Investing Curiouscatblog

Tag: Investing

  • Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival #2

    Welcome to the second edition of our investing and economics carnival.

    • How Does the Current Crisis Compare to the Great Depression? by Price Fishback – “How does this compare to the Great Depression? We won’t know the final outcome of this recession for a while, but I can safely say that the current situation is nowhere near as bad as the situation during the 1930’s.”
    • US GDP and imports by Matt Nolan – “Now, this doesn’t actually make sense as a measure to look at. Why? Well when we measure GDP we are interested in ‘domestic production’…”
    • 100th Entrepreneur Loan by John Hunter – “Participating with Kiva is a great antidote to reading about the unethical ‘leaders’ taking huge sums to run their companies into the ground (or even just taking obscene sums to maintain their company). The opportunity to give real capitalists an chance at a better life is wonderful.”
    • The Best 15 Financial iPhone Apps by David Weliver – “More than a dozen great financial apps for the iPhone make tracking and managing your personal finances on the go as easy as texting. Want to enlist your iPhone to help you get richer?”
    • Bolster Your Emergency Fund In A Prolonged Crisis – “To prepare for the worst, we should picture an unemployed scenario and get serious about bulking up our emergency fund to meet at least six to eight months of expenses.”
    • How to make money without a job and why you should – “There are two more advantages to alternative income besides diversification of income sources. First of all is the expansion of skills… You are learning something new, and making it that much more likely that you’ll be able to add further income streams…
    • Five Low-Risk Stocks For Gen Y – “There are much better alternatives for the ultra-conservative Gen Y investors than money market accounts, Treasuries and CDs. A conservative strategy focusing on high quality, low risk dividend stocks should significantly out-perform the above investments, with very little incremental long-term risk.”
    • 5 easy ways to save money and the environment – “Bottled water is a huge drain on our resources and are grossly overpriced. Reusable water bottles use fewer resources, save you money… Compact fluorescent light bulbs use 25% of the energy of standard incandescent bulbs and usually last 5 years or more…”
    • Text Messaging is the Biggest Scam of the 21st Century – “The cost per GB of cable internet is $0.75… the cost per GB of cell phone data $6.00… the cost per GB of text messaging data is $800…”

    I decided to add this investing and economics carnival after running the Curious Cat Management Management Improvement Carnival for several years. If you like these posts you may also be interested in the Invest Reddit where a community of those interested in investing submit and rate articles and blog posts.

  • Beware of the Sucker’s Rally

    Beware of the sucker’s rally

    The Bull Market Express may really be pulling out of the station, but Wall Street’s trains have a nasty tendency to derail just as passengers jostle for seats. Most recently, the S&P 500 soared 24 per cent over seven weeks ending in early January, only to plunge to a new low. It was a fairly typical sucker’s rally and bear markets often need more than one to create sufficient disillusionment for a definitive bottom.

    The 2000–2002 bear market had three, with average gains of 21 per cent in the Dow Jones Industrials over 45 days.

    The granddaddy of all bear markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent. And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then.

    Bear markets typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent.

    I don’t put much money on the line trying to time the stock market. I thought the decline was overdone and I have found some things to buy. I am not convinced the current assent of the USA market especially means the bear market is over. If I had to sell stocks, I would be much happier to do it now than 3 months ago. That said, I am not selling anything or reducing my planned buying (401k buying).

    Related: Financial Markets Continue Panicky Behavior (Oct 2008) – Trying to Beat the Market – Add to Your 401(k) and IRA – see my investing portfolio results

  • Warren Buffett’s Q&A With Shareholders 2009

    Each year Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger answer questions in front of crowds of tens of thousands of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in Omaha, Nebraska. The question and answer sessions provide great wisdom on economics, investing and management. Here are some of the highlights I have found from the meeting yesterday.

    Buffett, Munger praise Google’s ‘moat’

    “Google has a huge new moat,” Munger said. “In fact I’ve probably never seen such a wide moat.” Google’s main business of charging companies when people click on their ads after running an Internet search is “incredible,” the Berkshire chairman said. “I don’t know how to take it away from them,” he added. “Their moat is filled with sharks,” Munger said.

    Berkshire’s Buffett Calls Wells Fargo ‘Fabulous’ Bank

    “All banks aren’t alike by a long shot, and in our view Wells Fargo, among the large banks, has some advantages the others do not,” Buffett said today at Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.

    The stock closed at $19.61 yesterday after falling below $9 in March. Buffett said he was speaking to a class the day the shares dropped that low and told students that, at that price, “If I had to put all of my net worth into stock, that would be the stock.”

    Buffett, who has said he values lenders partly on their ability to acquire funds from depositors, told shareholders today that he’d “love” to buy the entire bank and is unable to do so because Berkshire wouldn’t get permission from regulators.

    Inflation on the horizon

    Reflecting on the near implosion of the financial system last fall, Buffett said officials should be judged more leniently when facing “as close to a total meltdown as you can imagine.”

    But he warned that efforts such as the Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program and the $787 billion fiscal stimulus plan passed this year by Congress will have to be paid for, one way or another. And with political leaders showing little inclination to raise taxes, one sure way to pay for excess spending is to inflate the value of the currency, Buffett said. The biggest losers in a surge of inflation, he added, would include holders of bonds and other fixed-income assets.
    …
    “Government does need to step in,” Buffett said, referring to the 6% contraction of the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.

    That’s not to say he is pleased with the earmarks Congress has attached to some of the rescue legislation. Inevitably, Buffett said, when big organizations turn massive resources on a problem, “there’s a fair amount of slop.”

    Related: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2008 – Warren Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders 2009 – Great Advice from Warren Buffett – Warren Buffett’s 2004 Annual Report
    (more…)

  • Jubak Looks at 5 Technology Stocks

    Jim Jubak’s articles not only provide specific stock picks but also offer a good view on how to analyze stocks. Reading his columns is something I would recommend for anyone interested in investing in individual stocks (in addition to reading excellent books on investing). His latest column is 5 tech stocks full of promise

    After that research, you could spend some time thinking about how Cisco fits into the post-recession, slow-growth paradigm that I laid out in my previous column. You’d likely conclude that Cisco would actually gain an edge from that kind of economy, because many of its products — from Internet protocol telephony to Web conferencing to its recent entry into the market for blade servers for data centers — offer customers a way to cut costs while retaining or improving functionality. That’s a solid value proposition in an economy where lots of customers will be looking for value.

    Then you’d probably spend some time looking at the price trends in the market. If you did, you’d notice that technology stocks were showing relative strength by hanging above their January highs (in contrast to sectors that are fighting to get back to January highs). You’d also see from your study of the charts that Cisco shares were near resistance levels set by their 200-day moving average and their April high of about $18.50.
    …
    None of that tells you whether the stock is reasonably priced. To figure that out, you might look at the average P/E ratio of the past five years. Because the average was 21.6, you could conclude that Cisco, at 14.1, was undervalued, since the price in the future will climb until Cisco trades again at something like 21.6 times earnings. Or you could conclude that the lower P/E ratio was a logical reaction by investors to the company’s falling earnings. Wall Street analysts now think Cisco’s earnings will fall 23.2% in fiscal 2009 and 6.3% in fiscal 2010.

    Setting a target price isn’t a science. Where your target winds up is a result of the assumptions you make going in. I like to check the range of price targets for a stock and compare that with its current price. For Cisco, the range for a 12-month target price now seems to fall between $16 and $31 a share. At a recent $18.50 or so, Cisco has been trading above the most pessimistic target, but not by a great deal. Depending on your read for the market as a whole, that means Cisco is toward the cheap end of reasonable but not a compelling buy if you think, as I do, that this rally will yield to a correction in the next month or six weeks.

    Related: 12 Stocks for 10 Years (March 2009 Update) – 10 Stocks for Income Investors – Dollar Cost Averaging – Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You?

  • Immediate Annuities

    Life Insurers Profit as Retirees Fear Outliving Cash by Alexis Leondis

    Sales of so-called immediate annuities are climbing as retirees are drawn to lifetime payments guaranteed by U.S. insurance companies. Immediate annuities pay a periodic fixed amount of money for life in exchange for a lump-sum payment.
    …
    Payouts among insurers vary significantly, said Weatherford of NAVA. Monthly payments range from $629 to $745 for a $100,000 investment by a 65-year-old male, according to a survey of six issuers by Hueler Companies, a Minneapolis-based data research firm and provider of an independent annuity platform.

    An annuity is a comforting in that you cannot outlive your annuity payment. However, there are drawbacks also. Having a portion of retirement financing based on annuity payments does help planning. Social security payments are effectively an annuity (that also increases each year, to counter inflation). While living off social security payments alone is not an enticing prospect, as a portion of a retirement plan those payments can be valuable. If you have a pension that can also serve as an annuity.

    It can make sense to put a portion of retirement assets into an annuity however I would limit the amount, myself. And the annuity payout is partially determined by current interest rates, which are very low, and those now the payout rates are low. If interest rates stay low, then you lose nothing but if interest rates increase substantially in the next several year (which is certainly possible) the payout for annuities would likely increase.

    Choosing to purchase an annuity is something that should be done after careful study and only once you understand the investment options available to you. Also you need to have saved up substantial retirement saving to take advantage of the option to buy enough monthly income to contribute substantially to your retirement (so don’t forget to do that while you are working).

    Related: Many Retirees Face Prospect of Outliving Savings – Spending Guidelines in Retirement – Retirement Tips from TIAA CREF – Social Security Trust Fund

  • The Best Way to Rob a Bank is as An Executive at One

    William Black wrote The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L. I think he a bit off on the “owning one,” being the best way to loot. The looters are not owners, they are executives that loot from owners, taxpayers, customers… And those looters pay politicians a great deal of money to help them. He appeared on Bill Moneys Journal discussing the huge mess we know are in and how little is being done to hold those responsible for the enormous crisis created by them.

    Fraud is deceit. And the essence of fraud is, “I create trust in you, and then I betray that trust, and get you to give me something of value.” And as a result, there’s no more effective acid against trust than fraud, especially fraud by top elites, and that’s what we have.
    …
    The FBI publicly warned, in September 2004 that there was an epidemic of mortgage fraud, that if it was allowed to continue it would produce a crisis at least as large as the Savings and Loan debacle. And that they were going to make sure that they didn’t let that happen. So what goes wrong? After 9/11, the attacks, the Justice Department transfers 500 white-collar specialists in the FBI to national terrorism. Well, we can all understand that. But then, the Bush administration refused to replace the missing 500 agents. So even today, again, as you say, this crisis is 1000 times worse, perhaps, certainly 100 times worse, than the Savings and Loan crisis. There are one-fifth as many FBI agents as worked the Savings and Loan crisis.
    …
    Well, certainly in the financial sphere, I am. I think, first, the policies are substantively bad. Second, I think they completely lack integrity. Third, they violate the rule of law. This is being done just like Secretary Paulson did it. In violation of the law. We adopted a law after the Savings and Loan crisis, called the Prompt Corrective Action Law. And it requires them to close these institutions. And they’re refusing to obey the law.
    …
    In the Savings and Loan debacle, we developed excellent ways for dealing with the frauds, and for dealing with the failed institutions. And for 15 years after the Savings and Loan crisis, didn’t matter which party was in power, the U.S. Treasury Secretary would fly over to Tokyo and tell the Japanese, “You ought to do things the way we did in the Savings and Loan crisis, because it worked really well. Instead you’re covering up the bank losses, because you know, you say you need confidence. And so, we have to lie to the people to create confidence. And it doesn’t work. You will cause your recession to continue and continue.”
    …
    And their ideologies, which swept away regulation. So, in the example, regulation means that cheaters don’t prosper. So, instead of being bad for capitalism, it’s what saves capitalism. “Honest purveyors prosper” is what we want. And you need regulation and law enforcement to be able to do this. The tragedy of this crisis is it didn’t need to happen at all.

    Related: Fed Continues Wall Street Welfare – Credit Crisis the Result of Planned Looting of the World Economy – Lobbyists Keep Tax Off Billion Dollar Private Equities Deals – Poll: 60% say Depression Likely – Canadian Banks Avoid Failures Common Elsewhere – Too Big to Fail – Why Pay Taxes or be Honest

  • Tax Considerations with Mutual Fund Investments

    One problem with investing in mutual funds is potential tax bills. If the fund has invested well and say bought Google at $150 and then Google was at $700 (a few years ago) there is the potential tax liability of the $550 gain per share. So if funds have been successful (which is one reason you may want to invest in them) they often have had a large potential tax liability.

    With an open end mutual fund the price is calculated each day based on the net asset value, which is fair but really the true value if there is a large potential tax liability is less than if there was none. So in reality you had to believe the management would outperform enough to make up for the extra taxes that would be owed.

    Well, the drastic stock market decline over the last few years has turned this upside down and many mutual funds actual have tax losses that they have realized (which can be used to offset future capital gains). Say the fund had realized capital losses of $30,000,000 last year. Then if they have capital gains of $20,000,000 next year they can use the losses from last year and will not report any taxable capital gains. And the next year the first $10,000,000 in capital gains would be not table either. Business Week, had an article on this recently – Big Losers Can Be Big Tax Shelters

    Take Dodge & Cox International. It has a -80% capital-gains exposure, meaning it has a capital loss that covers 80% of assets. So it could have several years of tax-free gains.
    …
    Yet it is Miller’s newer charge, Legg Mason Opportunity, which holds stocks of all sizes and can take short positions, that will prove to be the real tax haven. Morningstar pegs its losses at 285% of its $1.2 billion in assets.
    …
    There are other funds with returns so ugly and losses so large that it may not matter what their trading style is for many years: Fidelity Select Electronics (FSELX), -539%; MFS Core Equity A, -369%; Janus Worldwide (JAWWX), -304%; Vanguard U.S. Growth (VWUSX), -227%.

    How does a fund have over 100% tax losses? The way I can think of is if they have a great deal of redemptions. If the fund shrinks in size from a $3 billion fund to a $300 million fund they could have a 50% realized capital loss (down to $750 million) but then another $450 million in redemptions). Now the $300 million has a $750 million capital loss or 250%.

    Related: Shorting Using Inverse Funds – Lazy Portfolio Results – Does a Declining Stock Market Worry You? – Asset Allocations Make A Big Difference

  • Curious Cat Investing and Economics Carnival #1

    I have been running the Curious Cat Management Management Improvement Carnival for several years and decided to start one on the investing and economics theme. I hope you enjoy the inaugural edition. If you like these posts you may also be interested in the Invest Reddit where a community of those interested in investing submit and rate articles and blog posts.

    • Case-Shiller: Is it Really THAT Bad? by Stan Humphries – “Unfortunately, in combining both foreclosures and non-foreclosures into a single metric, you’re not really getting a good insight into either market. In the current climate, you’re underestimating the decline in value of foreclosed homes and overestimating the decline in value of non-foreclosure homes.”
    • This is unquestionably the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s by Brad Setser – “Both the IMF and World Bank are now forecasting an outright fall in global output in 2009… Anything below 2% [growth] is generally considered a global recession.”
    • Value Added Tax (VAT): The Pros and Cons by Eric Stinson – “The VAT is also a consumption tax, so there is incentive for you to limit your spending. Like the Fair Tax, if you spend less than you make, you’ll pay less in taxes (all else equal).”
    • Face To Face With The Deficit by Scott Bittle – “The public simply will not permit Washington to raise their taxes, change their health insurance, or cut programs without their consent. Nor should they. But the public should understand the rules, too. It’s not enough to complain about red ink and then reject any possible solution.”
    • Confusing price discrimination – “Any way I think about it, the discount should either be to all consumers or to students for the entire day. Why would it be only to students in the afternoon?”
    • Leave Your Money in Your Retirement Accounts by Patrick – “At this point, the best thing you can do is stick to your retirement savings and investment plans. Continue contributing to your retirement accounts, make sure your asset allocation is set at your desired level, and don’t withdraw your retirement savings.”
    • Invisible Hands Explain Nothing: a response to a critic by Gavin Kennedy – “Indeed, Smith gives over 60 instances in Books I and II of Wealth Of Nations where the actions of individuals for their own ‘gain’ have less than beneficial consequences on those around them”

    A couple of my posts have appeared in other carnivals recently: California Unemployment Rate Climbs to 10.5 Percent in the Money Hacks Carnival and Add to Your 401(k) and IRA in the Carnival of Personal Finance.

    Related: Money Hacks Carnival #50 – Curious Cat Investing and Economics Search

  • A Banker Who Avoided Toxic Debt Bubble

    The Banker Who Said No

    n late 2006 he sold $74 million of preferred stock although he had no immediate use for the proceeds. He says he couldn’t resist the “stupidly mispriced” terms–as low as Libor plus 1.7 percentage points for 30 years. He wanted as much money available when the boom turned to bust. With the extra money the bank could pay off nearly all its depositors with capital on hand–nearly unheard of in the history of banking.

    Then came a shocker: Amid one of the most reckless lending sprees in history, regulators focused on the one bank that refused to play along. Beal’s moves confused and worried them, and so they began to probe him with questions. “What are you doing?” he recalls them asking. “You’re shrinking yet you’re raising capital?”

    Says Beal about the scrutiny, “I just didn’t fit into any box.” One regulator, the former head of the Texas Savings & Loan Department, Charles Danny Payne, says, “I was skeptical at first, but I’ve gained a lot of confidence over the years,” adding that Beal has an “uncanny ability to sniff out deals.”

    Next, the credit rating agencies started pestering him about his dwindling loan portfolio. They never downgraded him but scolded him for seeming not to have a “sustainable” business model. This while their colleagues were signing off on $32 billion of bum collateralized debt obligations issued by Merrill Lynch.
    …
    He thinks the government is going to be “disappointed” by its various programs to revive lending. He says Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to guarantee loans to buyers of toxic assets won’t lead to many sales because the problem isn’t liquidity but price. They are not low enough. Half the country’s banks–4,000 in all–would be bust, he says, if they marked their loans to what the loans would fetch in an auction. He says banks are fooling themselves by refusing to mark busted assets down.

    “Banks are on a prayer mission that somehow prices will come back and they won’t have to face reality,” Beal says. And that reality, according to Beal, is going to get a lot worse. “Unemployment is going over 10%, commercial real estate hasn’t even begun collapsing and corporate credit defaults are just getting started,” he says. His prediction: depression, without bread lines this time, thanks to the government safety net, but with equal cost to society.

    There are some (very few) who succeeded in not acting like lemmings. I wish someone would explain to me why people are worthy of millions in bonuses when they just do what every single other person in their position did that was also getting millions in bonuses. Obviously they were just practicing bankruptcy for profit (which worked out incredibly well for them) and still we seem to think the only solution is to support these moral bankrupt (and now commercially bankrupt) organizations and individuals.

    Related: What the Bailout and Stimulus Are and Are Not – Sound Canadian Banking System – More on Failed Executives – Jim Rogers on the Financial Market Mess

  • Small Business Profit and Cash Flow

    A couple posts by Jeff Vogel, founder of Spiderweb Software, discussing the financial success of his small computer gaming company are quite interesting. They provide a nice view of one successful small businesses’ finances and the customer focus and market awareness needed to succeed.

    How Many Games I Sell

    Releasing games for two platforms has always been the key to our profitability. Porting games is free money, and it’s awesome. I suppose this is the sort of thing we should keep secret, as it’ll only get us more competition on the Macintosh. But, on the other hand, more games makes the Macintosh more viable as a gaming platform and thus attracts more potential customers for me. So I don’t worry about it.
    …
    Geneforge 4 cost about $120K and has made about $117K. Given current sales rates, it should be in the black in at most 2-3 months. After that, everything it earns is pure, tasty profit. And we will sell it in bundles (we sell a Geneforge 4-5 bundle already, and a Geneforge 1-5 CD is coming), making more money. So I don’t regret the time spent writing it at all.

    And it gets better. What was my reward for the year spent writing Geneforge 4? It wasn’t just the cash. I also own the game! That means, in ten years or so, I can return to it, give it better graphics and interface, add a bonus 2-3 dungeons, and release it to a new generation of gamers. I’ve done it before, with my games Exile 1-3, Blades of Exile, and Nethergate, and the resulting products, since I didn’t need to write them from scratch, were immensely profitable.

    Don’t underestimate the value of owning your own intellectual property.
    …
    A lot of people have commented that I should lower the game’s price to $10. The idea that this would increase my profits is, I feel, purest nonsense. Bearing in mind that the percentage cost of credit card processing increases as the price goes down, and, to make the same profits from Geneforge 4, I would have had to triple my sales. Triple! As in, go from a conversation rate of about 1.5% to almost 5%. This is just not realistic.

    Or, to put it another way, Geneforge 4 was the game where we raised our prices to $28. Our sales did not go down from Geneforge 3 (which was $25). They went up. A lot. And Avernum 5 ($28) sold a lot more than Avernum 4 ($25).

    So Here’s How Many Games I Sell.

    It’s worthwhile at this point to go to the web site and look at the screenshots. Some of you might ask, “Why would anyone pay money for a game that looks like that?” The answer is, “I don’t know, but they do.”
    …
    But I think the most important thing to note is that Geneforge 4, after a few years, is almost in the black, and it continues to sell. In the long run, the time spent on it will be quite profitable. Despite the crude graphics. Despite the high price.

    A neat example, I think. he doesn’t specifically talk about cash flow but you can see that the business needs to pay salaries and sales come much later. So you need to have cash to sustain the business (which could be a loan, that then is paid back as sales are made). And then, as you have games that were developed earlier you get sales with very little cost to you in the present time (you paid for the bulk of the effort earlier).

    Related: posts on entrepreneurs – Entrepreneur in Ethiopia – Entrepreneur Results – Curious Cat Management Blog