And second, I include articles when I think they are interesting. I figure the primary purpose is to provide links to good recent content, so just because something isn’t a blog post doesn’t exclude it from inclusion.

    • What would happen if Greece defaulted and left the euro? by Jim Jubak – “I think it’s much too late to head off an eventual Greek default sometime, in my opinion, in 2012. But it still does make a huge difference how that default happens. Right now it looks like Greece is headed toward the kind of disorderly default—if not in March then in June or so–that results in the country leaving the euro and produces all the long-term damage I’ve described above…
    • My Top 6 Financial Commandments by Ryan Yates – “Don’t overlook saving for retirement. Remember, there’s no amount too little to save. Everything helps. Setting up an IRA or making the maximum contributions to your 401k are essential to keeping your future financial status secure.”
    • Euro is not to blame for crisis, interview with Jim Rodgers – “You can debase currency, and history is replete with governments that have debased their own currency and ruined their own currency for hundreds of – well for thousands of years it has been going on. You can do that and everything is okay for a while, but eventually you have inflation, you have high interest rates, you have currency turmoil, you have people no longer trusting each other to invest with each other, and then you have the end of the system, and we have chaos, and it starts over again.”
    • Apple’s Stock May Not Be as Cheap as It Looks by Jonathan Weil – “Using the fiscal 2009 earnings that Apple initially reported, its price-earnings ratio that day was about 33. Using its restated numbers, the ratio would have been about 23. My guess is a similar effect is occurring today: Had it not been for the rule change, Apple’s P/E ratio would be higher, because the ‘E’ would be lower.”
    • Why Dropbox Is A Major Disruption by Bill Gurley – “Once you begin using Dropbox, you become more and more indifferent to the hardware you are using, as well as the operating system on that device. Dropbox commoditizes your devices and their OS, by being your “state” system in the sky. Storing credentials and configurations of devices, and even applications are natural next steps for this company.” [I’ll admit I still don’t understand why Dropbox is worth so much, it seems useful but doesn’t seem to have much a “moat” (in Warren Buffett’s meaning) – John]
    Empire State Building, New York City
    Empire State Building, New York City by John Hunter

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  • Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival #24

    The Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival is published twice each month. We find useful recent personal finance, investing and economics blog posts and articles to share with you.

    • 2 Billionaire Brothers’ Insider Buying At Colfax by Zack Miller – “[In] the Danaher Business System… management believes its found a demonstrable, repeatable recipe for success, and it drives both culture and process at the company and its acquisitions. DBS is a form of Japanese kaizen, comprising 4 components: 1) People 2) Plans 3) Processes 4) Performance” [I own Danaher and have it in my 12 stocks for 10 year portfolio – John, my management blog focuses on such management systems]
    • Apple’s Impossibly Good Quarter by John Hunter – “You can’t grow quarterly sales from $26.7 billion to $46.3 billion. $26 million to $46 million, fine that is possible, billions however – not possible. Except Apple did. You can’t grow a $6 billion quarterly profit to $13 billion in 1 year. Except Apple did. You can’t generate a cash flow of $17.5 billion in a quarter. Except Apple did. You can’t have a stockpile of $100 billion in cash. Except Apple does. These figures would not have been seen as unlikely just 3 years ago. They were impossible. But Apple achieved them.”
    • How to Save the Euro by George Soros – “the cuts in government expenditures that Germany wants to impose on other countries will push Europe into a deflationary debt trap. Reducing budget deficits will put both wages and profits under downward pressure, the economies will contract, and tax revenues will fall. So the debt burden, which is a ratio of the accumulated debt to the GDP, will actually rise, requiring further budget cuts, setting in motion a vicious circle.”
    • Japan’s Trade Figures: Some Perspective by Eamonn Fingleton – “In a typical maneuver, goods might be shipped to China via Hong Kong. The goods are exported from Japan at heavily discounted prices and a Hong Kong subsidiary takes a huge profit in selling to China. Such profits constitute hidden export revenues that are not caught in the visible trade numbers. The maneuver makes sense because Japan’s corporate tax rate is one of the world’s highest.” [This is one, of many things, that make economic data difficult to rely on – you have to pay close attention to the details – John]

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  • Apple’s Impossibly Good Quarter

    Apple has been performing amazingly well for years. They keep producing blockbuster hits over and over. Not only are these hits enormously popular they are enormously profitable.

    The only real objections to Apple’s stock I can see are: the overall market value is so huge it just has to collapse (over $400 billion – the largest in the world) or it has to be time for a huge reversal of fortunes.

    The problem with the view that it will fall is that the stock is very cheap by any rational measure. You are not paying much for all the earnings. Even if Apple does not continue the trend of the last 5 years, if it just stopped growing altogether, it is still cheap (if it does continue that trend it will break $1 trillion by 2014 – but I don’t think it will). The biggest risk is the profit margin shrinks drastically. That is possible. It is even somewhat likely to shrink a fair amount. But there isn’t much reason to think revenues will not grow. And to me, the current price makes sense only if revenues fall and profit margins fall. It takes the worst case scenario to make this stock seem overpriced.

    The data on the last quarter (and for 2011 overall) are impossible (except they actually happened).

    • record quarterly revenue of $46.33 billion ($26.74 billion in 2010)
    • record quarterly net profit of $13.06 billion ($6 billion in 2010)
    • Gross margin was 44.7 percent compared to 38.5 percent in the year-ago quarter
    • $17.5 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter (and $38 billion in the last year)
    • $100 billion in cash now ($97.6 billion to be exact but since the data was gathered they probably passed $100 billion anyway). That is more than the market cap of all but 52 companies in the world.

    You can’t grow quarterly sales from $26.7 billion to $46.3 billion. $26 million to $46 million, fine that is possible, billions however – not possible. Except Apple did. You can’t grow a $6 billion quarterly profit to $13 billion in 1 year. Except Apple did. You can’t generate a cash flow of $17.5 billion in a quarter. Except Apple did. You can’t have a stockpile of $100 billion in cash. Except Apple does. These figures would not have been seen as unlikely just 3 years ago. They were impossible. But Apple achieved them.

    These figures are not short term blips. They are the latest in a long stream of amazingly results.

    Related: How Apple Can Grow from $200 Billion to $300 Billion In Market Cap – Apple Tops Google (August 2008)

    Apple has numerous, incredibly strong businesses. Each could be the linchpin of an extremely valuable company.

    • iPhone initial sales and reoccurring income (over 50% of Apple’s revenue)
    • app sales (for iPhones, iPads and Macs)
    • iPads
    • iTunes
    • Macs
    • Their retail store business – selling all their products

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  • 12 Stocks for 10 Years: January 2012 Update

    The 12 stock for 10 years portfolio consists of stocks I would be comfortable putting into an IRA for 10 years. The main criteria is for companies with a history of large positive cash flow, that seemed likely to continue that trend. I am considering adding Abbot to the portfolio, and maybe dropping Cisco.

    Since April of 2005 the portfolio Marketocracy* calculated annualized rate or return (which excludes Tesco) is 5.7% (the S&P 500 annualized return for the period is 3.9%). Marketocracy subtracts the equivalent of 2% of assets annually to simulate management fees – as though the portfolio were a mutual fund – so without that (it is not like this portfolio takes much management), the return beats the S&P 500 annual return by about 380 basis points annually (it would be a bit less with Tesco, but still close above 3%, I would think – calculating rates of return with purchases and sales and dividends is a complete pain, which is one reason Marketocracy is so nice).

    The current stocks, in order of return:

    Stock Current Return % of sleep well portfolio now % of the portfolio if I were buying today
    Amazon – AMZN 350% 9% 7%
    Google – GOOG 187% 17% 14%
    PetroChina – PTR 115% 8% 6%
    Templeton Dragon Fund – TDF 85% 8% 7%
    Templeton Emerging Market Fund – EMF 44% 5% 7%
    Danaher – DHR 43% 10% 10%
    Apple – AAPL 42% 9% 9%
    Intel – INTC 18% 6% 6%
    Cash (likely to be ABT soon) – 4% 6%
    Cisco – CSCO -2% 5% 4%
    Toyota – TM -8% 8% 12%
    Pfizer – PFE -9% 6% 7%
    Tesco – TSCDY -13%** 0%* 5%

    The current marketocracy results can be seen on the Sleep Well marketocracy portfolio page.

    Related: 12 Stocks for 10 Years: Feb 2011 Update – 12 Stocks for 10 Years, July 2011 Update – 12 Stocks for 10 Years, July 2009 Update – hand picked articles on investing
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  • Taking a Look at Some Dividend Aristocrats

    See the full list of Dividend Aristocrats below. The stocks in this index are companies within the S&P 500 that have increased dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years. After 10 were added and 1 removed, this month, there are now 51 companies included (so just over 10% of all S&P 500 stocks) – and remember many S&P 500 stocks haven’t existed for 25 years, or pay no dividend today, or didn’t 10 or 20 years ago (Google, Apple, Intel, …). It is surprising so many companies have successfully done this.

    I’ll take a look at a few of them here (I looked at the new additions in my previous post: Investing in stocks that have raised dividends consistently).

    Stock Yield
    		div/share 2011 div/share 2000 % increase
    3M (MMM) 2.8% $2.20 $1.16 90%
    Aflac (AFL) 3.2% $1.23 $0.165 645%
    Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 3.5% $1.92 $0.74 159%
    Cincinnati Financial (CINF) 5.3% $1.60 $0.69 132%
    Coca-Cola Co (KO) 2.8% $1.88 $0.68 176%
    Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 2.4% $1.85 $0.88 110%
    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 3.6% $2.25 $0.62 263%
    Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 3.9% $2.80 $1.08 159%
    Medtronic (MDT) 2.8% $0.94 $0.18 417%
    Procter & Gamble (PG) 3.2% $2.06 $.67 207%

    Just looking at this data Aflac sure looks appealing. Having both a high yield and strong growth is an appealing combination. And Warren Buffet agree (he owns quite a bit) which is also reassuring (he also owns a large stake in Coke). Of course strong growth over the last 11 years won’t necessarily repeat (in fact it gets much harder). On the other had some slow growth companies would likely continue slow growth (at best): Exxon Mobil, 3M…

    Really almost all of these stocks are pretty attractive. Medtronic, Johnson & Johnson and Abbot Laboratories look particularly appealing to me (along with Aflac and Kimberly-Clark). I would have to do more research on any of these (other than Abbot Laboratories, which I already own) before deciding to buy, but they sure look good as safe long term investments. Health care is a growing need (in the USA and globally). It is true the costs in the USA have to be reduced, and this could make things more difficult for companies in the health care industry.

    Related: Sleep well investing portfolio – Looking for Dividend Stocks in the Current Extremely Low Interest Rate Environment – Is the Stock Market Efficient?

    Full list of Dividend Aristocrats, an index measures the performance of large cap, blue chip companies within the S&P 500 that have followed a policy of increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years.

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  • Investing in Stocks That Have Raised Dividends Consistently

    The Dividend Aristocrats index measures the performance of S&P 500 companies “that have followed a policy of increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years.” S&P makes additions and deletions from the index annually. This year 10 companies were added and 1 was deleted.

    Stock Yield
    		div/share 2011 div/share 2000 % increase
    AT&T (T) 6% $1.72 $1.006 72%
    HCP Inc (HCP) 4.9% $1.92 $1.47 31%
    Sysco (SYY) 3.7% $1.04 $0.24 333%
    Nucor (NUE) 3.7% $1.45 $0.15 867%
    Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 3.1% $1.40 $0.38 268%
    Genuine Parts (GPC) 3.1% $1.80 $1.10 64%
    Medtronic (MDT) 2.8% $0.936 $0.181 417%
    Colgate-Palmolive (CL) 2.6% $2.27 $0.632 259%
    T-Rowe Price (TROW) 2.9% $1.24 $0.27 359%
    Franklin Resources (BEN) 1.2% $1.00 $.0245 308%

    You can’t expect members of the Dividend Aristocrats to match the dividend increases shown here. As companies stay in this screen of companies the rate of growth often decreases as they mature. Also some have already increased the payout rate (so have had an increasing payout rate boost dividend increases) significantly.

    The chart also shows that a smaller current yield need not dissuade investing in a company even when your target is dividend yield, giving the large dividend increase in just 10 years. Nucor yielded just 1.5% in 2000 (at a price of $10). Ignoring reinvested dividends your current yield on that investment would be 14.5%. To make the math easy 10 shares in 2000 cost $100, and they paid $1.50 in dividends (%1.5). Dividends have now increase so those 10 shares are paying $14.50 in dividends (14.5%). Of course Nucor worked out very well; that type of return is not common. But the idea to consider is that the long term dividend yield is not only a matter of looking at the current yield.

    The period from 2000 to 2011 was hardly a strong one economically. Yet look at how many of these companies dramatically increased their dividend payouts. Even in tough economic times many companies do well.

    Related: Looking for Dividend Stocks in the Current Extremely Low Interest Rate Environment – Where to Invest for Yield Today – 10 Stocks for Income Investors