Investing Curiouscatblog

Tag: USA

  • Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007

    The updated data from the United Nations on manufacturing output by country clearly shows the USA remains by far the largest manufacturer in the world. UN Data, in billions of current US dollars:

    Country 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
    USA 1,041 1,289 1,543 1,663 1,700 1,831
    China 143 299 484 734 891 1,106
    Japan 804 1,209 1.034 954 934 926
    Germany 438 517 392 566 595 670
    Russian Federation 211 104 73 222 281 362
    Italy 240 226 206 289 299 345
    United Kingdom 207 219 228 269 303 342
    France 224 259 190 249 248 296
    Korea 65 129 134 200 220 241
    Canada 92 100 129 177 195 218
    Spain 101 103 98 164 176 208
    Brazil 120 125 96 137 170 206
    Additional countries of interest – not the next largest
    India 50 59 67 118 135 167
    Mexico 50 55 107 122 136 144
    Indonesia 29 60 46 80 102 121
    Turkey 33 38 38 75 85 101

    The USA’s share of the manufacturing output of the countries that manufactured over $200 billion in 2007 (the 12 countries on the top of the chart above) in 1990 was 28%, 1995 28%, 2000 33%, 2005 30%, 2006 28%, 2007 27%. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990, 1995 7%, 2000 11%, 2005 13%, 2006 15%, 2007 16%.

    Total manufacturing output in the USA was up 76% in 2007 from the 1990 level. Japan, the second largest manufacturer in 1990, and third today, has increased output 15% (the lowest of the top 12, France is next lowest at 32%) while China is up an amazing 673% (Korea is next at an increase of 271%).
    (more…)

  • Central Bank Intervention Unprecedented in scale and Scope

    Central bank intervention … unprecedented in scale and scope by Brad Setser

    The Fed though is in the process of a very large change in the composition of its balance sheet, as it will temporarily be holding Agencies as an asset against its liabilities rather than Treasuries. It hasn’t formally bought the Agencies though, only allowed banks and broker dealers with Agencies and certain private mortgage-backed securities on hand to use them as collateral to borrow (temporarily) the Fed’s existing Treasuries.
    …
    As around $900b, the fed’s balance sheet is something like 6-7% of US GDP. With $1600b in foreign assets, the PBoC’s external balance sheet alone is more like 50% of China’s GDP.
    …
    But with Martin Wolf now arguing that scenarios with more than a trillion in credit market losses cannot be ruled out – even more unprecedented central bank — and government — action cannot be entirely ruled out. The scale of the “great unwind” has been stunning. The pace of change in the policy debate only slightly less so.

    Related: Fed takes leap towards the unthinkable – Goldman Sachs Rakes In Profit in Credit Crisis – Misuse of Statistics: Mania in Financial Markets – Why do we Have a Federal Reserve Board?

  • Americans are Drowning in Debt

    The story is a bit boring. People spend money they don’t have. But it is hard to ignore the story when it is so important. And so many people are foolishly ruining their financial future. When credit cards put you in jeopardy

    Consumers have racked up more than $2.2 trillion in purchases and cash advances on major credit cards in just the last year. And it’s become a habit for them to spend more than they have. The overall credit card debt grew by 315 percent from 1989 to 2006, according to public policy research firm Demos. To compound the problem, fewer people are paying their credit cards bills on time.

    Please stop. Don’t spend money you don’t have. Don’t think those political “leaders” that practice the same spending money they don’t have financial management are worthy of respect and don’t follow the bad example they continue to set.

    The article gives some tips. I would suggest the tips for using your credit cards I have blogged about earlier. But the main thing is really simple: don’t use your credit card for loans – pay off your full balance every month. Save money for things you want. When you have the money saved, then buy them. This is not rocket science it is pretty darn easy. Don’t spend what you don’t have.

    Related: Too Much Stuff – Financial Illiteracy Credit Trap – Poor Customer Service from Discover Card – Trying to Keep up with the Jones – Raising Taxes on Future Generations

  • Rodgers on the US and Chinese Economies

    Jimmy Rodgers is one of the most successful investors ever. He and George Soros were partners during the amazing run with Quantum Fund (up over 4000% in 10 years) and he has been successful since. This interview provides his current thoughts – ‘It’s going to be much worse’

    “Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I’m afraid it’s going to be much worse,” he says. “Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He’s out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we’ve had since the Second World War. It’s not a good scene.”

    Rogers looks at the Fed’s willingness to add liquidity to an already inflationary environment and sees the history of the 1970s repeating itself. Does that mean stagflation? “It is a real danger and, in fact, a probability.”

    One smart investor, no matter how smart, will have many wrong guesses about the future. Still he is someone worth listening to.

    Related: Investment Biker – Charge It to My Kids – Buffett’s 2007 Letter to Shareholders