Investing Curiouscatblog

Tag: China

  • Who Will Buy All the USA’s Debt?

    Who Will Buy All the USA’s Debt? That is a question worth thinking about. The USA is a huge net borrower. The government can’t borrow from consumers because they are hugely in debt themselves. Over the last few decades huge investments from Japan, China and the Middle East in USA government debt have allowed the huge amount of federal debt to continue to grow rapidly. But who is going to buy the increasing amounts of debt; in the next few years, and the next few decades?

    China is right to have doubts about who will buy all America’s debt

    Chinese doubts about the value of US Treasury bonds highlight a crucial question: who will buy the estimated $2.7 trillion (£1.9 trillion) to $4.2 trillion of debt expected to be issued over the next two years?
    …
    The other area of concern for China is the value of its Treasuries. Given the US borrowing requirement and its lax monetary policy, Treasury bond yields could well rise sharply, causing a corresponding price decline. If China’s holdings match Treasuries’ average 48-month duration, then a 5pc rise in yields, from 1.72pc on the 5-year note to 6.72pc, would lose China 17.5pc of its holdings’ value, or $119bn.

    Foreign buyers have absorbed a little over $200bn of Treasuries annually, a useful contribution to financing the $459bn 2008 deficit, but only a modest help towards the $1.35 trillion minimum average deficit forecast for 2009 and 2010.

    Unless that changes substantially, there will be $1 trillion annually to be raised by the Treasury from domestic sources, more than double the previous record from domestic and foreign sources together, plus whatever is needed to bail out the banks.

    Even if the US savings rate were to rise from zero to its long-term average of 8% of disposable personal income, that would create only an additional $830bn of savings — not enough to fund the domestic share of the deficit. Interest rates would probably have to rise substantially to pull in more foreign investors.

    Very true. Anyone buying government debt at these rates has reason to question the wisdom of doing so. Exporters to the USA have macro-economic reasons for buying debt (to keep the value of the dollar from collapsing) but the investing reasons for buying USA debt I find very questionable (I wouldn’t be buying it as an investment, if I were them).

    Related: Personal Saving and Personal Debt in the USA – Americans are Drowning in Debt – USA Federal Debt Now $516,348 Per Household – Is the USA Broke?

  • China and USA Exports and Imports Drop Sharply

    China and USA exports and imports have been dropping sharply. The USA has decreased the excess consumption over production by $20 billion a month (from $60B to $40B monthly deficit). China maintains a trade surplus and as imports drop faster than export this is actually increasing on a percentage basis.

    Can the improvement in the US trade balance continue?

    The US trade deficit — which is a good proxy for the current account balance (the income surplus offsets a transfers deficit) — is now around $40b a month. At its peak it was more like around $60b a month. That implies, if nothing changes, the 2009 current account deficit would be around $500b, down from a peak of $700b.
    …
    Deficits and surpluses are shrinking globally now that the price of oil is at levels that roughly cover the oil exporters imports.* Right now China’s (growing) surplus is clearly the main counterpart to the United States’ (shrinking) deficit.

    It is hard to put lipstick on a pig (or even an ox):

    The sharp fall in China’s exports (down 17.5% y/y) and imports (down 43% y/y) shouldn’t have been a complete surprise. Korean and Taiwanese exports are down far more than China’s exports, in large part because of sharp falls in their exports to China. And, given the intra-Asian supply chain, that has long augered bad news for China.

    Related: The Budget Deficit, the Current Account Deficit and the Saving Deficit – Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007 – Personal Saving and Personal Debt in the USA – Charge It to My Kids

  • Corrupt Officials Have Fled China With As Much As $100 billion

    As many as 10,000 corrupt government officials have fled China with $100 billion.

    he joins as many as 10,000 corrupt Chinese officials who have fled the country over the past decade, taking as much as $100 billion of public funds with them, according to an estimate by Li Chengyan, head of Peking University’s Anticorruption Research Institute.

    More unexpected, however, was the heavy press coverage that Yang’s walkabout attracted in a country where the government is generally reluctant to wash its dirty linens in public. That suggests that “the government is sending a signal” that it regards “the number of officials fleeing as a very important problem which needs to be solved,” says Mao Zhaohui, director of anticorruption studies at Beijing’s Renmin University.

    Corruption is pervasive at almost every level of the government, and it is a major factor eroding faith in the ruling Communist Party. Earlier this year, after thousands of schoolchildren died in the Sichuan earthquake, the Internet was ablaze with accusations that local officials had taken bribes to approve substandard materials for school construction.

    Chinese President Hu Jintao has repeatedly declared that the fight against fraud is a top government priority and courts have handed down heavy sentences against prominent offenders. Last year, the former head of the Chinese Food and Drug Administration, Zheng Xiaoyu, was executed after being found guilty of taking bribes to approve thousands of new drugs.

    China has many strong winds for economic growth. Corruption is an anchor holding back their progress.

    Related: Capitalism in China – Not Understanding Capitalism – Oil Consumption by Country – Data on Leading Manufacturing Countries – Curious Cat Economics Search Engine

  • Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007

    The updated data from the United Nations on manufacturing output by country clearly shows the USA remains by far the largest manufacturer in the world. UN Data, in billions of current US dollars:

    Country 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
    USA 1,041 1,289 1,543 1,663 1,700 1,831
    China 143 299 484 734 891 1,106
    Japan 804 1,209 1.034 954 934 926
    Germany 438 517 392 566 595 670
    Russian Federation 211 104 73 222 281 362
    Italy 240 226 206 289 299 345
    United Kingdom 207 219 228 269 303 342
    France 224 259 190 249 248 296
    Korea 65 129 134 200 220 241
    Canada 92 100 129 177 195 218
    Spain 101 103 98 164 176 208
    Brazil 120 125 96 137 170 206
    Additional countries of interest – not the next largest
    India 50 59 67 118 135 167
    Mexico 50 55 107 122 136 144
    Indonesia 29 60 46 80 102 121
    Turkey 33 38 38 75 85 101

    The USA’s share of the manufacturing output of the countries that manufactured over $200 billion in 2007 (the 12 countries on the top of the chart above) in 1990 was 28%, 1995 28%, 2000 33%, 2005 30%, 2006 28%, 2007 27%. China’s share has grown from 4% in 1990, 1995 7%, 2000 11%, 2005 13%, 2006 15%, 2007 16%.

    Total manufacturing output in the USA was up 76% in 2007 from the 1990 level. Japan, the second largest manufacturer in 1990, and third today, has increased output 15% (the lowest of the top 12, France is next lowest at 32%) while China is up an amazing 673% (Korea is next at an increase of 271%).
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  • Capitalism in China

    Horatio Alger Multiplied by 1.3 Billion

    Mr. Feng, the chief executive of Aigo, a large Chinese consumer electronics company, is a classic Chinese entrepreneur: starting with $31 in his pocket, he has built a business whose products are a staple of urban China, including digital cameras, MP3 players and a new iPhone-like all-in-one device. Before telling me his Horatio Alger story, though, he had something he wanted me to understand.

    “My mother and father went through the Cultural Revolution,” Mr. Feng said. “They had no chance.” He continued: “When I was in grammar school, the Cultural Revolution ended. When I graduated from university in 1992, that was the year of real reform. Deng Xiaoping encouraged students to go into business and become entrepreneurs. Before then, if you wanted to be an entrepreneur, you would sink like a stone. But after that, anyone could be an entrepreneur.”
    …
    But look at what else happened: motivated by the prospect of wealth, people started companies. And as those companies succeeded, millions of new jobs were created.

    I have written about the importance of capitalism to improve life for people around the globe. I have also discussed how many don’t understand what capitalism is (the general idea that capitalism is largely about those with the gold making the rules, which it is not).

    Capitalism fundamentally is about allowing market to determine how to allocate resources (and government protecting that function along with others such as providing security, regulating externalities…). There are serious problems with in the USA in this regard – with enormous political favors granted those giving politicians enormous payments and oligopolies restricting the market from working properly. The government fails to properly regulate oligopolies, as dictated by capitalism – to prevent the markets to be dictated to by organizations pursuing their own interests, again due to large payments to politicians by those favored by preventing capitalism from working (either that or just a co-incidence that those making big payments just happen to give to politicians legislating [and overseeing regulators] against capitalism).

    Just to state the obvious, Chinese government policy and practices also conflicts with capitalism frequently.

    Related: Estate Tax Repeal – What is Wrong with Copyright Taking Public Good for Private Special Interests – Bill Gates: Capitalism on the 21st Century – The Future is Engineering – Making a Difference – Diplomacy and Science Research

  • A Bull on China

    I recently started reading A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market and am enjoying it.

    From the Curious Cat Management blog, Decemeber, 2004:

    Adventure Capitalist by Jim Rogers tracked his trip around the world by car. Previously he had documented his around the world motorcycle journey in Investment Biker. His views offer a worthwhile perspective that is often missed, in my opinion. That said I wouldn’t accept his views as the final truth they are valuable as one perspective to shed light on areas that are often overlooked.

    China Wakes, by Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl Wudunn documents their time as Journalists in China (1988-1993) and again offers valuable insight into China. Obviously even gaining an incredibly oversimplified view of China would take a great deal more than one, or even ten books. Still the authors provide viewpoints that I found added, in a small way, to a picture of what China, was, is and may become. I plan to read their book: Thunder from the East: Portrait of a Rising Asia.

    Related: Rodgers on the US and Chinese Economies – Chinese economy and investment articles

  • Rodgers on the US and Chinese Economies

    Jimmy Rodgers is one of the most successful investors ever. He and George Soros were partners during the amazing run with Quantum Fund (up over 4000% in 10 years) and he has been successful since. This interview provides his current thoughts – ‘It’s going to be much worse’

    “Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I’m afraid it’s going to be much worse,” he says. “Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He’s out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we’ve had since the Second World War. It’s not a good scene.”

    Rogers looks at the Fed’s willingness to add liquidity to an already inflationary environment and sees the history of the 1970s repeating itself. Does that mean stagflation? “It is a real danger and, in fact, a probability.”

    One smart investor, no matter how smart, will have many wrong guesses about the future. Still he is someone worth listening to.

    Related: Investment Biker – Charge It to My Kids – Buffett’s 2007 Letter to Shareholders

  • China’s Job Market

    Students Grow Desperate Over China’s Tight Job Market

    The Labor and Social Security Ministry estimated recently that as many as 4.9 million youths will graduate from universities by the end of 2007, up by nearly 20 percent over 2006. Another 49.5 million will graduate from high school, also a 20 percent increase. The sharp climb in graduation rates represents a dramatic improvement in the lives of many Chinese, made possible by the economic transformation that has taken place here over the past quarter-century.

    But indications have emerged that, booming as it is, the economy may not be able to absorb that many degree-holders into the jobs for which they are being trained. “The fact is that it’s very hard for college students to get the right job these days,” said Zhang Xuxin, a Zhengzhou student with close-cropped hair and plastic-rimmed glasses who plans to pursue postgraduate studies next year. “You may have a job, but it’s very hard to have an ideal one.”

    Growing an economy to create huge numbers of even decent jobs is very difficult, especially when starting from where China and India were in 1990. Often the strength of China’s economy blinds people to the continued great difficulty. Good jobs are the lifeblood of an economy. China has lost far more manufacturing jobs than any other country. Yes, even as they have grown their manufacturing production enormously. The entire world is increasing manufacturing output while decreasing manufacturing employment, see: Manufacturing Jobs Data: USA and China.

    Graduates shut out of job market
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