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Tag: economic data

  • Manufacturing Output as Percent of GDP from 1980 to 2010 by Country

    The largest manufacturing countries are China, USA, Japan and then Germany. These 4 are far in the lead, and very firmly in their positions. Only the USA and China are close, and the momentum of China is likely moving it quickly ahead – even with their current struggles.

    The chart below shows manufacturing production by country as a percent of GDP of the 10 countries that manufacture the most. China has over 30% of the GDP from manufacturing, though the GDP share fell dramatically from 2005 and is solidly in the lead.

    Nearly every country is decreasing the percentage of their economic output from manufacturing. Korea is the only exception, in this group. I would expect Korea to start following the general trend. Also China has reduced less than others, I expect China will also move toward the trend shown by the others (from 2005 to 2010 they certainly did).

    For the 10 largest manufacturing countries in 2010, the overall manufacturing GDP percentage was 24.9% of GDP in 1980 and dropped to 17.7% in 2010. The point often missed by those looking at their country is most of these countries are growing manufacturing, they are just growing the rest of their economy more rapidly. It isn’t accurate to see this as a decline of manufacturing. It is manufacturing growing more slowly than (information technology, health care, etc.).

    chart of manufacturing output as percent of GDP by country from 1980 to 2010
    This chart shows manufacturing output, as percent of GDP, by country and was created by the Curious Cat Economics Blog based on UN data. You may use the chart with attribution.

    The manufacturing share of the USA economy dropped from 21% in 1980 to 18% in 1990, 15% in 2000 and 13% in 2010. Still, as previous posts show, the USA manufacturing output has grown substantially: over 300% since 1980, and 175% since 1990. The proportion of manufacturing output by the USA (for the top 10 manufacturers) has declined from 33% in 1980, 32% in 1990, 35% in 2000 to 26% in 2010. If you exclude China, the USA was 36% of the manufacturing output of these 10 countries in 1980 and 36% in 2010. China’s share grew from 7.5% to 27% during that period.

    The United Kingdom has seen manufacturing fall all the way to 10% of GDP, manufacturing little more than they did 15 years ago. Japan is the only other country growing manufacturing so slowly (but Japan has one of the highest proportion of GDP from manufacturing – at 20%). Japan manufactures very well actually, the costs are very high and so they have challenges but they have continued to manufacture quite a bit, even if they are not growing output much.

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  • Household Income Data in the USA Since the Credit Crisis Recession Began

    Big Income Losses for Those Near Retirement takes a look at some interesting data, including data on median income drops due to the too-big-too-fail credit crisis recession.

    Households led by people between the ages of 55 and 64 have taken the biggest hit; their household incomes have fallen to $55,748 from $61,716 over the last three years, a decline of 9.7 percent.

    The post also includes data showing the only groups with income increases as those 65-74 years old and, 75 and over which is surprising. 25-34 took the 2nd largest drop decreasing 8.9%.

    Another interesting tidbit is the percent of people over 65 with jobs. In 1960 20% of those over 65 had jobs. Which pretty much decreased steadily to 10% in 1986 and then has increased steadily to 17% in 2011.

    Related: USA Individual Earnings Levels: Top 1% $343,000, 5% $154,000, 10% $112,000, 25% $66,000 –
    Looking at Data on the Value of Different College Degrees – 60% of Workers in the USA Have Less Than $25,000 in Retirement Savings – Credit Card Regulation Has Reduced Abuse By Banks

  • USA Adds 163,000 Jobs in July, Unemployment Rate at 8.3%

    After several poor months for job creation (adding well under 100,000 each month) we have some good news. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 8.3%. Since the beginning of this year, employment growth has averaged 151,000 per month, about the same as the average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.

    The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000, and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000. Which means the total job gains for this report is 157,000 (163,000 +10,000 [for May] and -16,000 [for June]).

    One of the continuing severe problems (since the credit crisis bubble burst) has been long term unemployment. In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was 5.2 million. These individuals accounted for 40.7% of the unemployed (a high figure historically).

    Given all the problems created by the financial system failure (created over the last 15 years – in the USA and Europe) it is actually fairly amazing that we have been adding jobs nearly as much as we have. But climbing out of the huge whole we created for ourselves (by continually re-electing those that allowed the too-big-too-fail financial mess – and those we elect continue to reward their friends that created the mess instead of fixing it) is a huge task. It requires much better job creation than we have had this year.

    Adding 150,000 jobs a month would be decent if we hadn’t created such a huge problem that digging out of it requires much better results. Moving back above that average is much better than being below it, but we really need to bring the new jobs created above 200,000 for a couple years to make a serious dent in the problems created earlier.

    Related: USA add 117,000 Jobs in July 2011 and Adjusts Previous Growth in May and June Up 56,000 More – USA Unemployment Rate at 9.6% (Sept 2010) – Unemployment Rate Drops Slightly to 9.4% (Aug 2009) –
    Over 500,000 Jobs Disappeared in November 2008
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  • Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment

    Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2012

    in 2011, global investment in the renewable energy sector hit another record, up 17% to $257 billion. This was a six fold increase on the 2004 figure and 93% higher than the total in 2007.
    …
    renewable power (excluding large hydro) accounted for 44% of new generation
    capacity added worldwide in 2011, up from 34% in 2010 [and 10% in 2004]. The $237 billion invested in building these green power plants compares with $223 billion of net new expenditure annually on building additional fossil-fuelled power plants globally last year.
    …
    Current predictions are that total installed capacity in non-hydro renewable power will rise ninefold to 2.5Tw by 2030, with investment in assets rising from $225 billion in 2011 to $395 billion-a-year by 2020 and $460 billion-a-year by 2030

    Total investment in solar in 2011 increased 52% to $147 billion, driven by a drop of 50% in photovoltaic module prices. Investment in wind dropped 12% to $84 billion, while onshore wind turbine prices fell between 5 and 10%. Biomass and waste to energy was the 3rd largest renewable sector at $11 billion in investments (down 12% from 2010).

    USA investment surged 51% to $51 billion just behind China at $52 billion (China increased investment in renewable energy by 17% from 2010). German investment dropped 12% to $31 billion.

    In 2011 renewable energy power capacity (excluding large hydropower), as a percentage of total system capacity, reached 9%, up from 4% in 2004. Total renewable energy generation (excluding large hydro) reached 6%, up from 4% in 2004.

    Related: Top Countries For Renewable Energy Capacity – Wind Energy Capacity Exceeds 2.5% of Global Electricity Needs – Leasing or Purchasing a Solar Energy System For Your Home

  • Nuclear Power Generation by Country from 1985-2010

    chart of nuclear power generation by the largest producing countries from 1985 to 2010The chart shows the top nuclear power producing countries from 1985 to 2010. The chart created by Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog may be used with attribution. Data from US Department of Energy.

    ___________________

    Nuclear power provided 14% of the world’s electricity in 2010. Wind power capacity increased 233% Worldwide from 2005 2010, to a total of 2.5% of global electricity needs. Nuclear power generation declined by .72% for the same period.

    Burning coal was responsible for 41% of electricity generation in 2010. Burning natural gas accounted for 21% and hydroelectric generation accounted for 15%.

    Japan just announced that they have closed their last operating nuclear power plant. They have no nuclear power plant generating electricity for the first time in more than 40 years. It will be interesting to see how low their actual generation totals fall this year. They plan to re-open some of the plants but it is a political issue that is far from settled.

    Globally nuclear power production increased 84% from 1985 to 2010. This is a very low percentage. Global output over that period increased much more than that, as did global electricity use. The share of electricity production provided by nuclear power peaked at about 17% for much of the 1990s.

    Related: Nuclear Power Production Globally from 1985 to 2009 – Oil Production by Country 1999-2009 – Top 10 Countries for Manufacturing Production from 1980 to 2010: China, USA, Japan, Germany… – Japan to Add Personal Solar Subsidies – Nuclear Energy Institute (statistics)

    Another view of data on nuclear power shows which of the leading nuclear producing countries have the largest percentages of their electrical generating capacity provided by nuclear power plants (as of 2009). France has 75% of all electricity generated from nuclear power. Ukraine had the second largest percentage at 49%, then Sweden at 37% and South Korea at 35%. Japan is at 28% compared to 20% for the USA. Russia was at 18% and China was at just 2%.

  • USA Adds Just 120,000 Job in March, Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.2%

    Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.2%, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in manufacturing, food services, and health care, but was down in retail trade. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +284,000 to +275,000, and the change for February was revised from +227,000 to +240,000 (together this adds just 4,000 more jobs brining the total added jobs with this report to 124,000.

    Adding 120,000 jobs in a month is mediocre in general for the USA economy. The biggest reason for disappointment is during recoveries jobs are normally added at a higher rate, and given how many jobs were lost in the during the credit crisis outsized job gains are needed. The other reason adding 120,000 jobs was disappointing is the consensus estimate was for over 200,000 jobs to be added.

    The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March and remains one of the biggest employment problems for the economy. These individuals accounted for 42.5% of the unemployed. Since April 2010, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 1.4 million.

    In the prior 3 months, payroll employment had risen by an average of 246,000 per month. Private-sector employment grew by 121,000 in March, including gains in manufacturing, food services, and health care.

    Manufacturing employment rose by 37,000 in March, with gains in motor vehicles and parts (+12,000), machinery (+7,000), fabricated metals (+5,000), and paper manufacturing (+3,000). Factory employment has risen by 470,000 since a recent low point in January 2010. Manufacturing continues providing some of the best employment news.

    Related: Latest USA Jobs Report Adds 286,000 Jobs; Another Very Strong Month (Mar 2012) – USA Adds 216,00 Jobs in March 2011; the Unemployment Rate Stands at 8.8% – USA Added 162,000 Jobs in March 2010 – Another 663,000 Jobs Lost in March 2009 in the USA

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  • Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival #28

    Welcome to the Curious Cat Investing, Economics and Personal Finance Carnival: find useful recent personal finance, investing and economics blog posts and articles. The carnival is published twice each month. This carnival is different than other carnival: I select posts from the blogs I read (instead of just posting those that submit to the carnival as many carnivals do). If you would like to host the carnival add a comment below.

    • Why the April Jobs Report Could Be a Disaster – “the one-two punch of a warmer winter and unusual seasonal adjustment factors stemming from the financial crisis could combine to create something of a disaster for those writing the labor market headlines in early-May when the April jobs data is reported.” [it also may not turn out to be an issue, but it is an interesting post and the type of thing you need to consider when looking at economic data – John]
    • Evaluating Your Auto Insurance Policy – “many companies offer defensive driver discounts if you take a course or install a device in your car to monitor your habits. You can also get good student discounts for students on your policy, low mileage discounts for cars you don’t drive much, accident-free discounts when you haven’t been in an accident lately, and loyalty discounts for sticking with the company.”
    • Buyting Foreclosed Homes as Rental Investments – “Since 2007, investors have been trolling the cratered suburbs stretching from California to Florida for cheap houses to flip. And firms such as PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust have sought value in subprime-mortgage-backed securities. Waypoint, which owns 1,100 houses and is buying five more a day, is betting that converting foreclosures into rentals is a better way to make a profit.”
    • How Long Can We Finance the Debt? by James Kwak – “Since the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its balance sheet as the economy recovers, if foreign holdings of U.S. government debt simply remain at current levels (as a share of GDP), they expect that 10-year yields would climb to 7.9 percent by 2020—rather than 5.4 percent as forecast in the CBO’s baseline.”
    • The Case for Raising Top Tax Rates – “In 1980, the top marginal rate was 70 percent for families making more than $215,400 — about $587,000 in current dollars. And these families pocketed a much smaller share of the nation’s income than they do now. Today, people earning over $200,000 a year capture more than a third of national income.”

  • 60% of Workers in the USA Have Less Than $25,000 in Retirement Savings

    2012 Retirement Confidence Survey

    (60 percent) report they and/or their spouses have less than $25,000 in total savings and investments (excluding their home and defined benefit plans), including 30 percent who have less than $1,000

    The data would be better if some value were placed on defined benefit plans; currently it is a bit confusing how much they may help. But the $25,000 threshold is so low that no matter what being under that value is extremely bad news for anyone over 40. And failing to have saved over just $25,000 toward retirement is bad news for anyone over 30 without a defined benefit plan.

    The large majority of workers who have not saved for retirement have little in savings. Almost two-thirds (63 percent) report they have less than $1,000 in savings and investments, and another quarter (25 percent) have $1,000–$9,999.

    Thirty-four percent of workers report they had to dip into savings to pay for basic expenses in the past 12 months.
    …
    Thirty-five percent of all workers think they need to accumulate at least $500,000 by the time they retire to live comfortably in retirement. Eighteen percent feel they need between $250,000 and $499,999, while 34 percent think they need to save less than $250,000 for a comfortable retirement.

    Workers who have performed a retirement needs calculation are more than twice as likely as those who have not (23 percent vs. 10 percent) to expect they will need to accumulate at least $1 million before retiring.

    66% of workers say their family has retirement savings and 58% say they are currently saving for retirement. These results are fairly consistent over the last few decades (the current values are in the lower ranges of results).

    Nearly everyone wishes they had more money. One way to act as though you have more than you do is to borrow and spend (which is normally unwise – it can make sense for a house and in limited amounts when you are first going out on your own). Another is to ignore long term needs and just live it up today. That is a very bad personal finance strategy but one many people follow. Saving for retirement is a personal finance requirement. If you can’t save for retirement given your current income and lifestyle you need to reduce your current spending to save or increase your income and then save for retirement.

    A year or two of failing to do so is acceptable. Longer stretches add more and more risk to your personal financial situation. It may not be fun to accept the responsibilities of adulthood and plan for the long term. But failing to do so is a big mistake. Determining the perfect amount to save for retirement is complicated. A reasonable retirement saving plan is not.

    Saving 10% of your gross income from the time you are 25 until 65 gives you a decent ballpark estimate. Then you can adjust even 5 or 10 years as you can look at your situation. It will likely take over 10% to put you in a lifestyle similar to the one you enjoy while working. But many factors are at play. To be safer saving at 12% could be wise. If you know you want to work less than 40 years saving more could be wise. If you have a defined benefit plan (rare now, but, for example police or fire personnel often still do you can save less but you must work until you gain those benefits or you will be in extremely bad shape.

    IRAs, 401(k) and 403(b) plans are a great way to save for retirement (giving you tax deferral and Roth versions of those plans are even better – assuming tax rates rise).

    Related: In the USA 43% Have Less Than $10,000 in Retirement Savings – Saving for Retirement

  • Latest USA Jobs Report Adds 286,000 Jobs; Another Very Strong Month

    Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from +203,000 to +223,000, and the change for January was revised from +243,000 to +284,000. Which brings the total new jobs for this report to 286,000 (227+20+39). This is very good news. There are other serious economic concerns (failure, after years, to take any meaningful action to prevent systemic too big to fail risk, policies harming savers to benefit too big to fail institutions, extremely large and dangerous budget deficits…) and the employment situation still has a long way to go to recover from the credit crisis crash but the recent job news is strongly positive.

    The number of unemployed persons, at 12.8 million, was essentially unchanged in February. The unemployment rate held at 8.3%, 80 basis points below the August 2011 rate of 9.1%.

    The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) remains at very damaging levels; it was little changed at 5.4 million in February. These individuals accounted for 42.6% of the unemployed.

    Both the labor force and employment rose in February. The civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.9 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.6 percent, edged up over the month.

    Private-sector employment grew by 233,000, with job gains in professional and business services, health care and
    social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining. Government jobs declined by 6,000. In 2011,
    government lost an average of 22,000 jobs per month.

    Professional and business services added 82,000 jobs in February. Just over half of the increase occurred in temporary help services (+45,000). Job gains also occurred in computer systems design (+10,000) and in management and technical consulting services (+7,000). Employment in professional and business services has grown by 1.4 million since a recent low point in September 2009.

    Health care and social assistance employment rose by 61,000 over the month. Within health care, ambulatory care services added 28,000 jobs, and hospital employment increased by 15,000. Over the past 12 months, health care employment has risen by 360,000.

    In February, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 44,000, with nearly all of the increase in food services and drinking places (+41,000). Since a recent low in February 2010, food services has added 531,000 jobs.

    Manufacturing employment rose by 31,000 in February. All of the increase occurred in durable goods manufacturing, with job gains in fabricated metal products (+11,000), transportation equipment (+8,000), machinery (+5,000), and furniture and related products (+3,000). Durable goods manufacturing has added 444,000 jobs since a recent trough in January 2010. Of all the good news the continued manufacturing gains may well be the best news.

    Related: Nov 2010 USA Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.8% – USA Unemployment Rate Remains at 9.7% (Feb 2010) – Another 663,000 Jobs Lost in March 2009, in the USA

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  • Consumer and Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rates from 2001 to 2011 in the USA

    chart showing loan delinquency rates from 2001 to 2011 in the USA
    Chart showing loan delinquency rates from 2001-2011. It shows seasonally adjusted data for all banks for consumer and real estate loans. The chart is available for use with attribution. Data from the Federal Reserve.

    2011 saw delinquency rates for loans fall across the board in the USA. Residential real estate delinquency rates fell just 25 basis points (to a still extremely large 9.86%). Commercial real estate delinquency rates fell an impressive 186 basis points (to a still high 6.12%). Credit card delinquency rates fell 86 basis points to a 17 year low, 3.27%.

    The job market continues to struggle, though it is doing fairly well the last few months. The serious long term problems created by governments spending beyond their means (for decades) and allowing too big to fail institutions to destroy economic wealth and create great risk to the economy are not easy to solve: and we made no progress in doing so in 2011. The reduction in delinquency rates is a good sign for the economy. The residential real estate delinquency rates are still far too high as is government debt. And the failure to address the too big to fail (big donors to the politicians) is continuing to cause great damage to the economy.

    We need to reduce consumer and government debt. Many corporations are actually flush with cash, so at least we don’t have a huge corporate debt problem. Reducing debt load will decrease risks to the economy and provide wealth for consumers to tap as they move into retirement. The too-big-to-fail big political donors like to keep policies in place that encourage too much debt and favor complex financial instruments that they take huge fees from and then let the government deal with the aftermath. The politicians continued favors to too-big-to-fail institutions is very damaging to out economic well being.

    Across the board, the wealthy economies are facing a rapidly aging population (the USA is actually acing this at a much slower rate than most other rich countries – which is helpful).

    Related: Consumer and Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rates 2000-2011 – Real Estate and Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates 1998-2009 – Government Debt as Percent of GDP 1998-2010 for OECD

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