Investing Curiouscatblog

Tag: Real Estate

  • Record Home Price Declines

    Since the S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city home price index peaked in June 2006 it has fallen 19.5%. In the year ending July 2008 the decline was 16.3%. That is a record drop. In that year Las Vegas declined 29.9%, Phoenix 29.3% and Miami 28.2%. For the largest cities: New York City declined 7.4%, Los Angeles 26.2%, Chicago 10% and Dallas 2.5% (the second lowest decline – Charlotte declined 1.8%); Houston and Philadelphia, the 4th and 5th largest cities are not included in the 20 city index.

    Only one city shows a decline in housing values since January, 2000: Detroit is down nearly 7%. Washington is up 95% since January, 2000 (even with a 15.8% decline in the last year), Los Angels and New York are tied for second at 93% increases. The 20 city index is up 66% from January 2000 to July 2008.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices for single family homes.

    Source: Record Home Price Declines (pdf)

    Related: Housing Prices Post Record Declines – Home Price Declines Exceeding 10% Seen for 20% of Housing Markets – Fourteen Fold Increase in 31 Years – The Ever Expanding House – Coming Collapse in Housing?

  • Mortgage Costs Rising

    Fannie Mae (the quasi government mortgage giant) is raising fees for mortgages it buys. Banks and mortgage lenders often sell the mortgage to Fannie Mae shortly after completing the loan. Mortgages get more expensive – again

    Fannie increased fees for some loans by a quarter of a percentage point, based on borrowers’ credit scores and the amount of their down payments. It will charge, for example, 1% (up from 0.75%) for a buyer with a credit score of 680 paying 20% down.

    And Fannie doubled its “adverse market delivery charge” to 0.5%. That is an across-the-board fee assessed against every loan Fannie buys, according to a Fannie spokeswoman. Fannie first instituted the charge this spring.
    …
    The added fees will be passed on to borrowers and could mean quarter-point increases in interest rates.
    …
    Fannie will also eliminate buying Alt-A loans by the end of 2008. Alt-A loans, a category between prime and subprime, accounted for about 11% of the company’s loans during the last years of the boom. They have been used mostly by people who couldn’t or wouldn’t document their incomes, their assets or both. These buyers will find it harder to obtain financing once Fannie stops buying the loans.

    According to Yun, however, the cutback in Alt-A will hurt people buying second homes to rent out or resell, rather than first time homeowners. “These are people who often rely on their good credit to buy investment properties putting little or no money down,” he said.

    Related: Mortgage Rates Rising – Fed Funds Rate Changes Don’t Indicate Mortgage Rate Changes – Jumbo and Regular Mortgage Rates By Credit Score – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record

  • 2nd Largest Bank Failure in USA History

    I commented on, WaMu Free Checking: The High 3.3% APY May Be Worth A Look, yesterday:

    I agree it is worth considering. It has FDIC insurance. But the bank is not very stable. The stock price, for example, was above 40 in the last year. It is below 5 now. But as long as your entire deposit is covered by FDIC you are in safe (though if a bank goes under – not that likely – there can be a delay in getting your money). Normally a bank’s assets would be bought out by another bank.

    And today I read of the second largest bank failure in the history of the USA, IndyMac Bank seized by federal regulators:

    The Office of Thrift Supervision in Washington, the chief regulator of IndyMac, said it transferred control of the $32-billion bank to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Branches will be closed over the weekend, but the FDIC will reopen the bank Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, the OTS said.

    Regulators said depositors would have no access to banking services online and by telephone this weekend, but could continue to use ATMs, debit cards and checks. Online banking and phone banking services are to resume operations Monday.

    Federal authorities said based on a preliminary analysis, the takeover of IndyMac would cost the FDIC between $4 billion and $8 billion.

    It is important to make sure your deposits are FDIC insured (in the USA), and to know the limits of the coverage.

    FDIC Failed Bank Information Information for IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA

    Principal and interest on insured accounts, through July 11, 2008, are fully insured by the FDIC, up to the insurance limit of $100,000. You will receive full payment for your insured account. Certain entitlements and different types of accounts can be insured for more than the $100,000 limit. IRA funds are insured separately from other types of accounts, up to a $250,000 limit.

    IndyMac was a huge mortgage focused bank. Their stock price had fallen from a high of nearly $30 in the last year to below $5 in April, $2 in May and $1 in June. It is a very good thing we have the FDIC.

    Related: Credit Crisis (August 2007) – Credit Crisis Continues – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record

  • Foreclosure Filings Continue to Rise

    Foreclosure Filings Continue to Rise

    Foreclosure filings last month were up nearly 50 percent compared with a year earlier, according to one company’s count released yesterday. Nationwide, 261,255 homeowners received at least one foreclosure-related filing in May, up 48 percent from the same month last year, and up 7 percent from April, foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac said.
    …
    last week the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that about 2.47 percent of home mortgages were in foreclosure during the first quarter of the year, almost double the 1.28 percent rate of a year earlier, and the highest point since the group began compiling such figures in 1979. A Credit Suisse report this spring predicted that 6.5 million loans will fall into foreclosure over the next five years, reaching more than 8 percent of all U.S. homes.

    There numbers really are astounding. How lame were the decisions of banks and mortgagees that nearly 1 in 40 mortgages are in default (and that number likely increasing in the next year to much more?

    Related: Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record (Sep 2007) – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders

  • 30 Year Conventional Fixed Mortgage Rates Increase

    This year, the average discount rate has fallen every month while the average 30 year mortgage rate has climbed all but 1 month (a 5 basis point drop). In January, 2008 the discount rate averaged 3.94% and 30 year conventional fixed rate mortgages averaged 5.76%. In May, 2008 the discount rate had fallen to 1.98% (for a 196 basis point drop) and 30 year conventional fixed rates had risen to 6.04% (for a 28 basis point increase).

    The chart shows the federal funds rate and the 30 year conventional fixed rate mortgage rate from January 2000 through May 2008 (for more details see: historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate).

    30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate 2000 to May 2008

    Related: Affect of Fed Funds Rates Changes on Mortgage Rates – real estate articles – Bond Yields 2005-2008 – Jumbo and Regular Mortgage Rates By Credit Score
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  • Fed Funds Rate Changes Don’t Indicate Mortgage Rate Changes

    The recent drastic reductions again emphasize (once again) that changes in the federal funds rate are not correlated with changes in the 30 year fixed mortgage rate. In the last 4 months the discount rate has been reduced nearly 200 basis points, while 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen 18 basis points.

    I have update my article showing the historical comparison of 30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate. The chart shows the federal funds rate and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate from January 2000 through April 2008 (for more details see the article).

    30 year fixed mortgage rates and the federal funds rate 200-2007

    There is not a significant correlation between moves in federal funds rate and 30 year mortgage rates that can be used for those looking to determine short term (over a few days, weeks or months) moves in the 30 year fixed mortgage rates. For example if 30 year rates are at 6% and the federal reserve drops the federal funds rate 50 basis points that tells you little about what the 30 year rate will do. No matter how often those that should know better repeat the belief that there is such a correlation you can look at the actual data in the graph above to see that it is not the case.

    Related: real estate articles – Affect of Fed Funds Rates Changes on Mortgage Rates – How Not to Convert Equity – more posts on financial literacy
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  • Housing Prices Post Record Declines

    Housing prices posted large declines over the last year. One important thing to keep in mind when looking at the recent results is how rare significant declines in housing prices have been. In general housing prices decline very little (less than 10% drops and normally less than 5%). Normally the turnover just decreases dramatically as people refuse to sell at lower prices and just stay in their house until prices recover. Housing Prices Post Record Declines:

    The S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks 20 of the largest housing markets, showed prices plummeting by 12.7% in the 12 months ending February. That’s the biggest fall since the index began tracking prices in 2000.

    Of those 20 metro areas, 17 posted their largest year-over-year declines ever. Ten of the 20 cities posted double-digit dips. The 10-city Case/Shiller index is down 13.6% year-over-year, the biggest drop since its launch in 1987
    …
    Prices in the Las Vegas metro area have plunged more than any other city, down 22.8% over the 12 months through February. Miami prices plummeted 21.7%. In Phoenix, they’ve fallen 20.8%. Of the 20 cities Case/Shiller tracks, only Charlotte, N.C. showed higher prices, up 1.5% over the 12-month period.

    Other metro areas recorded only modest price declines, including Portland, Ore., down 2.0%, Seattle, off 2.7% and Dallas, 4.1%. In the nation’s largest city, New York, metro area prices dropped a modest 6.6%.

    Related: Home Price Declines Exceeding 10% Seen for 20% of Housing Markets (Sep 2007) – How Not to Convert Equity – Housing Inventory Glut (Aug 2007) – Mortgage Defaults: Latest Woe for Housing (Feb 2007)

  • Homeowners Won’t Cut the Price

    It has long been the case that home owners refuse to accept falling prices and choose to demand higher prices than the market demands in a falling market. Therefore when prices should fall (to find buyers) instead the sales decrease as buyers don’t decrease prices to a level buyers are willing to pay. Be It Ever So Illogical: Homeowners Who Won’t Cut the Price

    So the couple, who both have finance jobs in the technology industry, told their real estate agent that they wanted to offer $1.575 million. He told them that the owner wouldn’t even listen to such a low bid. The owner’s attitude was “we’ll just stay here until we sell it for 1.875,” the agent said, “even if it takes years.”

    Three years ago, when the real estate bubble was still inflating, this sort of standoff was the exception. It’s the norm today. Overall home sales have fallen a remarkable 33 percent since the summer of 2005. Home prices, on the other hand, continued to rise until 2006 and are now only 5 to 10 percent below where they were in mid-2005, according to various measures.

  • Your Home as an Investment

    A house is where you live–not an investment

    If you’re living in the house you plan to live in for the rest of your life, you shouldn’t view it as an investment.

    Very good point – as long as you fall into that category of living there until you die. True for some people but far from all. Also, even for those people, it is not a complete view of the financial situation.

    A reverse mortgage will allow you to sell the house and get paid for the rest of the time you live there. So you can build up equity over 20,30,40 years and then take a reverse mortgage and get payments every month (based on your investing in your house). Reverse mortgages, like many financial tools, can be applied poorly and is I would guess unethical behavior related to them is fairly high (so be very careful!). If you think of such an option you need to do your research and actually understand what you are doing – you can’t afford to be like the many ignorant mortgagors. The AARP offers information on Reverse Mortgages.

    Additionally, you lock in a large part of your housing cost (you still have maintenance and taxes but you do not have every increasing rent. Now ever increasing rent is not a certainty but for many it is very likely rent will go up on average over the long term. Ownership of your home removes the risk of being priced out of the area you want to live by increasing rental prices over time. You also lose the potential of benefiting if rent prices fall over time, but I would say the more valuable of those options is avoiding the risk of rising rental prices.

    Related: How Not to Convert Equity – Housing Inventory Glut – articles on home ownership and real estate

  • Freezing Mortgage Rates

    “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” J. Paul Getty

    Individual mortgage holders are in the first situation; together they are in the second.

    I want to look into this whole situation of freezing some adjustable rates (that are scheduled to increase for adjustable rate mortgages) more – because I don’t really understand what is actually involved in the “agreement.” But my impression is that the government is paying nothing, giving no other incentives (like reducing taxes owed). With that being the case I can’t see why some people think it is bad. some people are saying it is unfair to people that were careful They don’t get this benefit. That makes little sense to me. One of the things you have to learn about investing and personal finance is there are no guaranties. You enter into mortgages with your best guess about what will happen (as the lender or the one receiving the loan).

    From my very surface understanding of what is involved is that the government used some moral suasion to try and get lenders to step up and provide more favorable terms than originally agreed to. I not that confident such a think we end up happening in practice but I don’t have a problem with the attempt. It is an interesting case where no single mortgage holder owes enough to harm the lenders but together the class does hold enough to harm them. So the lenders have gotten themselves into a situation where the problem is not just one for the mortgage holders but one that could harm them (because they have too much lent to the class – risky residential mortgages).

    The risk of a cascading bad impact. One waive of foreclosures triggers another and another… Thus creating huge losses for lenders. For that reason it makes sense to me that if (which is a huge if) they class of lenders can all agree to sacrifice some to avoid starting the runaway cascade of foreclosures they may benefit. Of course each individual lender would likely benefit if just everyone but them sacrificed.

    It seems to me if there really is some significant amount of freezing of loan rates that will have a significant impact on how much harm the foreclosures do to real estate prices and the economy. And so I can see how such an agreement could benefit everyone. But as I say I really need to read more about all this. And I am skeptical that individual lenders will try to limit there sacrifices and as each cuts back there sacrifice the risk of the cascade increases.

    An actually bailout – government money paying off those that took bad financial risks I would be very reluctant to support.

    Related: How Not to Convert Equity – Housing Inventory Glut – mortgage terms explained – 30 year fixed Mortgage Rates – Homes Entering Foreclosure at Record – Ignorance of Many Mortgage Holders – Beginning of the End of Housing Bubble? (April 2004)
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